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Supreme Novices 2018

One f in fulham said:
A few years back a friend of mine said take a look at the time Faugheen clocked when he won the xmas hurdle the day Altior won the novice race. There was only a split between the two on the clock. This season If the cap fits clocked 3m55.1 in the novice race where as Buveur D air clocked 3m57.50 in the xmas hurdle. Admittedly I think BD could of gone a bit quicker but you have to take note that ITCF would've run BD close and beaten The New One. Take this as you please but on the back of that day im all in on ITCF. I cant vision anything else in the supreme that could clock a similar time to the champion hurdle fav.
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I took this approach with Altior in the Supreme, and will do again with ITCF. You, CoD and Kevloaf have all made valid points about ITCF. Yes, i'd like him to have won another race at a higher level, but his form and times stack up, and Fry loves him. He's had the Supreme in mind all year.

Getabird might be amazing and win comfortably, but i'm not sure if he's a real 2 miler with genuine speed. And it's 7/4 versus 6s in price.
 
Need your help folks. I have been spouting for the past four months that Ireland will take all the novice hurdles this year, other than the 4year olds. I have somehow ended up betting the current second and third favs. The fav looks so obvious to me now, but wonder what u think the so called second Irish horse will be.?
 
ziggym said:
Need your help folks. I have been spouting for the past four months that Ireland will take all the novice hurdles this year, other than the 4year olds. I have somehow ended up betting the current second and third favs. The fav looks so obvious to me now, but wonder what u think the so called second Irish horse will be.?
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Mengli Khan?
 
TCH29 said:
I took this approach with Altior in the Supreme, and will do again with ITCF. You, CoD and Kevloaf have all made valid points about ITCF. Yes, i'd like him to have won another race at a higher level, but his form and times stack up, and Fry loves him. He's had the Supreme in mind all year.

Getabird might be amazing and win comfortably, but i'm not sure if he's a real 2 miler with genuine speed. And it's 7/4 versus 6s in price.
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I would be very wary of this approach regarding the race at Kempton. ITCF was 18L quicker than BD from the first to the 6th, it was a very slowly run race hence the close proximity of the 135 rated Mohaayed only beat 7L and under 4L behind the 163 rated TNO.

BD cuts about 7L off that between the last 2 flights more or less on the bridle.

While the form of ITCF has been franked, can we just reminded ourselves that Altior was 13L clear of the 137 rated Open Eagle, 20L clear of the 138 rated Maracudja and 21L clear of the 140 rated Simon Squirrel.
 
ziggym said:
Need your help folks. I have been spouting for the past four months that Ireland will take all the novice hurdles this year, other than the 4year olds. I have somehow ended up betting the current second and third favs. The fav looks so obvious to me now, but wonder what u think the so called second Irish horse will be.?
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Mengli Khan
Paloma Blue
 
Robbante said:
I can't see Kalashnikov winning it with the prep he's had, been to the well on heavy ground too many times, must have taken its toll on a novice. Also on collateral form you'd have to give as much chance to the likes of Summerville Boy and Slate House, both of whom will be going in fresher
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Slate House confirmed for this race by Colin Tizzard - 40/1 NRNB or 50/1 available..... purely looking at his win over Summerville Boy who is 16/1 over course and distance in the Supreme Trial at Cheltenham back in November.... that does make him INTERESTING at the price.

You can obviously go on to say Summerville Boy beating Kalashnikov who won the Betfair and is now 7/1 2nd fav boosts his claims a little ... although can't hang your hat on it.

You can easily discount his last run over 20f in heavy behind Santini... doesn't want Heavy or that far at this stage....

So there is the niggly one where he lost behind Claimintakinforgan - but I've just watched that back and he's just too keen... blew his chance IMO and still wasn't beaten THAT FAR....

The saying goes you can forgive ONE BAD RUN.... in this case, I am going to forgive TWO, and add him each way at the riskier 50/1
 
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Where did you read that Slate house was confirmed for this please kev
 
billymag said:
Where did you read that Slate house was confirmed for this please kev
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Somewhere in there my friend.... earlyish....

Not a lot of love for the selection by the looks of it :highly_amused:

C&D winner and beat subsequent G1 winner ... 50/1 too big IMO

 
Yes nice one kev im in also in, agree he looks overpriced and by presenting should love good ground.
 
Kevloaf said:
Slate House confirmed for this race by Colin Tizzard - 40/1 NRNB or 50/1 available..... purely looking at his win over Summerville Boy who is 16/1 over course and distance in the Supreme Trial at Cheltenham back in November.... that does make him INTERESTING at the price.

You can obviously go on to say Summerville Boy beating Kalashnikov who won the Betfair and is now 7/1 2nd fav boosts his claims a little ... although can't hang your hat on it.

You can easily discount his last run over 20f in heavy behind Santini... doesn't want Heavy or that far at this stage....

So there is the niggly one where he lost behind Claimintakinforgan - but I've just watched that back and he's just too keen... blew his chance IMO and still wasn't beaten THAT FAR....

The saying goes you can forgive ONE BAD RUN.... in this case, I am going to forgive TWO, and add him each way at the riskier 50/1
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Good shout and case made. Have to say I had forgotten about the horse recently. 50/1 definitely too big.
I'm happy enough with my position in this race and I have Slate House covered at 16/1 Any Race from earlier in the year anyway but if I was coming into this race fresh right now, i'd certainly be adding this
 
I do remember (sand could find) a part from myself where I was CONVINCED this horse had been purchased with a festival win in mind.

He was expensive and the one Joe mentioned pre season as of to follow.

Obviously that isn't solid enough to go on but the price doesn't respect those thoughts
 
Kevloaf said:
I do remember (sand could find) a part from myself where I was CONVINCED this horse had been purchased with a festival win in mind.

He was expensive and the one Joe mentioned pre season as of to follow.

Obviously that isn't solid enough to go on but the price doesn't respect those thoughts
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Every horse has been bought with a festival win in mind. He's the only horse joe tizzard bought himself and purchased of his own back from Tom Malone without permission from his dad. And at that time he owned him himself.
 
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Scooby91 said:
Every horse has been bought with a festival win in mind. He's the only horse joe tizzard bought himself and purchased of his own back from Tom Malone without permission from his dad. And at that time he owned him himself.
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What an incredibly pedantic point to make. You know what I meant. After his first win Colin tizzard specifically said the owners bought him with Cheltenham in mind this season.

That is a statement that you don't get with every horse.
 
Kevloaf said:
What an incredibly pedantic point to make. You know what I meant. After his first win Colin tizzard specifically said the owners bought him with Cheltenham in mind this season.

That is a statement that you don't get with every horse.
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Must admit I had to Google pedantic.

Might be just me but I genuinely think 95% of horses would be bought with Cheltenham in mind. Certainly the case with myself. And I can't pay upper tier on the likes of slate house. At that price you almost expect it rightly or wrongly.
 
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Scooby91 said:
Must admit I had to Google pedantic.

Might be just me but I genuinely think 95% of horses would be bought with Cheltenham in mind. Certainly the case with myself. And I can't pay upper tier on the likes of slate house. At that price you almost expect it rightly or wrongly.
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For the money, I'd agree.

Not 95% of the time connections would say it on debut. I remember it being quite bold which is why it stuck out.

It actually has no impact on the horses chances at all though because the horse doesn't know how much he was haha
 
I just heard that If The Cap Fits misses Cheltenham!
 
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