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Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

boopa said:
Good spot. Another fake gamble it seems.
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I'd be of the opposite opinion. As a general rule.

They're stuck unibet. They're well aware that people are looking at there odds in relation to hendo . And the blog says angels breath. So they'd have to take the small ammount of money that anyone would want on the other horse . As they can't be seen to cut him regardless. Even if they knew.
 
Grinch said:
the overall times have no relevance in evaluating the merits of the race.. it certainly shouldnt form the basis of assigning achievement to either ..
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I think you have to take times into account a little given it’s the Same day, course and distance. But I understand what you’re saying and boopa’s correct that visions first race was run quicker, but he finished fourth !
Ive already said I’d be cautious with both races as pointing vtowards future champions.
The market appear to show that vision has been more popular than felix but I know who achieved more because of the times.
It’s difficult to assess maiden winners as opposed to races ran at championships pace
 
RPRs only rate VDH 119 for his success but then they only rated KD 120 for his.

If we are comparing times KD ran his 7.2s slow + the race after, another maiden City Island ran his 8.6 slow. Yet give him a 4pd higher RPR. Haven't watched back the replays in full yet as in work, but i want to try + work out why! City Island btw, is no slouch and i think hes a lurker in the Ballymore if that's where he ends up.

The thing about Felix D for me is due to the fact he runs with the choke out from the front, we know his level pretty much right now. VDH on the other hand has probably a lot more improvement to come. I suspect the times are hard to make a firm judgement on at all. Different weights which make a little difference as well.
 
jack1092 said:
RPRs only rate VDH 119 for his success but then they only rated KD 120 for his.

If we are comparing times KD ran his 7.2s slow + the race after, another maiden City Island ran his 8.6 slow. Yet give him a 4pd higher RPR. Haven't watched back the replays in full yet as in work, but i want to try + work out why! City Island btw, is no slouch and i think hes a lurker in the Ballymore if that's where he ends up.

The thing about Felix D for me is due to the fact he runs with the choke out from the front, we know his level pretty much right now. VDH on the other hand has probably a lot more improvement to come. I suspect the times are hard to make a firm judgement on at all. Different weights which make a little difference as well.
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I personally don't rate either at this stage. I'll make that clear first.

But Felix, having won the Moscow flyer under positive riding against previous winners in a time 18seconds faster is more impressive to me.
Than a maiden winner on his second start (with a reputation in a very good stable) winning a lacking in depth maiden in a time 18 seconds slower. Vision looked good when winning this and I understand that sectionals (if we had them) may show an impressive finish etc.

But Felix can be backed for the Supreme at 25-1 now
and Vision is best priced 12-1

And what the Grinch said is completely correct.
The times of the respective races shouldn't be used to compare achievements. But Obviously many punters and bookmakers have (only the complete opposite of what it probably should be)

and after all that Vision hacks up in the deloitte (which is entirely possible)
 
jack1092 said:
RPRs only rate VDH 119 for his success but then they only rated KD 120 for his.

If we are comparing times KD ran his 7.2s slow + the race after, another maiden City Island ran his 8.6 slow. Yet give him a 4pd higher RPR. Haven't watched back the replays in full yet as in work, but i want to try + work out why! City Island btw, is no slouch and i think hes a lurker in the Ballymore if that's where he ends up.

The thing about Felix D for me is due to the fact he runs with the choke out from the front, we know his level pretty much right now. VDH on the other hand has probably a lot more improvement to come. I suspect the times are hard to make a firm judgement on at all. Different weights which make a little difference as well.
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On the 26th December Klassical Dream was the quickest of the first three 2m hurdle races, which included, what looked like, a below par, Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2). Klassical Dream done this despite making an absolute hash of the last hurdle and stayed right through to the line. Given form has been franked by Vision D'Honneur (improved for the run) since then and with expected improvement from Klassical Dream nigh on a given, the only thing keeping Klassical Dream at a higher price than Vision D'Honneur are the difference in their silks.

IF you like the Irish form Klassical Dream is now the value @ 20/1 IMHO.
 
With regards to Felix Desjy could we honestly see him getting his own way in a Supreme, Elixir De Nutz for one, may have something to say about that and I'd rather have the latter's attitude than that of FD, personally.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
On the 26th December Klassical Dream was the quickest of the first three 2m hurdle races, which included, what looked like, a below par, Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2). Klassical Dream done this despite making an absolute hash of the last hurdle and stayed right through to the line. Given form has been franked by Vision D'Honneur (improved for the run) since then and with expected improvement from Klassical Dream nigh on a given, the only thing keeping Klassical Dream at a higher price than Vision D'Honneur are the difference in their silks.

IF you like the Irish form Klassical Dream is now the value @ 20/1 IMHO.
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I'd second that, just need willie to get one to follow up a good run.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
With regards to Felix Desjy could we honestly see him getting his own way in a Supreme, Elixir De Nutz for one, may have something to say about that and I'd rather have the latter's attitude than that of FD, personally.
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No,there'll be a lot of xxx's and De's battling for the pace
 
Aramon ran faster than Jetez (same course and distance) carrying 19lbs more. People are still underestimating Aramon. That was a rock solid performance on the clock, a decent gallop and a potent turn of foot.
 
quevega said:
I personally don't rate either at this stage. I'll make that clear first.

But Felix, having won the Moscow flyer under positive riding against previous winners in a time 18seconds faster is more impressive to me.
Than a maiden winner on his second start (with a reputation in a very good stable) winning a lacking in depth maiden in a time 18 seconds slower. Vision looked good when winning this and I understand that sectionals (if we had them) may show an impressive finish etc.

But Felix can be backed for the Supreme at 25-1 now
and Vision is best priced 12-1

And what the Grinch said is completely correct.
The times of the respective races shouldn't be used to compare achievements. But Obviously many punters and bookmakers have (only the complete opposite of what it probably should be)

and after all that Vision hacks up in the deloitte (which is entirely possible)
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Interesting i don't think it'll work out a bad race. The second was well spoken about by Ruby, now perhaps he won't be as good on the track, but they did say they haven't let loose on one they think is better than him yet. The third was a very decent flat horse, i wouldn't be surprised if it's a better performance than some think.
 
VD

“I think he’ll go for the two-mile Grade One at the Dublin Racing Festival. But I haven’t spoken to Michael and Eddie (O’Leary, owners) yet and they might have different ideas,” Elliott told Racing TV.

“He might not look the quickest in the world, but I think he’s an unassuming horse, he’s always very relaxed – and I think he’s a nice horse.

“He learned a lot from his debut. He jumped very big that day and he was very green – it all happened very fast for him that day at Leopardstown.

“As much as I was disappointed on the day he got beat, it might not have been a bad thing.”
 
boopa said:
Mister Fisher 2/1 for the trial now.
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I really like Mister Fisher and have him at 20/1 for this. I know he was getting weight but I was impressed in how he jumped the last and finished his race at Kempton. Interesting that Nicky said at the start of the season he would have won the award for 'biggest grower' (I put that in quotes not knowing what the exact words were, but it was something like that). Into 13/8, money coming
 
Interesting MOL says didn't look the quickest in the world- i thought he showed a fair turn of foot.....interested in sectionals...
 
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