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Supreme Novices 2017

Decided that I'm going to back Movewiththetimes (on Moon Racer at 20s but looklike that will be going in the bucket to join the other half of my ante post book!).

Best price at the moment is 8s - with Moon Racer and Neon Wolf likely to come out at final decs do you think I should take the price now? Pretty sure he will shorten into 6s by Monday and can't see him lengthening as much as 2pts on the Tuesday morning but am I wrong?

Anyone have any idea how much the market lengthens on the morning on average over the past few years?
 
Movewiththetimes my bet too at 8s. Perhaps one or two will just be better, but E/W value to be had, especially if you double/treble it up with Yanworth/Un De Sceaux.
 
benkneale03 said:
That's a bizzare shout about ratings and the recent betfair hurdle totally proves how inaccurate it is. If Novices get lower ratings for running against Novices then why were Ballyandy and Movewiththetimes not given a higher rating than Moon Racer considering they pulled clear of the most expensive open handicap in Europe? Move with the times was hampered twice behind Moon Racer then given a 146 for the betfair 2nd. A true rating based on an open handicap and Moon Racer was given a 148, another true reflection considering it was a few lbs better when they met.

You're reasoning suggests the best novices will be competitive in a CH but i'll put my mortgage on 99% of people assuming a novice improves by 10 lbs + from their novice season into their next.

to put it into perspective, MR is about to go shorter for the CH than what he was for the supreme AFTER he was last seen on a racecourse. It is a shocking price.
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Look at West Approach and Wholestone. WA raced in open company so got a higher rating than he would have if he hadn't run 3rd behind UNWIMH.

Another example is Altior's rating. Only as high as it is because he raced in open company.
 
Kevloaf said:
Look at West Approach and Wholestone. WA raced in open company so got a higher rating than he would have if he hadn't run 3rd behind UNWIMH.

Another example is Altior's rating. Only as high as it is because he raced in open company.
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The point i was trying to make Kev but gave up.
 
Totally unconfirmed but rumours are abound that Ruby will ride Crack Mome in the Supreme while Paul Townend will take Melon
 
Moon Racer strong in the exchanges for this. An announcement imminent?
 
jonthehammer said:
Totally unconfirmed but rumours are abound that Ruby will ride Crack Mome in the Supreme while Paul Townend will take Melon
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Paul Townend was adamant he wanted the ride on Bunk off early, is that one drifting then,
 
Kevloaf said:
Look at West Approach and Wholestone. WA raced in open company so got a higher rating than he would have if he hadn't run 3rd behind UNWIMH.

Another example is Altior's rating. Only as high as it is because he raced in open company.
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You've had to find a 2nd season novice hurdler (no interruptions) with 13 runs under it's belt and even that has clocked a 157 so 10lbs off what's needed in a championship race which would be the same for the CH, as I said and why Moon Racer won't be winning. Your other one is probably a superstar who shouldn't be compared.

They weren't under rated against other novices, they earned their rating. There would be a massive trend of novices winning open handicaps if the handicapper automatically gave them 10lbs less than what he thought in a Novice hurdle. There isn't and he doesn't.
 
Why shouldn't Altior be compared? You said MR needed to be a stone better than his Supreme victory to win the Champion Hurdle - that isn't the case imo
 
http://www.skysports.com/racing/res...allion-studs-ebf-national-hunt-novices-hurdle

This result, on good ground at Cheltenham ....lis Pingshou over priced at 50/1? 1/4 the odds.

Plenty have talked up the 2nd (William Henry) needing good ground to show his best, which he had here, and he is a lovely outsider in the Neptune. (12s in places!)

I am sure I've read/heard someone tip this horse up recently too which I'd like to read/listen to again. It looks a very open supreme and if good ground is what this horse needs, he may outrun 50/1 odds?
 
Who is going to be the next one to miss the festival, I've never known anything like it.
 
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