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Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

Scooby91 said:
Yes. Theyre good to go.


Hendo gave a list of ones who aren't
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Really, are you sure? Great news if true but assumed AB would need to have his jab. I know Hendo didn’t mention him in his tweet but didn’t take that to mean he was cleared to run. Assumed the opposite after he drifted a point in the Supreme betting with Fakir going fav
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Negatives for me:

Age - Don't see many 4 year old winners, though this could mostly be down to the fact you don't get many runners also. Need to look into more.

Form - It is questionable, he was getting 5lbs from Adjali and that one also overreached for a hurdle and in turn never looked comfortable after that. Would I have Adjali winning a Supreme? Absolutely not. Whilst some of us hold e/way 'hopes' for Adjali in the Triumph I think the general consensus is that one hasn't quite lived up to initial expectations. So how strong is the form really?

Jockey - Nicky has said BG likes Champagne Platinum, so unsure why he'd ride JOB's horse just because it is favourite, although you could still have Mark Walsh in the saddle or even JJ.

Tactics - He seems a keen going type, he will need to refrain from being too keen in a race as competitive as the Supreme. The race is usually run at a fair clip, so potentially he may be OK in this department and so only have it down as a minor negative.

Positives:

Course form - Has the all important course form, can't knock it.

Age - Despite the age being a negative above, it does also allow him to have an 8lb pull with the older horses.

Trainer - Young, up and coming (despite being in the game seemingly forever) NH trainer in JOB, I have no doubt about his ability to have one ready for any race at the festival.

Jockey - Unsure he will have first choice jockey on board, what with BG's connections to Henderson and his liking of Champagne Platinum, but Walsh or JJ are competent enough.

I am worried about FD, as have him covered for absolutely nothing, but I think there are enough questions marks for me personally to leave it that way. May use the SkyBet free bets on numerous accounts on the day, should they offer them, if not he is likely to be left alone.
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That was my thought process with FD, I’ve not backed him since he entered the frame for SNH so may take advantage of the Skybet/Betway 1st race offers and cover him and Al Dancer if he remains in the SNH line up.
 
Getaway Trump runs in the Betfair on Saturday and not the Kingwell
 
Wondering what do people make of Thomas Darby big price Ollie Murphy seems really keen that it will go close
 
Irish2016 said:
Wondering what do people make of Thomas Darby big price Ollie Murphy seems really keen that it will go close
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I've so got him in the book.

Must be vulnerable to one being too good though?
 
Irish2016 said:
Wondering what do people make of Thomas Darby big price Ollie Murphy seems really keen that it will go close
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A fast run 2 miles on decent ground will be perfect imo.

I've backed him and cashed out multiple times this season. I think the way to play him is to back him on the day if you aren't already on. He won't have another run before the supreme so I can't see any dramatic change in his price, and it is a near certainty that there will be extra places available in the supreme.
 
I’ve backed him the past 2 races and grade 2 and not sure if he’s good enough to win a SNH and if it looks as competitive as the market suggests I don’t think he will get a place. Did he have any excuses on Boxing Day at Kempton because he was a bit disappointing then, I know he’s won since. I’ve backed the other Olly Murphy horse Itchy Feet, based on his 2nd to Elixir De Nutz but it’s a place I’m hopeful of.
 
I think Mister Fisher is become over priced for this race, he can win and if he continues drifting without obvious reason could be one of the best bets of the Festival.
 
The King Pimm said:
I’ve backed him the past 2 races and grade 2 and not sure if he’s good enough to win a SNH and if it looks as competitive as the market suggests I don’t think he will get a place. Did he have any excuses on Boxing Day at Kempton because he was a bit disappointing then, I know he’s won since. I’ve backed the other Olly Murphy horse Itchy Feet, based on his 2nd to Elixir De Nutz but it’s a place I’m hopeful of.
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The Kempton and Ascot races weren't run to suit but yet he still ran decent enough races. They won't be hanging around in the Supreme and the end to end gallop, the big field, likely ground and the Cheltenham hill will suit TD.

I'm a super fan. Not even the high head carriage is enough to put me off. :very_drunk:
 
It will be interesting to see if Dicky Johnson rides TD in the SNH, I think that will be a vote of confidence for his chances. From memory this is looking like one of the most competitive SNH’s I can remember, there doesn’t seem to be a stand out superstar yet but 6-7 could realistically win if the horses in top end of the market remain.
 
The King Pimm said:
It will be interesting to see if Dicky Johnson rides TD in the SNH, I think that will be a vote of confidence for his chances. From memory this is looking like one of the most competitive SNH’s I can remember, there doesn’t seem to be a stand out superstar yet but 6-7 could realistically win if the horses in top end of the market remain.
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I think the elixir de nutz / Thomas derby/ DDLYOT/ itchy feet.... form is long gone personally. Anything can happen in a supreme but ability wise alone . I can't see it personally.

Fully expect the angels breath non believers to go quiet pretty soon.

The 2 from the betfair hurdle (depending on result)
The 2 from the Deloitte
Mr fisher
Angels breath. After his run shortly


Would be the clear ones for me.
 
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I think Elixir has a real genuine chance and I’m convinced EDN and Mister Fister will feature in the top 3 finish even though I’ve backed other horses. They remind me of Summerhill Boy and Kalashnikov. In a months time these comments may just be the distant ramblings of a mad man :highly_amused:
 
I can't believe the price of Angels Breath. He will have to do something special this weekend to convince me. He is the ultimate hype horse.

Jumped four hurdles in public and that Ascot form is moderate at best. Anyone taking 5/1 needs there head examined imo. Fair play if you're on at big prices though. :devilish:
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I can't believe the price of Angels Breath. He will have to do something special this weekend to convince me. He is the ultimate hype horse.

Jumped four hurdles in public and that Ascot form is moderate at best. Anyone taking 5/1 needs there head examined imo. Fair play if you're on at big prices though. :devilish:
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If he does something special at the weekend you can wave goodbye to the 5's or 6's that are around, he'll be half that, what with the 'hype' that surrounds him too.

I'm not disagreeing regarding current price on what he has done but we usually get one horse that is shorter on price, based on hype alone, than they should be and initially it was Annamix, now it is Angel's Breath, both horses from yards with some fair history in this race.

FWIW I think Klassical Dream should be the form favourite myself, with Mister Fisher & Aramon in behind, and possibly FD after that, then can look at the likes of Angel's Breath etc.... But 'hype' has it's way over substance in the novice divisions.
 
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Has anyone seen it confirmed that AB can run this weekend? Still concerned his prep has been significantly disrupted as a result of the shutdown and the possibility he hasn’t had his jab.
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Has anyone seen it confirmed that AB can run this weekend? Still concerned his prep has been significantly disrupted as a result of the shutdown and the possibility he hasn’t had his jab.
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There is no need to worry. Tons of races
 
It’s not hype it’s the truth AB’s a machine and will prove it in time
 
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