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Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

ComplyOrDie said:
Yeah full cash, if he doesn't run you have that 75% profit from a non-runner instead of a 100% stake loss if you leave it as is.

It's the option I have gone with, It's hard to take, reducing your potential winnings, but I'd much prefer that than a full stake loss myself. I have left him alone in multi's not covered by NRNB though, the reduction in winnings for them is too much to comprehend a re-investment.
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Cool, edited above is closer to a 30% potential loss, which is even more palatable
 
I’ve cashed and replaced mine, pretty depressing cashing 20 and 25s for 8/1 but I don’t see him coming here.

Think I have a free bet or two that will ride at double digits
 
Hurricane fly said:
I’ve cashed and replaced mine, pretty depressing cashing 20 and 25s for 8/1 but I don’t see him coming here.

Think I have a free bet or two that will ride at double digits
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I'm tempted to do the same but not re-back.

Out of interest. Do you think 8-1 is value for the horse?
 
Yes I think he should be favourite and most importantly I’m confident he would win
 
Too early to cash. The market may just be overreacting to his comments and the cash out wont change.
 
Added Fast Buck today, 40/1 NRNB.

What with the movement of Klassical Dream I just can't see how WPM would go into the Supreme 'under gunned' and Fast Buck's debut run behind Fakir D'ourdairies is working out well, considering he gave that one 16lb that day. In the Supreme it would only be an 8lb allowance, and with improvement likely as well. The difference in price is all on FD's win @ Cheltenham, but 40/1 NRNB compared with 5/1 is enough for me to take a chance.

Also had a small go @ 85's on the exchanges. Due to run Saturday, if he does go and wins, and recovers in time I think he must go to the race with a fair each way shout.
 
Hurricane fly said:
I’ve cashed and replaced mine, pretty depressing cashing 20 and 25s for 8/1 but I don’t see him coming here.

Think I have a free bet or two that will ride at double digits
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Honestly you should be doing cartwheels, you can cash out a bet and get more than your money back, that looks like it could be a loser, people who can cash out bets should be driving Ferraris !!!! (meant tongue in cheek no offence intended)
 
Is it just me or does it not seem mad cashing out a double figure price whenever nothing is confirmed??
 
Arkle said:
Is it just me or does it not seem mad cashing out a double figure price whenever nothing is confirmed??
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Kind of Agree.
Market is just reacting to a possibility when it's just as much of a possibility it goes supreme.
Also got to be careful when backing a HORSE blindly as surely the race and the likely opponents have to be a consideration this close to the festival.
They're also very light on good novices which he's admitted and in past years I've no doubt they'd go supreme with both of these.
It's the give Ruby a ride factor.
And tell the owners that if they go this race they get Ruby etc.
 
Arkle said:
Is it just me or does it not seem mad cashing out a double figure price whenever nothing is confirmed??
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The risk you choose to take, if you want to wait for the confirmation and risk Bet365 suspending your bets (which they seem to be pretty sharp on ATM) before you can react then that's entirely up to you.
 
They control the digit don’t be fooled by something drifting doesn’t mean anything
 
I feel like some have missed the point of CODs advice on KD and cash out. You are not just cashing out per se you are reinvesting the full amount at NRNB, so instead of getting 25/1 you are effectively getting 17/1 at NRNB (close to double his current price). Bearing in mind this is the time of year where the non runners tend to land on a daily basis, it’s one less horse to be overly worried about and if the worse does happen you will still make a couple of quid. I also have a point at 27s with Hills that will have to ride so more than happy with my cash out and reinvest decision
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
I feel like some have missed the point of CODs advice on KD and cash out. You are not just cashing out per se you are reinvesting the full amount at NRNB, so instead of getting 25/1 you are effectively getting 17/1 at NRNB (close to double his current price). Bearing in mind this is the time of year where the non runners tend to land on a daily basis, it’s one less horse to be overly worried about and if the worse does happen you will still make a couple of quid. I also have a point at 27s with Hills that will have to ride so more than happy with my cash out and reinvest decision
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That does explain it quite well.

I don't feel like people need to rush though... the decision won't be made untill the day.... and if something happened to Aramon KD is straight back here?

I've got 3 pts e/w at 25/1 that I'm reluctant to cash out but what you're saying makes sense about 17/1 NRNB.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Added Fast Buck today, 40/1 NRNB.

What with the movement of Klassical Dream I just can't see how WPM would go into the Supreme 'under gunned' and Fast Buck's debut run behind Fakir D'ourdairies is working out well, considering he gave that one 16lb that day. In the Supreme it would only be an 8lb allowance, and with improvement likely as well. The difference in price is all on FD's win @ Cheltenham, but 40/1 NRNB compared with 5/1 is enough for me to take a chance.

Also had a small go @ 85's on the exchanges. Due to run Saturday, if he does go and wins, and recovers in time I think he must go to the race with a fair each way shout.
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Saw a case made elsewhere for that (not as well as you've made) ... will take a closer look before he runs CoD
 
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