Supreme Novices 2018

[opatcho]

headache of a race lol

 

[Kevloaf]

Last time I'll mention it but id strongly advise
Next destination

ew nrnb at 14/1.

Be prepared for all situations. That is massively overpriced should they switch up. IMO take samcro out and he'd have won that race easily at the weekend with his slick jumping and turn of foot. More likely to drop back than go to the AB for me.

And much more literally DDG ....

I'm on both each way of course NRNB

 

[Scooby91]

headache of a race lol

Should be easy.

Getabird
If the cap fits.
Next destination / duc des genievres.

In no particular order. Can't see anything apart from them

 

[Sirbetalot]

Should be easy.

Getabird
If the cap fits.
Next destination / duc des genievres.

In no particular order. Can't see anything apart from them

Getabird





7L then

If the cap fits.
Next destination / duc des genièvres.
In no particular order

 

[Scooby91]

Getabird





7L then

If the cap fits.
Next destination / duc des genièvres.
In no particular order

If all in that list above ran, no way getabird would win by 7. Horses like altior don't come around too often.

 

[kinloch brae]

Last time I'll mention it but id strongly advise
Next destination

ew nrnb at 14/1.

Be prepared for all situations. That is massively overpriced should they switch up. IMO take samcro out and he'd have won that race easily at the weekend with his slick jumping and turn of foot. More likely to drop back than go to the AB for me.

What indication is there that this horse would be effective at two miles? His form would suggest he wants a trip and soft ground. I can't see any chance he will go here and for me he is vulnerable wherever he goes.

 

[Scooby91]

What indication is there that this horse would be effective at two miles? His form would suggest he wants a trip and soft ground. I can't see any chance he will go here and for me he is vulnerable wherever he goes.

So paloma blue has a chance in the supreme but next destination dosent?

I don't give the former much of a chance but that makes very little sense. . He dosent want soft ground. His former trainer and current trainer have always said he wants decent ground.

Theres 2 ways next destination can end up fav for this. And both end up with getabird not running

 

[kinloch brae]

So paloma blue has a chance in the supreme but next destination dosent?

I don't give the former much of a chance but that makes very little sense. . He dosent want soft ground. His former trainer and current trainer have always said he wants decent ground.

Theres 2 ways next destination can end up fav for this. And both end up with getabird not running

I don't really want to be repeating what a pundit has said but the second behind Samcro picked up the pieces and I think there is every chance that form could be reversed in the Supreme. I also think that form is well above anything that If The Cap Fits has done. I think on achievement If The Cap Fits is a shocking price.

There's nothing in the book to suggest that Next Destination wants either better ground or the minimum trip. He was outpaced on better ground. At least Paloma Blue has some form at the trip and appears progressive. I wouldn't be confident that Getabird is the second coming but I would love to see him replaced by Next Destination.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I don't really want to be repeating what a pundit has said but the second behind Samcro picked up the pieces and I think there is every chance that form could be reversed in the Supreme. I also think that form is well above anything that If The Cap Fits has done. I think on achievement If The Cap Fits is a shocking price.

There's nothing in the book to suggest that Next Destination wants either better ground or the minimum trip. He was outpaced on better ground. At least Paloma Blue has some form at the trip and appears progressive. I wouldn't be confident that Getabird is the second coming but I would love to see him replaced by Next Destination.

Really?

100% win record over hurdles, I'm unsure what else he could have done.

If trained by Mullins or even Henderson he would be clear favourite right now, so the price is pretty generous, and I do think he'll be a player, whether or not he wins is another thing, personally I think he'll find at least one too good, but he's a place certainty for me.

You also have to take into account the falters of the other contenders in the market, Mengli Khan has been beat twice in a row now, Claimintakinforgan got turned over at odds on at the weekend, Laurina should be in the Mares' Novice, but I'd back her big time IF she turned up here, Paloma Blue, as progressive as you may think he is he has still only won 1 maiden on a racecourse, Next Destination is about the only one who could potentially turn up here and be good enough to beat the 2 at the head of the betting IMO, but unlike Scooby I think he will go over further myself.

 

[One f in fulham]

Totally agree CoD. The best of the british runners with form being franked recently. Will be placed in a field that is looking weaker by the day.

Love it the way a horse gets put up by pundit and all of a sudden its the next best thing! How many thought Sharjah was a good thing when pricewise put him up?

 

[Scooby91]

I don't really want to be repeating what a pundit has said but the second behind Samcro picked up the pieces and I think there is every chance that form could be reversed in the Supreme. I also think that form is well above anything that If The Cap Fits has done. I think on achievement If The Cap Fits is a shocking price.

There's nothing in the book to suggest that Next Destination wants either better ground or the minimum trip. He was outpaced on better ground. At least Paloma Blue has some form at the trip and appears progressive. I wouldn't be confident that Getabird is the second coming but I would love to see him replaced by Next Destination.

You do realise next destination and paloma blue have met this season over 2 miles?

Next destination travelled well flatenned the last and flew away when he was asked for an effort with a change of gear. And the quotes before the race were he has to start somewhere and he'd come on for the run. Since then hes ran at the top grade against the best opposition around. Samcro diddnt make his last start. He can't help that.

 

[Scooby91]

Really?

100% win record over hurdles, I'm unsure what else he could have done.

If trained by Mullins or even Henderson he would be clear favourite right now, so the price is pretty generous, and I do think he'll be a player, whether or not he wins is another thing, personally I think he'll find at least one too good, but he's a place certainty for me.

You also have to take into account the falters of the other contenders in the market, Mengli Khan has been beat twice in a row now, Claimintakinforgan got turned over at odds on at the weekend, Laurina should be in the Mares' Novice, but I'd back her big time IF she turned up here, Paloma Blue, as progressive as you may think he is he has still only won 1 maiden on a racecourse, Next Destination is about the only one who could potentially turn up here and be good enough to beat the 2 at the head of the betting IMO, but unlike Scooby I think he will go over further myself.

I think bally more ND, but I'm prepared for all angles. Its nrnb.

 

[kinloch brae]

Really?

100% win record over hurdles, I'm unsure what else he could have done.

If trained by Mullins or even Henderson he would be clear favourite right now, so the price is pretty generous, and I do think he'll be a player, whether or not he wins is another thing, personally I think he'll find at least one too good, but he's a place certainty for me.

You also have to take into account the falters of the other contenders in the market, Mengli Khan has been beat twice in a row now, Claimintakinforgan got turned over at odds on at the weekend, Laurina should be in the Mares' Novice, but I'd back her big time IF she turned up here, Paloma Blue, as progressive as you may think he is he has still only won 1 maiden on a racecourse, Next Destination is about the only one who could potentially turn up here and be good enough to beat the 2 at the head of the betting IMO, but unlike Scooby I think he will go over further myself.

If The Cap Fits has just been nursed along, beating up inferior opposition on flat tracks. The only time he has stepped up in class he was well beaten. The Supreme will be an absolute sea change. At the moment his form isn't good enough and there is no telling how he will adapt. He is no value.

 

[kinloch brae]

You do realise next destination and paloma blue have met this season over 2 miles?

Next destination travelled well flatenned the last and flew away when he was asked for an effort with a change of gear. And the quotes before the race were he has to start somewhere and he'd come on for the run. Since then hes ran at the top grade against the best opposition around. Samcro diddnt make his last start. He can't help that.

When did that happen?

The only meeting I have is over two miles three furlongs on a stiff track. Although he was well beaten I think the most telling point going forward is that Paloma Blue went off 7/4 favourite. There is no doubt Paloma Blue was disappointing early in the season but his last run represents significant improvement and there is a fair chance of more to come.

 

[Scooby91]

When did that happen?

The only meeting I have is over two miles three furlongs on a stiff track. Although he was well beaten I think the most telling point going forward is that Paloma Blue went off 7/4 favourite. There is no doubt Paloma Blue was disappointing early in the season but his last run represents significant improvement and there is a fair chance of more to come.

Apologies was 2m3. They went off priced on bumper form and willie stating he'd come on plenty for the run and it was very much a starting point.
I dont see it being a different result over 2 on that day. . However I can't really say that as a fact.
And ND looks alot sharper to me, for the run .


11Nov17 Naa*19f Soft to Heavy 5y+ MdnHdl(13K)

11-12[7/4F]bf3rd of 12,*13.75L behind Next Destination

D N Russell

Paloma blue
tracked leaders in 3rd, mistakes, mistake 4 out and dropped to 4th, ridden in 5th 2 out, 4th at last, kept on same pace in 3rd inside final furlong.









Next Destination (IRE)*5, b g 11-12*(Malcolm C Denmark)*
(5:06.7*7.72 secs slower*on today's going*)*
Dubai Destination (USA)*- Liss Alainn (IRE)(Flemensfirth (USA))*
Breeder - Niall Flynn

(Morning price: 7/4*2/1*5/2*3/1*7/2)*
(Ring price: 9/2*4/1)*SP 4/1

W P Mullins

P Townend


tracked leaders in 5th, closer 4th on outer 2 out, pushed along to lead approaching last, ridden and stayed on strongly run-in, easily, impressiv

 

[Birds Nest]

ND out of Dubai Destination and Dam side littered with staying Hurdlers screams 2.5m+ to me

Just a footnote guys...Lalor joint fav for the Betfair on Sat...Still 40-1 NRNB with the marvelous B365 for the Supreme.
Any takers?

 

[charlie]

ND out of Dubai Destination and Dam side littered with staying Hurdlers screams 2.5m+ to me

Just a footnote guys...Lalor joint fav for the Betfair on Sat...Still 40-1 NRNB with the marvelous B365 for the Supreme.
Any takers?

Yes. Backed EW @ 50's wtih Hills (still available) & 90's on Betfair. Won the Grade 2 at Aintree beating plenty of horses ahead in the supreme market (Claimantakinforgan, If The Cap Fits). Ran well behind Western Ryder to finish 2nd over C&D. I haven't checked this but I think Betfair Hurdle winners have a terrible record in the Supreme.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

ND out of Dubai Destination and Dam side littered with staying Hurdlers screams 2.5m+ to me

Just a footnote guys...Lalor joint fav for the Betfair on Sat...Still 40-1 NRNB with the marvelous B365 for the Supreme.
Any takers?

I can pick holes in the form of pretty much every race Lalor has run in (through other form) and therefore, even if he was treble them odds I wouldn't be interested.

I think the best horse from this side of the Irish Sea is ITCF. Claimintakinforgan was up there, before a deflated effort over the weekend, and he had the beating of a lot of challengers from here, through form lines, so, for me, I can't actually take our challengers too seriously as I think overall it's a pretty poor standard this year. I wouldn't be one bit surprised if the Irish have the 1-2-3 in this race.

 

[Scooby91]

ND out of Dubai Destination and Dam side littered with staying Hurdlers screams 2.5m+ to me

Just a footnote guys...Lalor joint fav for the Betfair on Sat...Still 40-1 NRNB with the marvelous B365 for the Supreme.
Any takers?

I take your point but I don't follow breeding strictly at all. I see each horse as an individual case.

Yorkhill being a presenting you'd think he wants 3 miles. But i was strictly against. Not because his breeding just the way he races and his exuberant style uses energy.
Up for review on breeding you'd think he wants top of the ground. But he actually wants deep heavy ground to be seen at his very best. As it best suits his action and he glides across it .

 

[Innoko]

The four-times champion trainer confirmed that Claimantakinforgan will appear in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

"I think the track and the ground all went against him (Claimantakinforgan). He is very slick over his hurdles, he just got lost around Musselburgh a bit.

"I 'm pretty sure he will still go for the Supreme."