Supreme Novices 2018

[Kevloaf]

I can't see Gordon Elliott running scared of Getabird with Samcro....

We KNOW from comments that Samcro is in a different league to Mengli Khan - Mengli Khan has been beaten 9L giving 6lbs on ground we know suited the winner and isn't the preferred ground for him. MK would finish closer to Getabird at Cheltenham in a Supreme so to suggest Elliott/Gigginstown would AVOID Getabird to me is not a realistic assessment.

If they thought Mengli Khan would get within 9L of Samcro, would the hype excist? I don't think it would.

 

[Scooby91]

I can't see Gordon Elliott running scared of Getabird with Samcro....

We KNOW from comments that Samcro is in a different league to Mengli Khan - Mengli Khan has been beaten 9L giving 6lbs on ground we know suited the winner and isn't the preferred ground for him. MK would finish closer to Getabird at Cheltenham in a Supreme so to suggest Elliott/Gigginstown would AVOID Getabird to me is not a realistic assessment.

If they thought Mengli Khan would get within 9L of Samcro, would the hype excist? I don't think it would.

What has Gordon Said that makes you think samcro would beat mengli khan by 9l or further? And woild be in a completely different league.

 

[billymag]

Like everyone im a big Samcro fan but Getabird looked awesome today, Id be pretty confident that these two will be kept apart at the festival.

I stand by this, I think Getabirds performance yesterday will mean Samcro goes 2m 6f next then Ballymore. They wont want to be taking on Getabird over 2m when there is an easier option. The only other option that I can see is if BD and Faugheen get injured I could see them fancying a go at the Big One, as the upsides would out way the risks. Im not saying Samcro wouldn't beat Getabird but the trainer has made it clear with his campaigning of Apples Jade, he is one for taking the easiest option and with Getabird (and ITCF) looking Supreme bound, Im happy to stick by the above, and for my bank balance I hope Im right. (currently praying to the horses god every night!!!!)

 

[Robbante]

I’ve invested in Getabird 7/2 nrnb. Hell of a pill to swallow and means I’ll only break even on this race now if him, Claimantakinforgan, IFCF, Sharjah or Mengli Khan win. I asked myself would I leave him unbacked on the day. That performance yesterday (the way he quickened after the last) marks him as the most likely winner to me and so I would have backed him. No way will he be 7/2 on the day so it made sense. Happy to take my medicine with this race, hopefully break even and move on. Have also backed Sharjah small stakes for the Ballymore. Don’t see how he’s still 20s for that?

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I could see him being 7/2 in the morning of the race Rob. Douvan and Vautour were both 3/1 ( possibly bigger) the morning of the race.

Did the Annamix injury make a mess of this race for you? You seem to have all those at the head of the market covered already so I'm surprised you are in the position you are.

 

[Robbante]

I could see him being 7/2 in the morning of the race Rob. Douvan and Vautour were both 3/1 ( possibly bigger) the morning of the race.

Did the Annamix injury make a mess of this race for you? You seem to have all those at the head of the market covered already so I'm surprised you are in the position you are.

Can see him being backed off the boards when target confirmed. If that’s the week before then think he could go off as short as 2/1. Even if he’s 3/1 on the day the nrnb means that if he doesn’t make it/goes for the Ballymore I’ll have the money back to play with/back him in the Ballymore. Annamix was a fair hit but I got a bit panicky about a month ago and covered too many. Have got next destination covered this race for example. Just double checked and it’s still a slight (very slight) profit for me if one of those top 5 go in. And come the day I forget about what I’ve bet over the months anyway and just see it as free money! In a far better position I think with most other races so just a little annoyed how this one has played out

 

[Robbante]

Can see him being backed off the boards when target confirmed. If that’s the week before then think he could go off as short as 2/1. Even if he’s 3/1 on the day the nrnb means that if he doesn’t make it/goes for the Ballymore I’ll have the money back to play with/back him in the Ballymore. Annamix was a fair hit but I got a bit panicky about a month ago and covered too many. Have got next destination covered this race for example. Just double checked and it’s still a slight (very slight) profit for me if one of those top 5 go in. And come the day I forget about what I’ve bet over the months anyway and just see it as free money! In a far better position I think with most other races so just a little annoyed how this one has played out

Also the plunge now on Getabird was covered by winnings on William Henry yesterday which makes it a little easier to bear

 

[BigChaang]

Getabird was very impressive ,certainly showed gears we not seen previously seen and must go for supreme on back of that. When Willie points one at this Moscow flyer race it normally his number 1 when you see past history. Vautour , Douvan and Min all went supreme and backed of the boards , this getabird seems to have as well.

Thought Mengli Khan ran well when you consider that not long after his last run , so hopefully now goes straight to festival relatively fresh.
Also trying to give Getabird 6lb was a mighty task , actually thought jockey gave him poor ride as in let Getabird out on front end from start.
With Kennedy back for festival and promise of better ground i haven't given up on him just yet .

Agree with what your saying about Mengli there, The Beast . still think he's a player in the Supreme.

 

[doctorwu]

I can't see Gordon Elliott running scared of Getabird with Samcro....

We KNOW from comments that Samcro is in a different league to Mengli Khan - Mengli Khan has been beaten 9L giving 6lbs on ground we know suited the winner and isn't the preferred ground for him. MK would finish closer to Getabird at Cheltenham in a Supreme so to suggest Elliott/Gigginstown would AVOID Getabird to me is not a realistic assessment.

If they thought Mengli Khan would get within 9L of Samcro, would the hype excist? I don't think it would.

Kev,
It might have been 9L but honestly it could have been 20L. The manner in which he dispatched MK put him in a different league. I think the Supreme will be even more of an advantage to Getabird style of running. No way can I see MK getting close to Getabird. All imho.

 

[Joleg]

Kev,
It might have been 9L but honestly it could have been 20L. The manner in which he dispatched MK put him in a different league. I think the Supreme will be even more of an advantage to Getabird style of running. No way can I see MK getting close to Getabird. All imho.

Couldn't have put it better myself, if Getabird runs here MK wont get close on yesterdays performance

 

[Kevloaf]

Elliott confirmed Menglio Khan goes straight for the Supreme now. Expecting MK to beat the 3rd and 4th further than he did.so doesn't think MK ran up to form but Getabird the better horse on the day.

I think he will be closer than 9L behind Getabird in the supreme still.

If it was as simple as running over the exact same C&D in the same conditions then there isn't a way you'd fancy MK to reverse the form.... but that isn't what will be happening

At Cheltenham, on good ground, to say he won't get closer is pretty bold to me. At the prices they are as well...

...and responding to why I think Elliott and connections think Samcro is a better horse than Mengli Khan is there for all to see!

Does anyone honestly believe they think Mengli Khan is as good as Samcro? Honestly? Not on form or what they've done, but the impression Samcro has made and comments about him... no-one believes they are in the same league surely?

0% Samcro comes here.... and it ISN'T to avoid Getabird!

 

[Scooby91]

I don't think they believe he's as good as samcro but I'm not certain at all that he'd give him a complete pasting on the bridle. Jets/minds eye are no mengli khan.
Samcros had an easy time up to now and it's up to him to show the extent of his ability at the festival.

 

[Kevloaf]

I don't think they believe he's as good as samcro but I'm not certain at all that he'd give him a complete pasting on the bridle. Jets/minds eye are no mengli khan.
Samcros had an easy time up to now and it's up to him to show the extent of his ability at the festival.

I'm not denying that. What I am saying is that connections seem to believe Samcro has the ability to do that, at the festival. Which to me means they are incredibly confident he would beat MK easily. I know he hasn't done it yet... but if that was the way it worked, no horse would ever be better than it has already run to.

 

[Scooby91]

I'm not denying that. What I am saying is that connections seem to believe Samcro has the ability to do that, at the festival. Which to me means they are incredibly confident he would beat MK easily. I know he hasn't done it yet... but if that was the way it worked, no horse would ever be better than it has already run to.

“If he turns out to be a reasonably good chaser in time, great, but he’s not the next coming of Jesus Christ.”

“He’d have to go to Cheltenham and actually win a race there, and the rest of it is just to delude ante-post punters betting at this time of the year"

“He is not as good as the hype would make out, he will never be as good as the hype will make out.


You can see what Michael oleary thinks of your judgement there kev :highly_amused:

I 100% agree with all but the 1st line.

 

[Kevloaf]

....pulling out O'Leary quotes isn't defence for anything and you know it haha.:highly_amused: I much prefer Elliott/Russell/Kenndy's opinions. "when you sit on him, you can tell he's special" etc etc

What will happen, is Samcro will hack up, and the doubters will say "yeah fair enough, I backed him anyway at big prices"....

Back to this race.....If I was as confident as others seem to be that Getabird will be 9L (or more) better than Mengli Khan that I'd be having a HUGE bet on him at 7/2.

 

[Scooby91]

....pulling out O'Leary quotes isn't defence for anything and you know it haha.:highly_amused: I much prefer Elliott/Russell/Kenndy's opinions. "when you sit on him, you can tell he's special" etc etc

What will happen, is Samcro will hack up, and the doubters will say "yeah fair enough, I backed him anyway at big prices"....

Back to this race.....If I was as confident as others seem to be that Getabird will be 9L (or more) better than Mengli Khan that I'd be having a HUGE bet on him at 7/2.

I don't think he'd particularly be 9 lengths clear if it was at punchestown. however it is left handed so it is possible.

Can't see much point if you've already backed him. I'm already huge at 16s but I wouldn't have been if I diddnt think it was a complete bet to nothing.

ITCF mengli khan getabird claimantakforgan

Footpad petit mouchoir brain power sceau royal NHH

If I can get any 2 of them to win I'm big in profit for the week after 2 races. Any of them in supreme plus Footpad and iv more tham doubled my money for the week after 2 races.
Long way to go though but that's the dream.

 

[Kevloaf]

16/1 NRNB and 10/1 NRNB we're a mistake from the bookies, one of the few advantages of ante-post punting.

Horses like Getabird are the ones that I find myself trying to pick holes in because I've already got the prices. I'll have at least 10 different people the day before and the morning of the Supreme asking me who I think will win or for a tip in the race. Say he goes off 3/1, I can't be bothered explaining that "I'm on at 16/1 so not sure I'd back him at 3/1 but he is the most likely winner"... :highly_amused:

 

[Scooby91]

16/1 NRNB and 10/1 NRNB we're a mistake from the bookies, one of the few advantages of ante-post punting.

Horses like Getabird are the ones that I find myself trying to pick holes in because I've already got the prices. I'll have at least 10 different people the day before and the morning of the Supreme asking me who I think will win or for a tip in the race. Say he goes off 3/1, I can't be bothered explaining that "I'm on at 16/1 so not sure I'd back him at 3/1 but he is the most likely winner"... :highly_amused:

I pick holes in anything regardless what my bets are. I'll completely disregard all bets iv placed and just look at the race if I was backing now, no bias what so ever towards my previous selections. I know it can look like I'm picking holes in horses ie samcro But alot of the time they're my biggest winners.
And at the prices now, I have to.


Exactly the same
In many races I'd give a different horse down to the price, hat iv backed myself as cover at close to that price. then when i collect my winnings from the original bet that person says why diddnt you give me that one......

 

[Kevloaf]

Mullins on ATR seemed to suggest Getabird will go for the Supreme now, and he hadn't been trained with that in mind... but now they have got the time...that looks the most obvious.

The horse does seem to have surprised them with his speed!

I'd be hopefuly Ruby gives him a Champagne Fever, Vautour, Faugheen(CC) ride - hard to imagine anything else. Keeps things simple.... will take a good one to go past him

 

[Morley Street]

Hi folks... been reading for a while and thought I’d add to the excellent debate. Getabird’s time today seemed to be 30+ secs slower than Vautour, Douvan & Min when they won the Moscow Flyer on similar ground. I doubt he’ll be quick enough on spring ground to beat the likes of ITCF and the Hendo beast?