….Jamie Codd;
I’ve found this division a struggle to get a grip of all season long, and it hasn’t got a whole lot easier after declarations. Of the market leaders, it’s hard not to be impressed by what Old Park Star has delivered visually on the track so far, while the talk from the Willie Mullins camp about Mighty Park has been unbelievable.
On the latter, the same can be said about
EL CAIROS (15-2) from the team at Cullentra, and he gets the vote from me to deliver the goods in this year’s Festival opener. Gordon Elliott just thinks this is an extremely fast horse, and Jack Kennedy has been vocal about what’s under the bonnet too.
I understand why there are doubts about him, but the incident at Leopardstown first time up was just bizarre, and while he wasn’t foot perfect at Thurles either, he wouldn’t be the first novice to have made a mistake while still learning his trade.
I’m sure he’ll have been well-schooled since, and he’s been to Cheltenham before and run well when fifth in the bumper last year, so he has that experience of the track under his belt too. If he’s in the mix jumping the last, I’m excited to see what he can do on the run in.
I’d also give a shout to
Leader D’Allier (14-1), who looks a different type of horse to El Cairos. If it’s a speed test, that could suit El Cairos, but if the race turns more stamina-sapping, then Leader D’Allier could run well. He was a short-price when second to Ballyfad at Christmas, but has since hosed up, and looks an improving horse.
While the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle looks a tricky race to weigh up, the Arkle looks more straightforward to me, and I think
KOPEK DES BORDES (6-4) will be very hard to stop. Yes, Lulamba arrives here with a tried and tested prep, but over this trip I feel Kopek Des Bordes will have too much class and speed.
I loved what he did at Navan on chase debut. He jumped well and stretched away really impressively. The way Willie Mullins talks about him certainly grabs your attention, and by all accounts he’s schooled well around some of Ireland’s biggest tracks in the past few months, working with and racing against good horses. With that in mind, I don’t see his lack of experience over fences as a huge issue. Willie will have him right, and I think he’ll win.
Gavin Cromwell’s
OLE OLE has been narrowly beaten in all his career starts to date, and he appeals as an each-way option at 22-1 in a place in a typically wide-open Fred Winter. He hasn’t done a lot wrong in any of those runs, looking the winner last time at Leopardstown before being picked-off late.
He might have found himself in front a little earlier than ideal that day, but he travelled into the race really sweetly, also impressing with his slick jumping. I think the big field and strong pace will suit him, and he hasn’t been over burdened by the British handicapper either.
Of the British,
The Mighty Celt (18-1) shaped well on really heavy ground at Haydock last time on what was his first run for the Skeltons, having not been with that formidable team too long. He was giving weight to some useful horses there, and it just looked a bit of a fact-finding mission to me. He’s better off with Manlaga and Pourquoi Pa Papa here, and he’s worth a look at a big-price too.
Paul Nicholls is 0-25 with his runners in the Ultima, but perhaps he’s about to buck that trend with
QUEBECOIS (10-1), who looks a really interesting runner. After a slow enough start to the year, he got right back on-track when second by a whisker on Cheltenham Trials Day, and after a spin around Newbury over an inadequate trip last time, he looks ready for the step-back up to three miles.
He’s a winner over this sort of distance over hurdles, and given the fact he’s a half-brother to an Albert Bartlett winner in Brindizi Breeze, you’d expect he’s got the stamina in the locker for this test. Drying ground will help him too, and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t have a few lbs in hand off a mark of 139.
Lossiemouth finally gets her chance to shine in the Champion Hurdle, but I struggle to see her turning the tables with
BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD (9-2), who I fancy strongly. I was up at Gordon Elliott’s the other week, and I was blown away by her to be honest. She looked absolutely fantastic, and I’m a believer in all the talk about her better preparation being key in advance of this year’s Festival.
However, I’m not a believer in the notion that she doesn’t like Cheltenham. She was giving 5lbs when second to Golden Ace in the Mares’ Novices Hurdle of 2024, and just didn’t give her running in last year’s Champion Hurdle.
Tactically, I think the race could be run to suit too. You’d expect Tutti Quanti will get on with things in front and this mare will keep it simple and sit in second or third. She looked in great order when winning the Irish Champion Hurdle, and if the real Brighterdaysahead turns up on Tuesday, I think she wins.
Of her rivals, The New Lion worries me most. While his chief rivals (Constitution Hill and Sir Gino) failed to complete in both The New Lion’s races this year, that actually meant the contests didn’t suit the Skelton horse tactically. He was left in front at Newcastle, and the Cheltenham race turned into a real sprint. That win in the International was clearly a stepping stone to the Champion Hurdle, and he’s a big contender for sure.
“Willie Mullins doesn’t win handicap chases at the Cheltenham Festival!” That’s a stat you hear plenty at this time of year, but this is Willie Mullins we’re talking about, so surely it’s just a matter of time? I’m hoping so anyway, as I fancy
O’MOORE PARK (20-1) to run well in the Plate, just as he did when third to Caldwell Potter at 66-1 in the Jack Richards Novices’ Chase last year.
This might not be one of the brightest lights turning up at Prestbury Park in the Ricci colours, but he’s got some good snippets of form to his name. He was fifth to Favori De Champdou over the extended three miles at Leopardstown at Christmas, and second to the very smart Oscar’s Brother at Galway on seasonal debut at Galway.
Granted, his last run was underwhelming, but perhaps the ground was a little soft for him that day. He seems better on a sounder surface as he showed at this meeting last year, and a month later when second in the Silver Trophy. He’s a prominent racer, and it often pays to be up with the pace in this race, so I’m expecting him to give punters a decent spin for their money at nice odds.
This race has a different look to it these days. I was lucky enough to win the old National Hunt Chase on Le Breuil for Ben Pauling, who looks to have a decent shot at more glory in the race with
PIC ROC (16-1). I’d say this is quite a talented horse when he puts it all together. He’s been well to the fore of the market in big handicaps all season, including when sent off just 6-1 for the Coral Gold Cup, so there must be a few people that agree with me.
His wide-margin win at Sandown last time suggested to me that there might still be more in the locker when the horse goes up in trip, and he gets that extra distance here. If ridden more prominently again, he might not be done with off his revised mark.
