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Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

doctorwu said:
Kev,
The stat is a FACT
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So was "you can't win a Gold Cup with one prep run"


The "fact" is Mullins and Henderson aren't good enough to train a Supreme winner with two or less runs? We'll see.



I guess we pick 16 years to not include Henderson winning it with Flown on the back of 1 run?
 
Klassical Dream is my horse for the race and think 8/1 is still too big

Just not often you see a stat like that that the two principles in the market at this stage don’t hit.

I’ve the upmost faith in WPM doing it and again am backing Penhill just like I used to back Quevega but the list of horses he’s had like that and won as a novice would not be long.
 
Yeah, and if you genuinely believe Mullins can't win the Supreme with a Novice Hurdler on the back of two runs, but if he'd have popped him out in November tailed off he'd have a better chance then I can't agree?

That stat doesn't even back itself up.

The majority of horses would have more than one or two runs... but Klassical Dream had runs in France too? He's not as inexperienced as others would be, and the 'point' of the "MORE" than two runs, is surely routed in experience?
 
Hurricane fly said:
Klassical Dream is my horse for the race and think 8/1 is still too big

Just not often you see a stat like that that the two principles in the market at this stage don’t hit.

I’ve the upmost faith in WPM doing it and again am backing Penhill just like I used to back Quevega but the list of horses he’s had like that and won as a novice would not be long.
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The amount of seasons where Willie and Henderson have HAD to keep horses back isn't factored into the stat....

...so I don't see it's relevance personally, or certainly wouldn't decide whether to back a horse or not based on what horse had 3 runs randomly 14 years ago
 
I'd also say Labaik doesn't hit the trend

RR 1 1 RR RR 6 (the 6 he actually refused to race and was beaten 100L)
then won the Supreme.

Second that day, good old Melon, with his 1 run that season.


I don't like the stat :p (can you tell?)
 
Kevloaf said:
Yeah, and if you genuinely believe Mullins can't win the Supreme with a Novice Hurdler on the back of two runs, but if he'd have popped him out in November tailed off he'd have a better chance then I can’t agree?
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I do think he can do it hence KD being my Supreme horse, but it still makes for discussion.

The stat was more for my anti-AB stance but noticed it applied to KD aswell.

You mention about how they have had to hold them back but the ground hasn’t always stopped them running novices.

Henderson started Altior out on good ground in his first two races.
 
Hurricane fly said:
I do think he can do it hence KD being my Supreme horse, but it still makes for discussion.

The stat was more for my anti-AB stance but noticed it applied to KD aswell.

You mention about how they have had to hold them back but the ground hasn’t always stopped them running novices.

Henderson started Altior out on good ground in his first two races.
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I think the ground factor has been overplayed myself.

I think it's just a long season with 4 festivals within close proximity of each other and the trainers like Willie & Nicky want to attack every one of them with their best and so have delayed some of their horses being out.

Plenty of Willie's have run on better than soft ground so would that mean he cares less about others well being as opposed to his top ones, I highly doubt it.
 
His last run in France was in the June so technically he ran three times but only twice in Ireland
 
Certainly started a discussion :p

CoD makes a better point, they "4 major festivals" may start changing the landscape of these 'trends' and 'stats'.

It may not.
 
I think it will for the Irish challenge but 5(?) horses went over from the U.K. to challenge, which is frankly pathetic/disappointing so don’t see any change to the stats affecting this side of the water.
 
Hurricane fly said:
I think it will for the Irish challenge but 5(?) horses went over from the U.K. to challenge, which is frankly pathetic/disappointing so don’t see any change to the stats affecting this side of the water.
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Very good article in Sundays RP referring to your point. The view was that the Irish trained horses have the upper hand these days, hence a small travelling bunch from this side of the water. I agree with that view as THE festival shows that they can dominate in our own backyard.
 
I look at Angels Breath and I think wow that is a terrible price based on his one questionable piece of form. Then I think hell hes been shortening and shortening ever since that race and you just have to trust a yard like Henderson to know when they have one that’s special. But then I think actually Henderson has a pretty average record at winning the Supreme.

Would I back at 5/1? God no

Tbh I don’t care I’m sat on 25s
 
The form couldn't have Angel's Breath single figures, it hasn't worked out that well at all really...

but you get the impression (is this public knowledge???) that he's the best of them working at home...?
 
Kevloaf said:
The form couldn't have Angel's Breath single figures, it hasn't worked out that well at all really...

but you get the impression (is this public knowledge???) that he's the best of them working at home...?
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He’s currently 7/2 2nd fav for the class 3 novice hurdle at Newbury in Saturday - how can he be 5/1 for this ?????
 
Cashew King said:
He’s currently 7/2 2nd fav for the class 3 novice hurdle at Newbury in Saturday - how can he be 5/1 for this ?????
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I guess the answer to that is...

because the trainer has seen him do more than he's shown?
 
Kevloaf said:
The form couldn't have Angel's Breath single figures, it hasn't worked out that well at all really...

but you get the impression (is this public knowledge???) that he's the best of them working at home...?
Click to expand...

Is he working with Buvuer D'air, Altior and Birchdale ??:devilish:
 
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