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Supreme Novices 2018

Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Bloody hell Kev, didn't realise that adopting your first race strategy from last year was going to mean backing 20 horses....haha!!
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All joking aside I think I backed 6 non-runners (around 11 points in total) and in the process of covering at least the first 9 in the betting and if one of those win I'm calculating a minimum profit of 3 points ... Thank God for these first race free bets!
 
kinloch brae said:
If there was one horse I wanted the ground to dry out for it would have been Paloma Blue. On the usual first day ground I was pretty hopeful he could have won this but on the very likely soft I doubt he will better than fifth or sixth. I hope I am wrong. Consequently, I have used the Sky offer to back Minds Eye. He got a shocking ride last time and I would definitely put a line through that. I am not sure that his previous handicap form in big fields is a million miles away. Similarly, to Paloma Blue a strong pace would help and soft ground should be a positive rather than a problem. Hopefully, they will book a jock able to switch him off, perhaps someone in the O'Regan style?
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Bit of totally wasted analysis. Hard to believe they actually thought Trainwreck was a better option. Really difficult to now know what to do with the free bet. I don't like the top of the market and there is absolutely nothing at big prices. It is probably going to be a wasted bet on Paloma Blue although it is not hard to see him paddling up the hill. That said he won't be the only one.
 
Had a good look through the race now the entries are out and ended up thinking western Ryder is too big a price at 40-1. If you can forgive his Sandown run then he has winning form over Summerville boy (on what I believe will be similar ground to Tuesday) who is 10-1 and his last run behind behind vinndication he finished further in front of dell oro than first flow did and he's 10-1 as well. He's shown he likes Cheltenham and I've talked myself into a couple of points ew at 40-1.
 
taylorch1990 said:
Had a good look through the race now the entries are out and ended up thinking western Ryder is too big a price at 40-1. If you can forgive his Sandown run then he has winning form over Summerville boy (on what I believe will be similar ground to Tuesday) who is 10-1 and his last run behind behind vinndication he finished further in front of dell oro than first flow did and he's 10-1 as well. He's shown he likes Cheltenham and I've talked myself into a couple of points ew at 40-1.
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I agree - one of my Tuesday Betting Competion bets - definitely over priced
 
My biggest winner in this is Slate House :very_drunk:

Since If The Cap Fits came out I've just gone a bit "damage limitation".

Getabird still a decent winner and plan (as archie is keen on) ... is to take advtangfe of any offers and boosts for Getabird in the morning. Anything 5/2 or bigger I imagine I'll be taking.

I won't be able to "go green" in this race, due to 23 pts in non runners... but I'll be getting my money back regardless and should have a generous amount of "free bets" back...
 
Kevloaf said:
My biggest winner in this is Slate House :very_drunk:

Since If The Cap Fits came out I've just gone a bit "damage limitation".

Getabird still a decent winner and plan (as archie is keen on) ... is to take advtangfe of any offers and boosts for Getabird in the morning. Anything 5/2 or bigger I imagine I'll be taking.

I won't be able to "go green" in this race, due to 23 pts in non runners... but I'll be getting my money back regardless and should have a generous amount of "free bets" back...
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Me too re slate house, followed by Debuchet then Western Ryder
 
How certain are we that getabird will drift and to what price? 2/1, 9/4?
 
SH1591 said:
How certain are we that getabird will drift and to what price? 2/1, 9/4?
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I'd be certain he'd get to that price at least (9/4)..... HOWEVER it does depend on what kind of stakes you're looking at and what bookies you bet with, as some will just be very small.

The exchanges are pushing 2/1 now though so looks likely...
 
I think MENGLI KHAN will go very close, 1st time tongue tie as well
 
PitLad said:
I think MENGLI KHAN will go very close, 1st time tongue tie as well
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Soft ground a bit of a turn off?

He was my selection each way on better ground...
 
PitLad said:
I think MENGLI KHAN will go very close, 1st time tongue tie as well
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I think he’s a great price, 9L to find on getabird but was conceding weight, couple mistakes at fences, was behind at the start also
 
The wetter the ground has got the more confident i've got on Getabird
 
ryanh97 said:
The wetter the ground has got the more confident i've got on Getabird
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They was talking about him for the Ballymore, so I agree as I think a lot of the other horses are just two miles & the ground is playing into Getabirds hand.. One in the hand is better than two in the bush :)
 
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