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The ULTIMA Handicap Chase

Muswell said:
Johnson has 23 festival winners fourth most ever it’s not that bad?
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Has he really?? I’ve always been under the impression his record at the Cheltenham Festival was poor....I stand corrected and will get the winch ready to wind my neck back in!!!! I’m wrong so Aye Right it is then
 
Istabraq said:
No cashout but the betfair market is maturing all the time so you can trade your position on the exchange...
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I’ve still not worked out how to lay on the exchanges....this is the 5th festival where I’ve not sorted out learning how to do this by the time it starts I just keep adding bets until I’ve guaranteed myself a win, just like turning up the water pressure instead of trying to fix the hole in the hose pipe!!
 
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The King Pimm said:
I’ve still not worked out how to lay on the exchanges....this is the 5th festival where I’ve not sorted out learning how to do this by the time it starts I just keep adding bets until I’ve guaranteed myself a win, just like turning up the water pressure instead of trying to fix the hole in the hose pipe!!
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They used to have an education/learn how to trade video on the website, not sure it’s still there but worth looking...
 
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Kevloaf said:
I feel like these horses have no chance, or shown nothing at all to make them appealing at the prices

No hopers

Soupy Soups
Fingerontheswitch
The Wolf
Nietzsche
Delire DEstruval
Admirals Secret
Ok Corral - clutching at a 2019 win over Secret Investor... beat Fingerontheswitch who I give no chance and trainer claimed it was because of the flatter track.... PU in the NH Chase.... can't see it!


Ones you could give a chance too, if they drifted

Discordantly - only in this list because hasn't completed the last twice and going fine in the Thystes..... short at 16s though at the moment given that is the angle.
Pym - beat If The Cap Fits.... which is, just, alright. If he drifted I would be interested but 14/1 is a tiny bit tight
Alnadam - never tried 3 miles. He's progressive but 12/1? Sick emoji!


Ones worth considering 7 places...

Vintage Clouds at 16/1 - placed in this race off 141 and 144 - currently 143. Was 8th last year off of 151.

Cepage at 12/1 - came 7th last year, 3 lbs higher now BUT if there is any 'good' in the going, would he hold on a bit longer? Not like he has a ground preference from what I can see, but I really fancy he'll run to his rating, and are there 7 horses we can find better than him?! Now he's a bit older, perhaps the trip is what he needs? (can't you tell I really want to back this horse)

Pym I suppose at 14/1 despite being in the above, you'd consider him as not sure 7 are better.

Milan Native 9/1 - 7 places - Kim Muir winner.... he's not gonna be out of the first 7.

Aye Right 11/2 - 7 places, good jockey booking, obvious claims.

One For The Team - 11/2 - 7 places, the run behind Next Destination is what's interesting (RELATED DOUBLE ALERT) .... I'd definitely, definitely fancy Next Destination more if OFTT has won the Ultima, that's a good'un....the trainer and this race deserve a mention but he is a bit short perhaps?

Happygolucky - 100% in the first 7 if completing.








So essentially, I'm tempted to back Vintage Clouds again, and am leaning towards getting perhaps Pym and Cepage backed 7 places....

Now obviously the ones I've ruled out are the bigger prices, but I tried really hard and couldn't see any angle at all other than leaps of faith. Niezsche in particular, what on earth is he doing in this race.
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I actually give The Wolf a small ew squeak. Like most I’m on HGL ew at all rates down so not wanting to overly analyse & find others as I genuinely think he wins. The Wolf however caught my eye for a few obvious reasons: Olly Murphy target training, owner representative after switching ET to NHC, comes from that red hot potato race last year. Fancy he’ll run on into a place so had a few bob ew but this race is all about HGL - would start the week off brilliantly as in so many multiples at fancy prices too!
 
I thought I had backed Milan Native at 25/1 for this back in early February but I can’t find the bet anywhere......I’m gutted as the price has shortened massively :upset:
 
The King Pimm said:
I thought I had backed Milan Native at 25/1 for this back in early February but I can’t find the bet anywhere......I’m gutted as the price has shortened massively :upset:
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....perhaps it’s in your Grand National bets. Let’s hope it wins and you find a nice surprise in your balance.
 
Splinterboy82 said:
I actually give The Wolf a small ew squeak. Like most I’m on HGL ew at all rates down so not wanting to overly analyse & find others as I genuinely think he wins. The Wolf however caught my eye for a few obvious reasons: Olly Murphy target training, owner representative after switching ET to NHC, comes from that red hot potato race last year. Fancy he’ll run on into a place so had a few bob ew but this race is all about HGL - would start the week off brilliantly as in so many multiples at fancy prices too!
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He's on my radar in the place market. Watch the AB last year and made a bad mistake at the end and must have flew up the hill. Nicer ground will suit. If I can get 6/1 or higher for top 4 he's a solid bet.

*7.7 on Betfair Place Market so taken some of that.
 
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Kevloaf said:
I feel like these horses have no chance, or shown nothing at all to make them appealing at the prices

No hopers

Soupy Soups
Fingerontheswitch
The Wolf
Nietzsche
Delire DEstruval
Admirals Secret
Ok Corral - clutching at a 2019 win over Secret Investor... beat Fingerontheswitch who I give no chance and trainer claimed it was because of the flatter track.... PU in the NH Chase.... can't see it!


Ones you could give a chance too, if they drifted

Discordantly - only in this list because hasn't completed the last twice and going fine in the Thystes..... short at 16s though at the moment given that is the angle.
Pym - beat If The Cap Fits.... which is, just, alright. If he drifted I would be interested but 14/1 is a tiny bit tight
Alnadam - never tried 3 miles. He's progressive but 12/1? Sick emoji!


Ones worth considering 7 places...

Vintage Clouds at 16/1 - placed in this race off 141 and 144 - currently 143. Was 8th last year off of 151.

Cepage at 12/1 - came 7th last year, 3 lbs higher now BUT if there is any 'good' in the going, would he hold on a bit longer? Not like he has a ground preference from what I can see, but I really fancy he'll run to his rating, and are there 7 horses we can find better than him?! Now he's a bit older, perhaps the trip is what he needs? (can't you tell I really want to back this horse)

Pym I suppose at 14/1 despite being in the above, you'd consider him as not sure 7 are better.

Milan Native 9/1 - 7 places - Kim Muir winner.... he's not gonna be out of the first 7.

Aye Right 11/2 - 7 places, good jockey booking, obvious claims.

One For The Team - 11/2 - 7 places, the run behind Next Destination is what's interesting (RELATED DOUBLE ALERT) .... I'd definitely, definitely fancy Next Destination more if OFTT has won the Ultima, that's a good'un....the trainer and this race deserve a mention but he is a bit short perhaps?

Happygolucky - 100% in the first 7 if completing.








So essentially, I'm tempted to back Vintage Clouds again, and am leaning towards getting perhaps Pym and Cepage backed 7 places....

Now obviously the ones I've ruled out are the bigger prices, but I tried really hard and couldn't see any angle at all other than leaps of faith. Niezsche in particular, what on earth is he doing in this race.
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Excellent summary of the race Kev. Of your 'No hopes' though; the only one of interest for me is Fingerontheswitch.

Only beause: 7/8 last winners have worn some form of headgear, which is a fairly notable stat. Wears cheekpices.
Also: Millie Wonnacott - has a strike rate of 22% which is decent and is riding pretty well at the minute (from albeit a fairly limited number of rides).

Worth an EW poke if Sky still paying 7 places on the day.
 
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RufusFlynn said:
Excellent summary of the race Kev. Of your 'No hopes' though; the only one of interest for me is Fingerontheswitch.

Only beause: 7/8 last winners have worn some form of headgear, which is a fairly notable stat. Wears cheekpices.
Also: Millie Wonnacott - has a strike rate of 22% which is decent and is riding pretty well at the minute (from albeit a fairly limited number of rides).

Worth an EW poke if Sky still paying 7 places on the day.
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Yeh I didn't factor the headgear stat in to be fair but I'm still pretty happy that on balance he's not going to be winning the race.

I remember backing Singlefarmpayment 10 places in this race and it not landing :indecisiveness:
 
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Worrying stat for this is the performance of 7 year olds. The only 7 year olds to win this the last 10 years have been G1 level hurdlers effectively thrown in compared to what they had achieved over hurdles.
 
I’ve played the combination tricast, just small stakes.

Happygolucky, Aye Right, Alnadam.
 
The trends point to Aye Right, Pym, Milan Native and Happygolucky and each one has sound form claims in the going. Milan Native seems out of form in his last 2 runs. Pym's jumping can be good or not so good but in value for money order:

Pym/Aye Right/Happygolucky
 
Unlucky chaps a couple of sloppy jumps at a crucial stage made all the difference, not a copper coin myself but no one cheered as loud as me.
 
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Sometimes when your horses are being beaten you still cheer for the winner. That was a Vintage (Clouds) performance for the redoubtable Sue Smith and Trevor Hemmings as well as Ryan Mania
Bringing back the Mister McGoldrick memories. Try, try and try again!

Happygolucky made some niggling jumping errors at awkward times and had to be ridden to challenge. All the placed horses ran creditably.
Better jumping won.

Result:
1 Vintage Clouds 28/1
2 Happygolucky 100/30
3 Aye Right 11/2
4 Cepage 14/1
 
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The brilliant grey does it. Majestic.
 
One of the horses Trevor Hemmings hasn't sold yet, easy in hindsight ain't it.
 
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