The Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[Spectre]

He looks a good jockey for sure but you’re still trading weight for experience and proven quality. If it was that easy then all the handicaps would be won by conditionals.

It’s a fair point, but if you knew in advance, you’d have had a young AP on your horse as a 7lb claimer in a heartbeat. This lad will be Champion jockey one day.

 

[Spectre]

So out of interest - What odds do people think would be offered on Jordan G 2+ festival winners?

Q/TBO double is best priced 48/1 or 43/1 NRNB

Any price you like probably Mite Bite. The bookies won’t have a clue.

 

[ToniC]

The clue was in this post earlier for those that read it properly earlier Toni. I think pretty much everyone missed exactly what it was saying. #394

you may know more than me mate as I must admit I have no inside track on any decision making; how would you price up the market on him to run in the boodles? Id have him fairly long odds on to go the triumph, but like I say I don’t actually know anything

 

[ComplyOrDie]

So out of interest - What odds do people think would be offered on Jordan G 2+ festival winners?

Q/TBO double is best priced 48/1 or 43/1 NRNB

Get it priced :smile-new:

 

[Spectre]

you may know more than me mate as I must admit I have no inside track on any decision making; how would you price up the market on him to run in the boodles? Id have him fairly long odds on to go the triumph, but like I say I don’t actually know anything

I’d say he’ll go off 6/4-7/4

 

[ComplyOrDie]

That’s what I thought although wasn’t sure he was in an earlier batch of ‘entries’ by Gordon when he was fishing. The claimer angle is interesting but do they have a good record of winning races at the festival (serious question)?

I'm not sure what the answer is, but I wonder how many have been given the chance on a favourite though?

 

[ToniC]

I’d say he’ll go off 6/4-7/4

What price would you make him to line up? Or are you saying it’s a certainty he lines up in the Fred winter?

 

[JackieMoon33]

It’s a fair point, but if you knew in advance, you’d have had a young AP on your horse as a 7lb claimer in a heartbeat. This lad will be Champion jockey one day.

But was the conditional AP as good as the champion AP?

In more recent times Jack Kennedy was a great conditional but I’m sure he’s improved since then.

Just playing devils advocate as, although I’d find it strange, the money worries me that you could be right. I’ve only got Q backed in the Triumph but was one of my earliest bets of the season; I’d be gutted for it to fall at the final hurdle so to speak.

 

[Spectre]

That’s easier, 1/10.

 

[JackieMoon33]

I'm not sure what the answer is, but I wonder how many have been given the chance on a favourite though?

But isn’t not getting the rides on the favourites a pointer in itself that trainers would rather an established, experienced jockey?

 

[Spectre]

But was the conditional AP as good as the champion AP?

In more recent times Jack Kennedy was a great conditional but I’m sure he’s improved since then.

Just playing devils advocate as, although I’d find it strange, the money worries me that you could be right. I’ve only got Q backed in the Triumph but was one of my earliest bets of the season; I’d be gutted for it to fall out the final hurdle so to speak.

You’re right to question it Jackie, and the point you make is fair.

 

[JackieMoon33]

You’re right to question it Jackie, and the point you make is fair.

The perils of ante post betting :biggrin-new:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

But isn’t not getting the rides on the favourites a pointer in itself that trainers would rather an established, experienced jockey?

Of course, experience can be key, but Gordon will have his own opinion of Jordan, if he feels he's good enough to ride festival winners for him that's good enough for me.

The market has done nothing but suggest Quilixios runs here, in the past week or so. He'll go off favourite and then we will see if it was the right decision or not :smile-new:

 

[Outlaw]

In a race when so many hide their ability once trainers realise they perhaps are not one of the leading talents of their generation. I struggle to envisage a horse going off 6/4 in this,am I alone in that ?

 

[JackieMoon33]

Of course, experience can be key, but Gordon will have his own opinion of Jordan, if he feels he's good enough to ride festival winners for him that's good enough for me.

The market has done nothing but suggest Quilixios runs here, in the past week or so. He'll go off favourite and then we will see if it was the right decision or not :smile-new:

Money and of lesser importance, the Twitter whispers, certainly seem to point in this direction. I’d still find it bizarre though, even without my ante post bet. I’ve got my selection for this race and won’t change now to Q at these prices.

 

[Lobos]

Money and of lesser importance, the Twitter whispers, certainly seem to point in this direction. I’d still find it bizarre though, even without my ante post bet. I’ve got my selection for this race and won’t change now to Q at these prices.

I won't change my selection, GZ, but I'll be adding Quixilos as he'd murder him even giving him a stone.

 

[Might_Bite]

It is a bit hard for me to believe that the highest rated top weight ever in a competitve festival handicap would go off shorter than 2/1. Even 3/1?

 

[JackieMoon33]

I won't change my selection, GZ, but I'll be adding Quixilos as he'd murder him even giving him a stone.

Personally I’d want to know Q official mark before lumping him at a short price. Either way I’m happy to let him win without carrying my cash. I have my value elsewhere and won’t deviate as I’d factored Q in when making that selection.

 

[Kevloaf]

Personally I’d want to know Q official mark before lumping him at a short price. Either way I’m happy to let him win without carrying my cash. I have my value elsewhere and won’t deviate as I’d factored Q in when making that selection.

What price do you think Q would go off in the Boodles?

I feel like I can see a back-to-lay in him even at his current price!

 

[Quevega]

I still have a difficult time believing this will happen, especially that it is set in stone, when so much can still happen in the next fortnight.
However, the rumours and price movement suggest it's under serious consideration and can see the angle using a conditional, especially with Elliot short of one of his special jockeys.

I'd be very annoyed if I was one of his other older Pro jockeys, as it doesn't say much for them.
If the horse can win a competitive handicap off clear top weight with a jockey who's won 7 races, then surely he'd go close in the triumph with an experienced Pro on board.

Keen to see his weight allocation, and conditional or not, these juvenile ratings can be very wishy washy and I actually wouldn't fancy the horse much anyway.
Not at 6-1 or below. Potentially giving weight of around 10-20lbs to something that's been campaigned for the race. If you know what I mean.

The selling job from Gordon, assuming it's his idea to persuade Cheveley Park to allow him to run a grade 1 winner off top weight in a handicap, with a conditional on board, on the new course, on potentially the slowest ground of the week, is a good one.

Especially as Cheveley Park described the horse as a stayer chaser for the future, more of a staying type and would be better on good ground. - (Triumph type)

It's certainly a curve ball and I feel for the people who were on him early.
I wasn't and just had a saver special on the Dublin festival double.
I'll actually prefer it if he doesn't run run the triumph as I have the others at fancy prices.

The Negative for me would be the bets I've made in the Boodles, as the pressure for this horse to win will be immense, so in that regard the 6-1 people took and the prices right now are kind of value, in a perverse way.
And I would be concerned as to the chance of his other runners, however, these horses have owners also. Does he persuade some of them not to run with some cock arsed excuse ?