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Supreme Novices 2018

Joleg said:
Im happy with my punt on Claimantakinforgan after watching that. Wasnt impressed with either MK or RS, Sharjah appeared to be travelling well and probably would have won, I'd be very surprised if all 3 of those make the Supreme
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Claimantakinforgan has the best form in the book. Novice hurdlers ante post is a dangerous game ! I think someone on her stated it will be 7/2 Real Steal or Mengzi Khan after thi race and although you can't write hem off I won't be having anything on those two unless next race they perform much better
 
Of all the ones to have run in the novice hurdles over the last two days, I thought If The Cap Fits probably still had the most potential. He looked a bit green and I suspect he'll improve. Just struck me as the rawest of them all. Wouldn't get carried away with him for the Supreme but those of you on early look like you've got him nicely covered and i think yesterday will have made a man of him after a couple of egg and spooners.
 
The Lick said:
Claimantakinforgan has the best form in the book. Novice hurdlers ante post is a dangerous game ! I think someone on her stated it will be 7/2 Real Steal or Mengzi Khan after thi race and although you can't write hem off I won't be having anything on those two unless next race they perform much better
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I think you could argue Mengli Khan has better form than Claimintakenforgan.... obviously not on the crashing out today, but prior to that...?
 
Initial impression going to the last sharjah was going to bolt up and pull away like he did in lesser company.

On reflection his fall was that of a tired horse he probably would have won, but I'm not 100% sure and he diddnt actually look to have as much in the tank as I first thought. Hoping all 3 come back safe and sound. Assuming rightly or wrongly real steel could well step up in trip now. Although I'd like to see all 3 race again and get to finish.
 
Kevloaf said:
I think you could argue Mengli Khan has better form than Claimintakenforgan.... obviously not on the crashing out today, but prior to that...?
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It's very hard to assess that, either way would be a guess.
 
I still have no idea what to make of that race! Patrick Mullins reaction was telling where he threw the whip down on the floor having fallen. He clearly felt he would have won. Having been on the side of Real Steel (having been on him at 20/1 for the Supreme) I felt he was beaten if both had stayed up but considering how he went through the race it's testament to the horse he was in that position at the last. Daly Tiger runs tomorrow in the bumper at Leopardstown. Though it's back in a bumper a strong showing would help give a boost to Real Steel's debut.

If The Cap Fits probably holds the strongest claims on everything i've seen this year so far, at least visually and i've taken the generous Any Race odds highlighted elsewhere at 14/1. Though i'm covered if he goes elsewhere I'd be shocked if connections don't go for this race now.

I'm more than happy to have Claimantakinforgan at 25/1 in the book still. With Pym still to appear and Diese Des Bieffes being put in his place by ITCF he looks the clear number 1 for Henderson and with his record in the race that counts for a lot for me.

What I'd wish for the days of a clear Mullins hotpot again who would lineup at the festival with a bunch of 1's next to his name...it made the Supreme so much easier :highly_amused::very_drunk:
 
I am 100% chasing this race now, which I find difficult to take as it's the last thing I normally do, but Annamix was a big blow and elseemingly everything I then back afterwards fails to impress. Still have Mengli Khan covered but he's my main hope now. The Mullins lot don't look much IMO.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I am 100% chasing this race now, which I find difficult to take as it's the last thing I normally do, but Annamix was a big blow and elseemingly everything I then back afterwards fails to impress. Still have Mengli Khan covered but he's my main hope now. The Mullins lot don't look much IMO.
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29 pts staked in this for me so I probably am as well:highly_amused:

Although any of the shortest 4 on oddschecker (Mengli Khan, Sharjah, If The Cap Fits, Claimantakinforgan) return enough to make a decent profit at this stage.

The horse that Sharjah beat on his hurldes debut won a maiden today, Great Trango, which wasn't a strong race but always good to have winners in behind. On first thought you'd think Real Steel was the stable number 1 but they definitely don't always know and maybe Townend was getting used to Real Steel as it would be his ride in the Supreme as Ruby will be on something else anyway?
 
I'm still struggling for this race but I know 10/1 for ITCF on bet 365 don't seem tempting when you get get 14/1 any race with PP!
 
Geordieboy83 said:
I'm still struggling for this race but I know 10/1 for ITCF on bet 365 don't seem tempting when you get get 14/1 any race with PP!
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They've eventually realised and cut him to 8/1. I need to start getting ITCF into some multiples.
 
Does anybody know of any planned runs for delirant? Was a horse I was looking forward to seeing.
 
Craigio1985 said:
Does anybody know of any planned runs for delirant? Was a horse I was looking forward to seeing.
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Having gone to Pipe for JP I'd imagine he'll be aimed at a handicap regardless of his ability :devilish:
 
Im possibly a bit biased considering i'v followed him all season as one to watch but i just re watched If The Cap Fit's Kempton win, i think theres loads more improvement to come personally, his jumping was impeccable until novicey mistakes at the last two when he appeared green and immature and got a bit lonely in front, there was still loads in the tank imo and with another runs experience in the locker and if Harry Fry can get him to knuckle down and be a bit more streetwise i think he'll take a lot of beating off a good gallop, delighted with the 33's i got on him a few weeks ago ( I'm assuming many of you joined me in an investment judging by his popularity on here). Here's hoping he stays fit healthy for the big one in March.

The Tolworth at Sandown next weekend usually throws up a few smart ones, won by Finian's Oscar and Yorkhill in the past, hoping Amy Murphy will give Kalashnikov an entry he's another thats taken the eye in the 2m division this season, albeit against inferior fields.
 
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SeanRock said:
Im possibly a bit biased considering iv followed him all season as one to watch but i just re watched If The Cap Fit's Kempton win, i think theres loads more improvement to come personally, his jumping was impeccable until novicey mistakes at the last two when he appeared green and immature and got a bit lonely in front, there was still loads in the tank imo and with another runs experience in the locker and if Harry Fry can get him to knuckle down and be a bit more streetwise i think he'll take a lot of beating off a good gallop, delighted with the 33's i got on him a few weeks ago ( I'm assuming many of you joined me in an investment judging by his popularity on here). Here's hoping he stays fit healthy for the big one in March.
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Hi Sean, you are right abou If the Cap Fits, he was in Timeform's fifty to follow at the start of the season and even now at 10/1 represents good value and is definitely worth keeping onside.
 
The Lick said:
Hi Sean, you are right abou If the Cap Fits, he was in Timeform's fifty to follow at the start of the season and even now at 10/1 represents good value and is definitely worth keeping onside.
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100%, it was actually Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow book that put me onto to him that and Noel Fehily, gave him a very good mention in the jockeys 'view from the saddle' section, Noel and Jamie Codd tipped up plenty of very good winners between them would highly recommend it for anyone looking for upcoming novice hurdle types coming from bumper or in Jamie's case the PTP background.
 
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Tolworth
Claimantakinforgan
Dream Brother
Kalshnikov
Mont Des Avaloirs
Speak Easy
Summerville Boy
The Russian Doyen
Western Ryder
Whatswrongwithyou
Sussex Ranger
We Have a Dream.
 
Expect Claimantakinforgan to cement his position as one of the tip english challengers if taking his chance
 
not sure I want Claimintakinforgan in the tolworth as its got such a lousy supreme record Altior apart.
 
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