• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Supreme Novices 2018

One negative is her age, 7+ year old horses do not have a strong record in this race.

3 horses aged 7+ ran in the race this year, finishing 6th, 10th & 11th.
2016 running - 2 ran, finishing 6th and last (12th).
2015 running - 1 ran, finishing 10th of 12.
2014 running - 2 ran, finishing 4th & last (18th).
2013 running - 1 ran, finishing last (10th) of those that finished the race.
2012 running - 1 ran, finishing 5th.
2011 running - 0 ran.
2010 running - 4 ran, finishing 3rd (4/5 favourite Dunguib), 6th, 15th & 16th.

Granted, not a lot of 7+ year old horses take this race on, probably for good reason, maybe another reason why Fayonagh won't turn up in this IMO, but regardless of quantities that do they still have a poor record, even for placing, let alone winning it!
 
I'd put a lot of money on the Mares Novices hurdle being the weaker of the two races come March. Hopefully GE will shed some light on her future targets in the post race interviews.
 
I thought red jack never looked like getting beat off debuchet and looked every but as impressive, I do like fayonagh as well mind.
 
I'm not sure that the Festival bumper is a particularly good source of novice hurdle winners the next year but there is surely more improvement in Debuchet and Red Jack, being 2 years younger than Fayonagh.

To put all this into perspective, there are at least 40 youngish horses new to Closutton for this season. They have come from the flat, France and PtP amongst other sources but the majority were expensive and are qualified for novice hurdles. One or two that were acquired last season are already in the Cheltenham markets but the majority have not yet done any serious work and no-one knows how good they are both comparatively and in absolute terms.

Other big yards have similarly stocked up and picking the Cheltenham winners at this stage makes locating a needle in a haystack look like child's play.
 
Completely agree Archie.

The only other side to that, is usually the Mullins 'good thing' or 'Supreme/Neptune target' whether it be owned by Ricci or not, gets found out early doors, Faugheen, Vautour, Douvan, Min & Melon, all were head of the betting in their respective races a long way from the festival and despite the last 2 not actually winning their novice hurdle races at the festival they returned plenty of punters nice e/way money on them who braved the early, but bigger prices.

The only one I recall not heading the right way is of course Senewalk, who has been, on the whole, disappointing so far.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I'd put a lot of money on the Mares Novices hurdle being the weaker of the two races come March. Hopefully GE will shed some light on her future targets in the post race interviews.
Click to expand...

Historically it always has been the weaker of the two races and should be again this year, but I just think those two french mares with Mullins and Henderson are both potentially special. If that turns out to be the case then they might chance their arm with Fayonagh in the supreme. If the mares novice is looking like a penalty kick then for sure i expect them to go there with her
 
archie said:
I'm not sure that the Festival bumper is a particularly good source of novice hurdle winners the next year but there is surely more improvement in Debuchet and Red Jack, being 2 years younger than Fayonagh.

To put all this into perspective, there are at least 40 youngish horses new to Closutton for this season. They have come from the flat, France and PtP amongst other sources but the majority were expensive and are qualified for novice hurdles. One or two that were acquired last season are already in the Cheltenham markets but the majority have not yet done any serious work and no-one knows how good they are both comparatively and in absolute terms.

Other big yards have similarly stocked up and picking the Cheltenham winners at this stage makes locating a needle in a haystack look like child's play.
Click to expand...

Valid points, there could potentially be a superstar lurking amongst that lot. Happy to take a chance on Fayonagh at the prices currently, but I also have a point on Epicuris, Dortmund Park and Delirant so far for the supreme so hopefully the superstar lurking turns out to be one of those!
 
Robante said:
Valid points, there could potentially be a superstar lurking amongst that lot. Happy to take a chance on Fayonagh at the prices currently, but I also have a point on Epicuris, Dortmund Park and Delirant so far for the supreme so hopefully the superstar lurking turns out to be one of those!
Click to expand...

Prior to today (and in fairness the last month) I did think Fayonagh was well worth taking a chance on in this race, and did include in a couple of speculative multiples during the summer.

I've backed Annamix, (purely in hope that the 'talking horse' from the Ricci yard is the right one at this stage) and I did back Getabird (which is probably my worst bet of the year so far)... that was put on a while back too!

The other is Red Jack, which jono made a very good case for a few pages back... I am trying to be a little more reserved in this market, as last year I had 19 pts in non runners, 27.5 in NRNB (that obviously came back) and 30 pts staked! (backed every horse in the end)... giving me a grand total of -14 pts despite having the 50/1 winner :highly_amused:
 
Kevloaf said:
Prior to today (and in fairness the last month) I did think Fayonagh was well worth taking a chance on in this race, and did include in a couple of speculative multiples during the summer.

I've backed Annamix, (purely in hope that the 'talking horse' from the Ricci yard is the right one at this stage) and I did back Getabird (which is probably my worst bet of the year so far)... that was put on a while back too!

The other is Red Jack, which jono made a very good case for a few pages back... I am trying to be a little more reserved in this market, as last year I had 19 pts in non runners, 27.5 in NRNB (that obviously came back) and 30 pts staked! (backed every horse in the end)... giving me a grand total of -14 pts despite having the 50/1 winner :highly_amused:
Click to expand...

76.5 pts on the first race Kev - that is some going :highly_amused:
 
I got stung by the Senewalk hype last year and said wouldn't be swayed again but what has happened? Had a few bets with Annamix in them. But also think Red Jack could be in for a big season and could be aimed here. Think I read somewhere too that Henderson seems very sweet on the chances of Pym.
 
I believe Hendo has suggested Pym might go up in trip ....

The Melon hype wasn't too bad, in contrast to Senewalk :devilish:
 
Amy thoughts on the French contingent for this race ie. The French champion bumper winner Dortmund park (Gordon ellioy) currently 50s. And the jp aqps horses delirant (pipe) and dostal phil?? (Philip hobbs)
 
Scooby91 said:
Amy thoughts on the French contingent for this race ie. The French champion bumper winner Dortmund park (Gordon ellioy) currently 50s. And the jp aqps horses delirant (pipe) and dostal phil?? (Philip hobbs)
Click to expand...

Good mention for Dortmund Park, at 50/1 I am tempted to have 0.5 pts e/w on. Won on different types of ground so might be one to shorten over the winter if he wins some races! I have no idea how strong that form is for the French Champion Bumper but did find this quote:

Expensive Gigginstown recruit from Gloucestershire 'as good as Un De Sceaux, if not better' by Richard Hobson (Bloodstock agent who bought Hurricane Fly once upon a time)

Mullins was the under-bidder too for anyone interested...
 
The form is solid, 7 lengths on the bridle. as is delirants grade 1 form. Dostal phil has potential after his 1 nice win before his hefty price tag. Red jack and debuchet chances speak for them selves. Lalor travelled beautifully in the Aintree bumper. Annamix was bought from the right connection for the right trainer/ owner. And early doors who was unlucky imo in the goffs bumper when finishing 3rd to another with a good shout, vision des flos.
Looks on paper to be a very good renewal.

But one thing in common for all of these is they have to jump.
 
Last edited:
archie said:
Some names for your notebook:
http://www.irishracing.com/news?headline=Supreme-Have-Strong-Team-With-Mullins&prid=186161
Click to expand...


Im aware of harrie French form behind BALLERINE DAUTEUIL who won a handicap and was campaigned in grade 2 races after.
Do you know anything about harrie that your aloud to share. Ie likely to yo down 2 mile route. I noticed a couple of weeks ago Joe chambers (ricci race manager) commenting on one of the supreme racing club photos of harrie, he is obviously aware of him. As he maybe all the supreme runners.
 
Just that they like him, Scooby. Apparently Ruby gave him a good mention on RUK.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom