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Supreme Novices 2018

Kevloaf said:
Kalashnikov got loads of positive mentions in this weeks review podcasts .... doesn't look like anyone has gotten him on their minds for this at the current price.

The most interest "snippet" was that he won the Betfair off the highest mark since My Tent Or Yours.

I like to have horses covered BUT 6/1 NRNB is shorter than I can take advantage of....

I'm a little bit annoyed that I didn't take a NRNB price before his run in the Tolworth which would usually be my method .... has anyone got a good price about him?
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I've got 1/2 pt @ ~70 on Betfair.

For the Ballymore:highly_amused:
 
It was a really impressive performance from kalashnikov but I cant back horses in the Supreme or Neptune that have run in handicaps, until one goes and wins one, there have been loads of fancied runners who have tried and failed.

(Borrowed these stats from Narrowing the Field)
0 of the last 20 Supreme winners ran in a handicap last time out
47 tried to win the Supreme off the back of a hcp run and 0 succeeded, 6 placed

0 of the last 20 Neptune winners ran in a handicap last time out
39 tried to win the Neptune off the back of a hcp run and only 2 placed.

There have been a few gone close but (Get me out of here springs to mind) until one or even two manage it ill oppose them, if they are pretty short prices, Kalashnikov falls into this category for me, but the weight he carried and his rating do make me nervous.
 
I can't see Kalashnikov winning it with the prep he's had, been to the well on heavy ground too many times, must have taken its toll on a novice. Also on collateral form you'd have to give as much chance to the likes of Summerville Boy and Slate House, both of whom will be going in fresher
 
From a stats perspective Next Destination ticks so many boxes.

5 or 6 years old
Won 50% of all hurdle starts
Run in the same calendar year
Graded Form
Run at Cheltenham
Under 10/1 that run in last years bumper
Ex bumper horses placed in G1/G2 company
 
I have been struggling with this race for a while so I decided to look at some of the key stats and the market principals (excluding Samcro):

1. Won 50% of hurdle starts
2. Run the same calendar year
3. 5 or more runs
4. Graded form
5. Run at Cheltenham before
6. Deloitte/Tolworth/Royal Bond form
7. Ex bumper horses placed in G1 or G2 company
8. Won in fields of at least 14 runners
9. 5 or 6 years old

Scores out of 9:

Next Destination: 8 (14/1 NRNB)
Mengli Khan: 7 (14/1 NRNB)
Kalashnikov: 7 (6/1 NRNB)
Claimantakinforgan: 7 (16/1 NRNB)
Debuchet: 7 (50/1 NRNB)

I cannot back Kalashnikov. That was a tough race last week and I think it may have left a mark.

I have added the above in bold. I really like Next Destination for this, despite him looking Ballymore bound. Supreme is as much a test of stamina as it is speed and I think he looks a solid NRNB option
 
I've dived in with Kalashnikov, as I thought it was that impressive and I believe the trainer re: ground, but fully realise that covers will be needed. Going to stay away from Getabird, think he stole his last race at the start, so covers nearer the festival, Don't really see anything special this year.
 
I’ve been through the stats and trends plenty of times for his race. So much so, I’ve threw them out of the window

I’m going with the good old ‘Mullins and Henderson’ rule this race.

Getabird would have followed Champagne Fevers route here if he wasn’t injured prior to last years bumler
Again, I’m sitting in a good position AP wise with other but I think this is a poor renewal, and Mullins doesn’t need to have a Douvan or Vautour to win this. Getabird most likely winner
 
opatcho said:
I’ve been through the stats and trends plenty of times for his race. So much so, I’ve threw them out of the window

I’m going with the good old ‘Mullins and Henderson’ rule this race.

Getabird would have followed Champagne Fevers route here if he wasn’t injured prior to last years bumler
Again, I’m sitting in a good position AP wise with other but I think this is a poor renewal, and Mullins doesn’t need to have a Douvan or Vautour to win this. Getabird most likely winner
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Well, we agree its poor. Will no doubt have a double cover on the fav after a few cold ones in the centaur. Just cant get an angle on this race.
 
Completely agree with others that this is a hard race to get much of an angle on, that's why I am looking at the stats.
 
SeanRock said:
ITCF has trained with the Supreme in mind all season and has beaten what was put in front of him convincingly whilst showing a nice turn of foot. I would have liked to see him up in class possibly the once but Harry Fry and Noel Fehily have both come out and said he doesn’t take a lot of hard racing well yet and by there own admission he was slightly over when he finished 4th im the Aintree bumper last year. Your taking a chance that Fry will have him 100% on the day but he knows the horse best so I’m inclined to trust him. As FM said Frys recent poor form is a worry but there’s still four weeks for him to get firing.
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I would be careful with ITCF. He has not beaten much, not run this year, has no graded form, never run at Cheltenham, never won in a field of 14+. Easy to dismiss IMO.
 
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