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Supreme Novices 2017

Ruby - Bunk off Early

"Won well at Leopardstown at Christmas and then found only Bacardys too good at the Dublin track in February. He’s come out of the race well and should appreciate the better ground he’s likely to get at Cheltenham rather than the heavy ground at Leopardstown the last day. He has to be a leading player in the Supreme Novices Hurdle where I’ve to decide between him and Melon."

Saw some rumours he might ride Crack Mome yesterday... nonsense.
 
Kevloaf

I am sure I've read/heard someone tip this horse up recently too which I'd like to read/listen to again. It looks a very open supreme and if good ground is what this horse needs, he may outrun 50/1 odds?
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I certainly mentioned him a couple of pages back Kev. Outstanding e/w value at 50/1
 
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Ah yes, just seen. Didn't have time to look at the time when I saw the name, but been back through today and backed him. You don't need much convincing when there are 50s 1/4 the odds really :)
 
Bayoffreedom said:
Kevloaf

I am sure I've read/heard someone tip this horse up recently too which I'd like to read/listen to again. It looks a very open supreme and if good ground is what this horse needs, he may outrun 50/1 odds?
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I certainly mentioned him a couple of pages back Kev. Outstanding e/w value at 50/1
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Which horse are you referring to BoF?
 
....i was hoping so.

I got a message on Friday telling me to back Pingshou. Managed to get some 100's on exchanges.
 
I've got a little bit of 80s on Pingshou and a little bit of 65s about Elgin. Just in case. :very_drunk:
 
Thanks for sharing :highly_amused: I had a look back through his form today, and at 50s, the case for him improving on good ground, as a previous Cheltenham winner over 2m1f was enough for me to get involved.
 
Now movewiththetimes is gone I'm looking for new value. Bunk off Early is some animal and didn't settle in the Deloitte, yet still came with a catching run and looked like taking until the previously out pace Bacardys caught him.

Watch it here... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PfZ9jWU_FBs

Ruby reckons he'll appreciate the better ground, and I love a grey. If I can catch it at 7s or 8s I'll give it a shot.
 
Only 4 runners in the last 6 versions started 10/1 or under having finished in the top 5 in last years Champion Bumper. 3 won, the other finished second

That's a pretty good stat for Ballyandy.... with the only other 2 closely matched on form (moon racer, movewiththetimes) nopw non runners, IF that was strong form, and they can't reverse/confirm it.... is Ballyandy now the obvious winner of this?!
 
Kevloaf said:
Only 4 runners in the last 6 versions started 10/1 or under having finished in the top 5 in last years Champion Bumper. 3 won, the other finished second

That's a pretty good stat for Ballyandy.... with the only other 2 closely matched on form (moon racer, movewiththetimes) nopw non runners, IF that was strong form, and they can't reverse/confirm it.... is Ballyandy now the obvious winner of this?!
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Saw this, but then a bad stat form him is having won the bet fair last time! Handicap winners dont win it often...
 
"Last 20 winners all won at least 50% of all hurdle starts"

Rules Ballyandy out too haha
 
I had 14s for any race, and 25 NRNB for this, because I was sure he was going to be winning the Neptune. Got very lucky here! Can't see him out of the places now for the reasons I gave above.

Crack Mome should sneak a place I think too... getting sweeter on his chances on better ground
 
The prominent bloodstock guy (totally forgotten his name..) at the OLBG preview night was upbeat on Mohayeed's chances as well, said he was a really good flat horse (something like 5th in the Irish Guineas?) who has really taken to hurdles and is improving buckets. Maybe another lively outsider..?
 
The 'flat' bkacground would be against him... and he has to turn form around with Elgin who is a 25/1 shot... not heard Skelton talk him up much either, but 50/1 shots, you expect to able to pick holes!
 
Kevloaf said:
The 'flat' bkacground would be against him... and he has to turn form around with Elgin who is a 25/1 shot... not heard Skelton talk him up much either, but 50/1 shots, you expect to able to pick holes!
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Yeah, the flat thing is something I'd struggle to get over. Prefer some other long shots in this. Wish I'd caught some of Joe Tozzard talking about the Supreme, hearing his thoughts on Pingshou would be awesome.
 
He basically said could run into a place with Pingshou. Dont think they expect much more. Sizing Codelco is the one he gave as best chance of the week
 
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