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Thursday FJ yankee - owner Middle_of_March

  • Thread starter Thread starter Deleted member 4957
  • Start date Start date
Middle_Of_March said:
Not sorted a shortlist yet. Thinking of putting one of those up in a few days time.

Think the Pertempts and the Kim Muir are both lotteries so I’m ruling them two races out.


Means we need to find four horses from:
- JLT
- Ryanair
- Stayers
- Brown Plate
- Mares Novice


Hope nobody has an issue with this method.
Click to expand...

If I was having a bet now I'd think....

- JLT Invitation Only or Al Boum Photo - whichever Ruby is on to beat WC who is likely to be the fav... unless WC is 2nd fav and then I'd think WC was a much much much better bet.
- Ryanair - Fox Norton if we get to Sunday before and it looks like Good will be in the going
- Stayers - This one I think is hard to name a standout Sam Spinner by default as we KNOW we'd get a run for our money?
- Brown Plate - Tully East / The Storyteller Strong on both
- Mares Novice - Laurina obvious but that would be my selection
 
This brings up a good point, when do we get the selections normally? the morning of the race, the day before or much before.. just because like you said Kev, we would have no idea really what price WC and others until that morning I guess??
 
Sirbetalot said:
This brings up a good point, when do we get the selections normally? the morning of the race, the day before or much before.. just because like you said Kev, we would have no idea really what price WC and others until that morning I guess??
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We set it so the decision has to be made on the Sunday. That way anyone travelling down can get on
 
I have - Finians Oscar , Un De Sceaux , LAmi Serge , Laurina
 
IMO UDS is the most underrated horse in training and still value to me
I have no strong opinion on anything else
 
JLT - Invitation Only
Ryanair - Un De Sceaux
Stayers - Wholestone
Mares Novice - Laurina
 
JLT- Finians Oscar
Pertemps- Louis Van Pouch(If Calett Mad does not go here)
Ryanair- UDS (its being handed to him at this stage with the withdrawals)
Stayers- Worlds End
Plate- Tully East or De Plotting Shed
Mares Novice- Laurina
Kim Muir- Squaotateur
 
Having looked through the thread and the original threads, I’ve narrowed the 5 races I’ll chose from into these selections for each race. The Yankee will come from these selections.

JLT - Willougby Court (If fit), Invitation Only, Al Boum Photo or Finians Oscar

Ryanair - Un De Sceaux or Waiting Patiently (If he runs)

Stayers - L’Ami Serge or Supasundae

Brown Advisory Plate - Romain De Senam, Tully East or De Plotting Shed

Mares Novice - Laurina or Maria’s Benefit (If fit)





At this stage.. if I had to call it, I’d go each way yankee of:
- Finians Oscar @ 12/1 for the JLT
- L’Ami Serge @ 12/1 for the Stayers
- Tully East @ 8/1 for the Plate
- Maria’s Benefit @ 5/1 for the Mares Novice

The four fold for this pays 9125/1


But there’s plenty of time for me to be swayed yet
 
Middle_Of_March said:
At this stage.. if I had to call it, I’d go each way yankee of:
- Finians Oscar @ 12/1 for the JLT
- L’Ami Serge @ 12/1 for the Stayers
- Tully East @ 8/1 for the Plate
- Maria’s Benefit @ 5/1 for the Mares Novice

The four fold for this pays 9125/1


But there’s plenty of time for me to be swayed yet
Click to expand...

Aah but you’ve written it down - can’t change the bet now! :highly_amused:
 
I will feel sick if I have to back L'ami Serge.

The horse CANNOT win, so he isn't "each way value" either!

Henderson keeps pointing to the proof that he stays 3m in winning the French Champion hurdle.... he's beaten Alex De Larredya by 1.5L - who on his only trip to England was beaten 22L by UNWIMH. UNWIMH was 3rd in the Stayers... and had Shaneshill 10L back.... who is a decent enough animal, but pulled up in the Stayers Hurdle and was then beaten 38L by UNWIMH at Punchestown.

He might well have stayed 3m, but what REALLY has he beaten there. What on earth does winning the French champion hurdle prove in the context of the Stayers Hurdle at the Cheltenham festival. I don't think it is ridiculous to say VERY LITTLE.

Prior to that, he beat Ptit Zig over 2m5f at Sandown by a whopping.... 1.5L :highly_amused: ridden out to do so. Ptit Zig is alright.... a 149 rated horse at the time... exposed so no reason to dount that rating.... leave's L'ami WELL SHORT of Stayers Hurdle winning form.

If we go back a little further..... there are no wins that season... his best performance according to ratings, was being beaten by Agrapart over 2m4f at Cheltenham. Persoanlly I;'d have rated the 2nd to arctic Fire over 2m1f higher... but neither are 3m stayers hurdle winning form.

A heavy ground NOVICE CHASE run, a full 15 months between wins is how far we need to go back, over Run Ructions Run, who I've not heard of.

His attitude is pathetic. He came to win the JLT and got to the front, only to then get beaten not only for 1st, but second too. There are numerous examples of his attitude, I odn't tink anyone disputes that? (If you do, I'll go in to more detail)...

His "prep" for the Stayers hurdle...was a handicap chase where he didn't have the ability or attitude or "luck" to beat Wakanda. WAKANDA? Even if he'd won (which he absolutely should have), that is a poor prep....the fact he couldn't win is just embarassing.

How on earth anyone could think this horse can win the Stayers hurdle absolutely baffles me.

There is literally not one piece of form you can point to that gives him a shot of winning...and if you think the French champion hurdle proves it.... and you believe HEnderson on the matter...you should remind yourself that Charli Parcs and Jenkins are also not grade 1 festival winners.

L'ami Serge?
Really?
You CAN'T make me back it?!
 
Viking Flagship said:
Assuming we’re going each way on these then L’Ami Serge looks almost nailed on for a place. Bound to come there cruising and then get outbattled!! Still, at 12/1, it’s like having a 3/1 winner!
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Not a personal thing at all here VF... just making my point :very_drunk:

12/1 to place is NOT like having a 3/1 winner - it is an EVEN money winner.

£10 e/w at 12/1 - costs you £20 to make the bet.
1/4 the odds, 3/1 and the horse places - £10 at 3/1 = £40

Total stake = £20
Return if places = £40

£20 at evens for L'ami Serge to place
 
Kevloaf said:
I will feel sick if I have to back L'ami Serge.

The horse CANNOT win, so he isn't "each way value" either!

Henderson keeps pointing to the proof that he stays 3m in winning the French Champion hurdle.... he's beaten Alex De Larredya by 1.5L - who on his only trip to England was beaten 22L by UNWIMH. UNWIMH was 3rd in the Stayers... and had Shaneshill 10L back.... who is a decent enough animal, but pulled up in the Stayers Hurdle and was then beaten 38L by UNWIMH at Punchestown.

He might well have stayed 3m, but what REALLY has he beaten there. What on earth does winning the French champion hurdle prove in the context of the Stayers Hurdle at the Cheltenham festival. I don't think it is ridiculous to say VERY LITTLE.

Prior to that, he beat Ptit Zig over 2m5f at Sandown by a whopping.... 1.5L :highly_amused: ridden out to do so. Ptit Zig is alright.... a 149 rated horse at the time... exposed so no reason to dount that rating.... leave's L'ami WELL SHORT of Stayers Hurdle winning form.

If we go back a little further..... there are no wins that season... his best performance according to ratings, was being beaten by Agrapart over 2m4f at Cheltenham. Persoanlly I;'d have rated the 2nd to arctic Fire over 2m1f higher... but neither are 3m stayers hurdle winning form.

A heavy ground NOVICE CHASE run, a full 15 months between wins is how far we need to go back, over Run Ructions Run, who I've not heard of.

His attitude is pathetic. He came to win the JLT and got to the front, only to then get beaten not only for 1st, but second too. There are numerous examples of his attitude, I odn't tink anyone disputes that? (If you do, I'll go in to more detail)...

His "prep" for the Stayers hurdle...was a handicap chase where he didn't have the ability or attitude or "luck" to beat Wakanda. WAKANDA? Even if he'd won (which he absolutely should have), that is a poor prep....the fact he couldn't win is just embarassing.

How on earth anyone could think this horse can win the Stayers hurdle absolutely baffles me.

There is literally not one piece of form you can point to that gives him a shot of winning...and if you think the French champion hurdle proves it.... and you believe HEnderson on the matter...you should remind yourself that Charli Parcs and Jenkins are also not grade 1 festival winners.

L'ami Serge?
Really?
You CAN'T make me back it?!
Click to expand...


His attitude was much much better last time out at donny. He battled to the line and if he’d have got the gap he’d have won. His Cheltenham record is excellent and we know joe course form helps at the festival.

At 12/1, I think he’s the solid each way angle to the race. The fact he’s been the most popular horse on this thread is why I’m leaning in his direction and not because I actually fancy him myself (though I do as it goes).
 
Middle_Of_March said:
His attitude was much much better last time out at donny. He battled to the line and if he’d have got the gap he’d have won. His Cheltenham record is excellent and we know joe course form helps at the festival.

At 12/1, I think he’s the solid each way angle to the race. The fact he’s been the most popular horse on this thread is why I’m leaning in his direction and not because I actually fancy him myself (though I do as it goes).
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It isn't a vote though, or I'd just make a poll and we can vote for it race by race, horse by horse... you are the manager, you've gotta make the tough choices ;)

His attitude was better I agree... it was still not good enough to beat handicappers which is NOT good enough to win a stayers hurdle

His good course form at Cheltenham is all over shorter... I don't think he's an out and out stayer. He can't be looking at his form.

For me, each way you need the chance of winning or it to be a wild price. 12/1 to place works out at evens... Would I place lay L'ami Serge at evens, No probably not... would I lay him to win at 25/1 ... yes, honestly.
 
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Kevloaf said:
It isn't a vote though, or I'd just make a poll and we can vote for it race by race, horse by horse... you are the manager, you've gotta make the tough choices ;)

His attitude was better I agree... it was still not good enough to beat handicappers which is NOT good enough to win a stayers hurdle

His good course form at Cheltenham is all over shorter... I don't think he's an out and out stayer. He can't be looking at his form.

For me, each way you need the chance of winning or it to be a wild price. 12/1 to place works out at evens... Would I place lay L'ami Serge at evens, No probably not... would I lay him to win at 25/1 ... yes, honestly.
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The thing is thlugh, from the five races, his name for the Stayers has been far far more popular on thisnthread than any other. That sort of popularity means I feel he has to be considered at the very least.

I’ve not seen an alternative to him put up with a better argument as to why they are more value than L’Ami serge. As you say, I have to make the tough choices so may have to overrule you here Kev ;)
 
Kevloaf said:
It isn't a vote though, or I'd just make a poll and we can vote for it race by race, horse by horse... you are the manager, you've gotta make the tough choices ;)

His attitude was better I agree... it was still not good enough to beat handicappers which is NOT good enough to win a stayers hurdle

His good course form at Cheltenham is all over shorter... I don't think he's an out and out stayer. He can't be looking at his form.

For me, each way you need the chance of winning or it to be a wild price. 12/1 to place works out at evens... Would I place lay L'ami Serge at evens, No probably not... would I lay him to win at 25/1 ... yes, honestly.
Click to expand...

Stop harassing the selector Kev, you can pick next year :) ...
 
Kemboy ;)
Glenloe
UDS
Penhill
Tully East
Laurina
-
 
Kevloaf said:
Not a personal thing at all here VF... just making my point :very_drunk:

12/1 to place is NOT like having a 3/1 winner - it is an EVEN money winner.

£10 e/w at 12/1 - costs you £20 to make the bet.
1/4 the odds, 3/1 and the horse places - £10 at 3/1 = £40

Total stake = £20
Return if places = £40

£20 at evens for L'ami Serge to place
Click to expand...

Ha! No offence taken Kev!

Tbh you sound more strongly against L’ami Serge than I am for him, I don’t claim to be his no.1 fan but will stand his ground for sake of debate. So to just counter the point you make about not having the form in the book, I would suggest that being the only horse to get within hailing distance of Sam Spinner in the Long Walk and beating the 2nd and 3rd from the previous season’s Stayers in the process, gives him every right to be considered a potential winner, particularly considering this is a trip at which he remains unexposed.

The Ptit Zig race at Sandown... there was a further 7 1/2 lengths back to The New One, one of the most consistent horses in training. And further back to a 156 rated Modus who’s now touted as a JLT horse. All of a sudden that form is not looking to shabby to me.

I agree with your comments about attitude, it’s been there for all to see on a few occasions, but I think the assassination of his form is harsh.

Anyway, I’ll put my tin hat on for the reply ;)
 
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