• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Supreme Novices 2018

Kevloaf said:
Another once raced Supreme fav for us to look forward to :highly_amused:

Who can rememebr the stats about UK flat runners in the Supreme? From memory (and from expereince backing First Mohican ante post - didn't run anyway) it is pretty poor? Not a reason to be put off IMO but maybe someone has some more detailed info.
Click to expand...

I'm not aware of the UK side of it but i'm pretty sure ex flat runners as a whole haven't been helped since the new watering system began meaning there's now 0% chance we'll have good fast ground in the opening race, something which would have helped ex flat horses who would have more speed.
 
cufctony said:
A mate of mine was in the owners and trainers bar at the weekend and asked Mullins jokingly his supreme horse for next year to which he replied 'sayar'
Click to expand...

Kevin Blake gave a nice little mention of this horse on TFF podcast this week actually. Though not top class by any means, the O'Brien yard view Big Ben as a decent yardstick and Sayar smashed him with Townend barely asking the horse.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Fayonagh has to be the ante post lay of the festival for this race IMO. Unsure why connections would want to go down the Supreme route when they have a more solid, potential winner in waiting for the Mares' Novice Hurdle.

All trends tell you she has little chance in this race, being a mare (although relatively inconclusive as only 5 have run in the last 10 years, but only 1 placed) and a 7 year old (by the time the race comes around). It doesn't seem many high profile trainers send their best Mares to this race, so I can't see them lining her up here, and even if she does line up here she has a man mountain to climb to place, let alone win it!
Click to expand...

That's quite a bold call CoD! Although only looking very very briefly at this but I wouldn't use the trends as much of a basis to write her off. I have no facts to back this up but i'd be surprised if many mares (if any) took in both the Cheltenham and Punchestown Champion Bumper's against the males the previous season so on what we know so far connections are more than happy to take on opposition outside her own sex.

This is not fully accurate but looking back briefly 14 or so runners seem like a decent minimum average of Supreme runners. Gaulstats says 21 mares have run in the last 25 years. That is roughly 6% of the runners (21 of 350) BUT 3 have won in that time so out of the 25 races that gives them a 12% strikerate. 2 Mares also came second in that time. Pretty good for the amount of runners? I think if a mare is good enough then they have a very good chance with the weight allowance.

I did say elsewhere though that I think it's more likely they go for the Mares Novice because not only has Elliott got an extremely strong selection of novice hurdlers in Samcro, Blow by Blow, Dortmund Park, Defi Bleu just to mention a few that he'll need to separate at the festival but also because he may be looking to get a few races 'in the bank' which would see Fayonagh have her easiest chance in the Mares race.

She is also set to start off in a Mares race based on Elliott's recent comments. I agree in that I think the Mares race is certainly the most likely. I wouldn't be surprised if they tried her out against the males at some stage just to test the waters. Not sure i'd call her the antepost lay of the festival for the race though myself. I know injuries (Getabird) and horses bypassing races (Samcro) meant there were some high class horses she didn't take on but of how she raced, she was a level above the bumper horses last year. If they do target the race she'll have a fine chance imo.
 
jono said:
Kevin Blake gave a nice little mention of this horse on TFF podcast this week actually. Though not top class by any means, the O'Brien yard view Big Ben as a decent yardstick and Sayar smashed him with Townend barely asking the horse.
Click to expand...

Yeah, a number of theories about flat breds struggling in the Supreme.
Not sure I go along with the watering argument, I've been fortunate enough to walk the course several times and although the good to soft description is almost a certainty, on at least three occasions it was no slower than 'good'.
Indeed Menorah's Supreme a few years back, when James Fanshawe's 90 rated (flat) Spring Jim could get no closer than 12.5l to the winner and was closest of the five flats to compete that renewal, I was convinced there were plenty of good to firm places.
2/3 years ago they changed the description after a couple of races too.

I just think the introduction of overseas breeding has seen NH bred horses getting better...
 
I thought Fayonagh won a very strong renewal of the bumper last season franked by her win at Punchestown and by the performances of those behind her at Cheltenham, there's plenty more to come from this one but predicting the race she goes for isn't straightforward and where C or D's comments must be respected.
Mares get a 7lb allowance in the Supreme so there is an incentive but the Mares race now has G1 status and that could be enough to convince connections....
 
Istabraq said:
Yeah, a number of theories about flat breds struggling in the Supreme.
Not sure I go along with the watering argument, I've been fortunate enough to walk the course several times and although the good to soft description is almost a certainty, on at least three occasions it was no slower than 'good'.
Indeed Menorah's Supreme a few years back, when James Fanshawe's 90 rated (flat) Spring Jim could get no closer than 12.5l to the winner and was closest of the five flats to compete that renewal, I was convinced there were plenty of good to firm places.
2/3 years ago they changed the description after a couple of races too.

I just think the introduction of overseas breeding has seen NH bred horses getting better...
Click to expand...

I'd take your judgement on it with much more substance than mine Ista!
Out of interest i presume the public cannot just walk the course - you need to have 'connections'?
 
Only connections can walk the course Jono, though if you wanted to do it a begging letter can work.
It was only a few years ago the course was open for anyone between 7am and 8am, I think it was a combination of general increased security concerns and increased popularity of the festival.
Also, The Morning Line started doing interviews and features on the course and I expect that became difficult with hundreds of punters in shot....
 
From the Cheltenham website:
'In the interests of providing the best possible ground for the horses, the only people allowed to walk around the course on racedays or in the build-up to race meetings are the “connections” of runners.'
 
It may be nothing, but we seem to attach PP to the Mullins stable one way or another and they now go 10/1 about Annamix, and are worst price, he is now shorter than Melon was at this point last season!

Bet365 still hold their 16/1 though, but for how long!
 
Senewalk was probably the same price at this stage last season and we all know how that worked out.

I think PP play on their connection with the Mullins stable to a degree.
 
Good point FM, far too short though currently, BUT, if Annamix comes out and wins first time of asking we probably won't see anything like that price again, Melon went off at 3/1, Senewalk, well, he went for a walk, and seemingly is still doing so, having struggled in races so far.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Senewalk was probably the same price at this stage last season and we all know how that worked out.

I think PP play on their connection with the Mullins stable to a degree.
Click to expand...

Certainly this far out they do. Doesn't take a lot of money to get a horse clipped anyway nowadays does it.
 
Fact they look like they keeping Senewalk to hurdles suggests he still showing something at home.

County Hurdle if the talk around Annamix and Epicuris anything to go by.
 
Was Senewalk the first horse in 3/4 years that didn't end up being the "right horse"?

Ricci hasn't been asked what his Supreme horse is yet, but we can't be far away from that sound bite can we?

He didn't have one last year because it was Melon... who he couldn't purchase.

This year he's talking up a chaser, which might mean we need to look elsewhere in the stable :very_drunk:
 
I know, as Kev said above, it doesn't take an awful amount of money to shorten a horse these days, especially a RR runner, but the Annamix price has continued to fall, Bet365 were 16/1 pre-weekend, now 10/1 and more money on the exchanges for the horse too! Couple of other firms also shortened over the weekend, Skybet went as short as 8/1 before putting it back out to 10's, if this thing wins first time out it will drop in price by 50% regardless of how it wins IMO.

You can still get 14/1, which by the way I feel is an appalling price with so much time to go until the festival and also we haven't seen the horse run a race yet, but at this current moment in time, if the price is going to continue to contract like it has done these past 2 weeks then it probably is worth taking on a small scale.
 
If it was any other stable , you would take price changes with a pinch of salt .

Shouting "mug punters" at your computer , but betting antepost has changed so much in recent years.

This is the Mullins factor for you ,not since the days of the great Vincent O;Brien have we seen such a monopoly and more recently Aiden OBrien.

Bookies not daft , scouts must be sending more messages back to offices than Custer did , what id give to be watching those early season gallops , cos thats where the info coming from.

More moles than Adrian I reckon , low income stable staff making serious money releasing info.
 
I'm so happy I got the Adrian mole reference ... my Dad used to read those :highly_amused:

I think how people view a price very much depends on how they like to bet. When I look at a price I immediately think about whether I cam beat the SP... I think that's a minority thought as most probably just look at whether it's value in the hear -and-now?

But I agree, the stalbe does need to be a factor more now than ever before, whether we like it or not
 
I've convinced myself to take the plunge on Fayonagh for the Supreme. You've got to think that a few horses from last year's bumper are going to make up into leading contenders for this race (the likes of Debuchet and Western Ryder), and Fayonagh has already put them in their place. Coupled with that, the market for the mares novice impresses me more than the supreme at this stage. Salsaretta and Dame De Compagnie (amongst the favourites for the mares novice) to me have better form over in France than Annamix (current favourite for this race). Of course, I imagine final target will be dependent on how the opposition looks over the course of the season, and there's a chance that a Red Jack or a Pym will come out and look so impressive that the mares novice appears a far more winnable race. Red Jack's beating of Debuchet wasn't as impressive as Fayonagh's though, and those French mares I mentioned for the mares novice could turn out to be very smart (in a race that Mullins has a top record in). If I've read it right and the season develops as I think in both markets then 16/1 is a steal
 
Obviously a lot will be dependent on how they take a hurdle, so here's hoping for a taking performance at Fairyhouse tomorrow
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom