• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

MR being backed on exchanges for Supreme.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
I personally believe he could win either race in the absence of MR. He certainly isn't short of speed, and is a much speedier type than Samcro to my eyes... Whilst there is plenty of stamina on the dam's side, he's by a crack miler after all.
Click to expand...

Think that might be a touch of the recency bias with that assumption, certainly dont mean to offend but people are forgetting how good Samcro was in that Ballymore and how much speed he showed.

In fact just for some substance ive dug out Simon Rowlands piece on him
"The Gordon Elliott trained 6 year old had not set the stopwatch on fire when winning at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown but could not be faulted here, running the 2 miles and 5 furlongs 2.3 seconds quicker than the useful handicapper Blue Berry did winning the Coral Cup but carrying 5lbs more.
That pushes Samcro up to 161, which is comfortably top of the novice hurdlers and within touching distance of Champion Hurdle winning class."
 
There's no way EA would still be the price he is currently in the Supreme if they were going that route and especially if MR was injured. The relentless amount of money for him in the Ballymore speaks volumes.
 
billymag said:
Think that might be a touch of the recency bias with that assumption, certainly dont mean to offend but people are forgetting how good Samcro was in that Ballymore and how much speed he showed.

In fact just for some substance ive dug out Simon Rowlands piece on him
"The Gordon Elliott trained 6 year old had not set the stopwatch on fire when winning at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown but could not be faulted here, running the 2 miles and 5 furlongs 2.3 seconds quicker than the useful handicapper Blue Berry did winning the Coral Cup but carrying 5lbs more.
That pushes Samcro up to 161, which is comfortably top of the novice hurdlers and within touching distance of Champion Hurdle winning class."
Click to expand...

Fair point billy. I wasnt particularity suggesting that Samcro is slow per se... just that EA appears a speedier type to me.
 
Lobos said:
There's no way EA would still be the price he is currently in the Supreme if they were going that route and especially if MR was injured. The relentless amount of money for him in the Ballymore speaks volumes.
Click to expand...

To be clear, I dont think this is happening! Im getting the horse well ahead of the cart here.... And am seriously hoping it doesn't for my position... but if MR was to be injured and miss Chelts, I don't think anyone could rule it out.
 
Elliot would have Andy Dufresne for the Supreme who I think would be better suited than EA
 
What is it that makes people think Andy Dufresne is a Supreme horse? Is there substance to this or does it suit their view that they want Envoi Allen to run in the Ballymore?

Personally I'd think both would be at their best in the Ballymore and as they have different owners, I don't think they'll be deliberately kept apart either. Andy Dufresne came from the a point background and his size and breeding would suggest middle distances to me.
 
I agree Jackie. I see Andy Dufresne as a Ballymore type primarily and have backed accordingly. I think this debate has run away with itself based on the rumours about MR and his well being....

Assuming Malone Road is fit and well and makes Cheltenham then this is almost certainly a pointless debate. At the start of the season we would, no doubt all agree, it was quite clear cut... Malone Road to the Supreme and Envoi Allen to the Ballymore as their best novices and the others would fit in where best suited them.

But if MR doesnt make it to the Festival and the rumoured injury is worse than expected, then as we stand I would suggest EA and AD could be his two best novices. Its quite possible they could be significantly better than the rest. So even if they have different owners, would he fire both bullets in the same race?

Obviously its pure hot air at the minute and a lot of water to travel under a lot of bridges. But its certainly muddied what appeared to be crystal clear waters.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
What is it that makes people think Andy Dufresne is a Supreme horse? Is there substance to this or does it suit their view that they want Envoi Allen to run in the Ballymore?

Personally I'd think both would be at their best in the Ballymore and as they have different owners, I don't think they'll be deliberately kept apart either. Andy Dufresne came from the a point background and his size and breeding would suggest middle distances to me.
Click to expand...

Agree, no idea where people are getting it from. They've watched him a horse once, maybe twice if you've seen his point to come up with the judgement hes a 2miler!
 
jack1092 said:
Agree, no idea where people are getting it from. They've watched him a horse once, maybe twice if you've seen his point to come up with the judgement hes a 2miler!
Click to expand...

Part and parcel of antepost betting on the novice races though.
 
Elliott has others, but we seems hell bent on believing EA, MR & AD are his only 3 it would seem.

One that would interest me would be Festival D'ex if anything were to happen to MR, despite Elliott thinking he'd be one for 2 1/2.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Elliott has others, but we seems hell bent on believing EA, MR & AD are his only 3 it would seem.

One that would interest me would be Festival D'ex if anything were to happen to MR, despite Elliott thinking he'd be one for 2 1/2.
Click to expand...

That's true, he had some great bumper winners last year, but as i've said re EA and his price before, Mullin's literally had FA bumper runners, he has a raft to come, yet many including me at times, have already awarded Elliot the Supreme/Ballymore double :)
 
I bet theres a fair bit of traffic on the hri site looking for 1 particular race.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Elliott has others, but we seems hell bent on believing EA, MR & AD are his only 3 it would seem.

One that would interest me would be Festival D'ex if anything were to happen to MR, despite Elliott thinking he'd be one for 2 1/2.
Click to expand...

Love Festival D’Ex’s Punchestown run COD. Definitely could be progressive and have a Festival chance, along with many more.

I think it’s too easy to form entrenched opinions from March/April bumper form and project it forward to the new season and Novice Hurdle chances, and specific targets.

As we know nothing is certain until races are run, and I imagine the majority of our antepost bets to date will fail to run or to win, no matter how much we believe and hope they will succeed.

The antepost plan that some of us have developed is to seek out longer priced runners who could have a plummeting price if they come out and win well on their first one or two runs. That’s what I am seeking at this point, and to keep an open mind on all possibilities for the Festival (different race targets for horses, multiple options of race winners, effects of different ground, horses switching targets if stable are injured/loses form, etc).

I do smile when I see bold predictions of definite winners for Festival races and distinct targets (Supreme not Ballymore etc). I have long based my book around a wider selection of chances for the Festival to avoid a crash and burn occurring if one or two short priced antepost horses lose.

We all love a 25/1 or 33/1 bet going off on the day the 2/1 fav, and long may we share our thoughts here, trying to dig out those type of horses.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom