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Supreme Novices 2017

Why would he have to be better than those three to win this race? It's the weakest champion hurdle I can ever remember!
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Why would he have to be better than those three to win this race? It's the weakest champion hurdle I can ever remember!
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He'll need to be better than them on their supreme hurdle wins. The 3 of them clocked ratings of around 155 max. It'll likely need a rating not far off a stone more than that to win this CH given Yanworth has been putting low to mid 160 ratings in over ground, track and tactics against him.

He was available at 20/1 + NRNB for ages before a few weeks ago when this was still a possibility. I can't remember seeing many people interested in that anywhere? It's now less than half that but is seemingly well supported. I just think people are being sucked in by the story or are too hasty in trying to nick a shortening price rather than comparing actual price to the chances of it improving so much.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Why would he have to be better than those three to win this race? It's the weakest champion hurdle I can ever remember!
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Sublimity
Katchit
Punjabi
Rock on ruby
Jezki


Winner probably rated at least as high as these but probably behind Melon if he wins ? :devilish:
 
They didn't get marks high enough to win the champion because of the opposition they were running against. If Moon Racer is good enough to win the Supreme it would put him right in the mix for this Champion Hurdle.

I'm on at 50/1, think there are one or two others from here on at the same price.
 
Even those ran to about 165 on average when winning the CH. Melon is going to have to win by about a furlong to be given a 160+
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
They didn't get marks high enough to win the champion because of the opposition they were running against. If Moon Racer is good enough to win the Supreme it would put him right in the mix for this Champion Hurdle.

I'm on at 50/1, think there are one or two others from here on at the same price.
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Ill be shocked if they dont try and was agreeing ...5/10 Champion Hurdles were won by relative outsiders.
 
benkneale03 said:
Even those ran to about 165 on average when winning the CH. Melon is going to have to win by about a furlong to be given a 160+
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I was being :devilish: but think moonracer capable of that..
 
Moon Racer has a chance in this and he doesn't need to be the best novice in the last 10 years to win the champion hurdle.
 
He does and he won't run to anything more than low 160s. At least a few lengths off what will be required. Get laying your place if you are each way to make sure the value counts for something. :highly_amused:
 
I think if they were confident about Moon Racer he would be running in the Supreme. Given his age and fragility this looks like something of a last hurrah.

Add in Pipe has been woeful for ages and I can't see him in the first six even if it is a bad year. I suspect it will be a big flop and we won't see much of him again.
 
benkneale03 said:
He does and he won't run to anything more than low 160s. At least a few lengths off what will be required. Get laying your place if you are each way to make sure the value counts for something. :highly_amused:
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Novices get lower ratings because they race against other novices. Had moon racer been running in open company this season he'd have a higher rating.

I don't think he'll either by the way but your comment about him having to be better than Faugheen, Douvan and Altior to win the CH is wrong
 
88 pages and I still haven't got a 'kin clue....
 
Supreme looks there for taking not many runners have done a lot of racing. moon racer very solid in dat race but very inexperienced in ch hurdle.
 
Istabraq said:
88 pages and I still haven't got a 'kin clue....
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I'm with you Ista- going around in circles on this one. I've just taken Pingshou at 40's (now 50/1) and, like a few people have mentioned, he is very interesting. His win over William Henry was much more comfortable than the winning distance indicates and on his last run he was conceding a lot of weight over a distance which was probably too far and on ground too soft. Even with all of that against him, he was still going better than anything between the last two before tiring. Those two races were on the New Course and I think his tactical speed and good jumping will really help on the quicker Old Course. For me he is real value at 50/1.
 
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Faugheen_Machine said:
Novices get lower ratings because they race against other novices. Had moon racer been running in open company this season he'd have a higher rating.

I don't think he'll either by the way but your comment about him having to be better than Faugheen, Douvan and Altior to win the CH is wrong
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That's a bizzare shout about ratings and the recent betfair hurdle totally proves how inaccurate it is. If Novices get lower ratings for running against Novices then why were Ballyandy and Movewiththetimes not given a higher rating than Moon Racer considering they pulled clear of the most expensive open handicap in Europe? Move with the times was hampered twice behind Moon Racer then given a 146 for the betfair 2nd. A true rating based on an open handicap and Moon Racer was given a 148, another true reflection considering it was a few lbs better when they met.

You're reasoning suggests the best novices will be competitive in a CH but i'll put my mortgage on 99% of people assuming a novice improves by 10 lbs + from their novice season into their next.

to put it into perspective, MR is about to go shorter for the CH than what he was for the supreme AFTER he was last seen on a racecourse. It is a shocking price.
 
Is river wylde poor run in previous Cheltenham bumper a reason to stop me backing him. Henderson's record in race sucking me in
 
Trickytrickster said:
Is river wylde poor run in previous Cheltenham bumper a reason to stop me backing him. Henderson's record in race sucking me in
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For me it is, yeah. I can't have a 10/1 shot, in a really competitive field, who got trounced by a load of average bumper horses in his one run at Cheltenham. Looks a bit of a flat track bully to me.

I'm sure he'll prove me wrong and absolutely hack up now, but no value in that price to my eyes. Would rather back Pingshou at 10/1.
 
With the greatest respect to Nicky, he's a great trainer but his novices have been, IMO, more over-hyped for what they have achieved than what Willie's have this season, Jenkins, Lough Derg Spirit, Charli Parcs, all 3 he 'liked' all 3 have run a miserable race at some point (Yes, if Charli Parcs stays up he could have won or finished close) but overall he was very lackluster that day just like Jenkins was at Kempton, I just don't think his horses are good enough in the Novice ranks this season. They may well turn out to be good horses eventually, but he certainly doesn't have another Altior like he seemed to make Charli Parcs a comparison with!
 
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