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Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

ComplyOrDie said:
Noted this somewhere on the forum too Archie, though with the exact detail just the difference in times. 9lb and 4.3s is a fair amount!
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makes apples jade look really fast at 3m 44 the day before on worse ground.
I'd say 4 secs is not enough, and the weight difference is hard to compute.
Some people ignored an 18 second time difference with Vision D'honnuer
 
monkfish said:
This comment from Henderson not been overlooked?

"The plan is to come back to two, I would think. We’ll see what happens tomorrow."
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I don’t think so, Henderson has been clear in repeating this. The difference today though is the owner says they don’t want AI and AB running against each other, a change of view from previous comments...it’s that which complicates things
 
quevega said:
makes apples jade look really fast at 3m 44 the day before on worse ground.
I'd say 4 secs is not enough, and the weight difference is hard to compute.
Some people ignored an 18 second time difference with Vision D'honnuer
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She would have to be to be at the head of the market for a Champion Hurdle wouldn't she?

Worse ground not a problem, she stays further anyway so that wouldn't blunt any speed she has. She was 16 lengths ahead of 2nd, she was quick!

Maiden Hurdles are not run at the same pace as Grade 1's, so I'd be much more inclined to ignore the time difference of them than a Grade 1 personally, and I'm not just saying it to support my case, it is how I see them. I'm not saying SE couldn't win in a quicker time but their must be questions over FD being 2nd favourite for the Supreme when a horse better than him is already 4 seconds slower (albeit based on a small sample) than the 3rd favourite for the race.

There are plenty of variables so I'm not taking it as literal maths in finding the winner but it is something worth noting IMHO.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
She would have to be to be at the head of the market for a Champion Hurdle wouldn't she?

Worse ground not a problem, she stays further anyway so that wouldn't blunt any speed she has. She was 16 lengths ahead of 2nd, she was quick!

Maiden Hurdles are not run at the same pace as Grade 1's, so I'd be much more inclined to ignore the time difference of them than a Grade 1 personally, and I'm not just saying it to support my case, it is how I see them. I'm not saying SE couldn't win in a quicker time but their must be questions over FD being 2nd favourite for the Supreme when a horse better than him is already 4 seconds slower (albeit based on a small sample) than the 3rd favourite for the race.

There are plenty of variables so I'm not taking it as literal maths in finding the winner but it is something worth noting IMHO.
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I find it interesting that she got awarded an RPR of 168 from the RPR which is behind Buveurs effort at Toon and Paisleys at chelt . Thought at weekend Apples looked the most destructive performance this season so far.
 
Outlaw said:
I find it interesting that she got awarded an RPR of 168 from the RPR which is behind Buveurs effort at Toon and Paisleys at chelt . Thought at weekend Apples looked the most destructive performance this season so far.
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I think she was fantastic at the weekend and more impressive than PP. Buveur D'air was electric in the fighting fifth so I couldn't really split them. If Apples Jade turns up in that form there ain't a horse on the planet that can beat her giving her 7lb .

**Apologies, just noticed this is the supreme thread
 
ComplyOrDie said:
She would have to be to be at the head of the market for a Champion Hurdle wouldn't she?

Worse ground not a problem, she stays further anyway so that wouldn't blunt any speed she has. She was 16 lengths ahead of 2nd, she was quick!

Maiden Hurdles are not run at the same pace as Grade 1's, so I'd be much more inclined to ignore the time difference of them than a Grade 1 personally, and I'm not just saying it to support my case, it is how I see them. I'm not saying SE couldn't win in a quicker time but their must be questions over FD being 2nd favourite for the Supreme when a horse better than him is already 4 seconds slower (albeit based on a small sample) than the 3rd favourite for the race.

There are plenty of variables so I'm not taking it as literal maths in finding the winner but it is something worth noting IMHO.
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Last year, the spring juvenile was a lot quicker than the Deloitte, that samcro won.
I remember Kealy making a big thing about it. It was the main reason I backed Farclas as I thought he would be the most likely to stay on the best in the triumph.

My thoughts on the irish supreme horse this year are that I think they might be second best, but I can't really quantify it to be honest I just have the feeling. I'd have thought the same had Quick grabim stayed fit and won at the weekend, and I was holding 50's about him. I have 25s Klassical dream now, but I don't think I like KD or aramon as supreme winners.
 
Has everyone lost faith in Annamix altogether after her debut in Limerick? Surely he was entitled to that run and likely to improve for the run?
 
Would have liked another entry to have any confidence
 
Zipiter said:
Has everyone lost faith in Annamix altogether after her debut in Limerick? Surely he was entitled to that run and likely to improve for the run?
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All my Annamix bets will be cashed out if HE has no entries by 15th Feb tbh.
 
Never mind tomorrow.....this could have an impact on the Festival and rest of NH season :(
 
NJH Blog

Angel’s Breath jumped five hurdles yesterday and you’ve never seen a horse faster in your life – he was like an arrow, so it’s particularly disappointing that he doesn’t get to run at Huntingdon,
 
mayo said:
NJH Blog

Angel’s Breath jumped five hurdles yesterday and you’ve never seen a horse faster in your life – he was like an arrow, so it’s particularly disappointing that he doesn’t get to run at Huntingdon,
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Just came on to post that.

Never seen anything faster !woooo
 
Have I missed the press conference regarding Fakir D'Oudaries running in the Supreme?

A clear 2nd favourite now (without NRNB concession) ?
 
Kevloaf said:
Have I missed the press conference regarding Fakir D'Oudaries running in the Supreme?

A clear 2nd favourite now (without NRNB concession) ?
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Snowballaments... All playing follow the leader, as I can't imagine they've taken too much money.
 
Kevloaf said:
Have I missed the press conference regarding Fakir D'Oudaries running in the Supreme?

A clear 2nd favourite now (without NRNB concession) ?
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I'm happy he goes there personally. I'd be pissed if I was on him any race. Looks all but certain he does go there.. They wouldn't be laying him at that price for the triumph other wise.
 
I'd consider a bet on Fakir D'Oudaries at his best price without NRNB now to bew the worst bet possible in this market.

Worse than the 4 hurdle wonder (who I still love but can see why people would knock the price now)
 
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