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Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

Surely wait for NRNB before cash out?
 
Kevloaf said:
Surely wait for NRNB before cash out?
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Wanted to get out in case bad news comes out.
Hes already went out to 16s and now 20s. Could get bigger.
Could be something wrong with him, they could say anything.
Id rather be out now for full cashout instead of hoping to nick a few quid. It wont be much id imagine anyway.
 
jonthehammer said:
Too early to cashout Annamix for me. I will await to see him again. Its one run after 800 days off the track. I am happy with QG and AB both at 33s and Annamix at 20s so far.
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Completely agree with this Jon

Looked to me like he rallied and then got tired. It’s hurdling was very economical aswell

I’ve cashed out a double with Altior, but only so I can replace it for the same return but now with Altior at NRNB

As I said before Annamixs opening price was a joke regardless of the hype he’d been off 800 days! Think the SP was much more realistic including the hype factor.
 
Hurricane fly said:
Completely agree with this Jon

Looked to me like he rallied and then got tired. It’s hurdling was very economical aswell

I’ve cashed out a double with Altior, but only so I can replace it for the same return but now with Altior at NRNB

As I said before Annamixs opening price was a joke regardless of the hype he’d been off 800 days! Think the SP was much more realistic including the hype factor.
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Got to forgive one run for sure, especially after that time off the track. I will bide my time. Agree about the SP as well.
 
KingSprinterSacre said:
Wanted to get out in case bad news comes out.
Hes already went out to 16s and now 20s. Could get bigger.
Could be something wrong with him, they could say anything.
Id rather be out now for full cashout instead of hoping to nick a few quid. It wont be much id imagine anyway.
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But his NRNB price wouldn't be bigger?

If something does 'come out' we'll know soon enough?
 
FaugheenTheMachine said:
Doesn’t look a vintage year for 2m novice hurdlers to say the least
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Hard to tell just yet. Angel's Breath could be anything. I wouldn't give up on anything that is beat first time out either. Mister Fisher jumped up to 4th favourite after his win on his second start this season, Annamix could well do the same and then he'll be back in contention. Quick Grabim has done nothing wrong, bar the time 'they' got him beat. Tornado Flyer could be anything. There are plenty still to like.
 
Annamix badly needed that , I didnt see a fit horse in paddock and during race. Only Mullins knows what his fitness levels were going into race , sure to be a different horse next time out.

Angels Breath looked good in winning , just a word of warning with Cheltenham in mind , he got pulled out of race because ground was to quick.

The form that keeps getting franked is Quick Grabjim , and he does like good ground.
 
Kevloaf said:
But his NRNB price wouldn't be bigger?

If something does 'come out' we'll know soon enough?
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no his price over the next 24 hours could be, in line with PP at 25s. by then we would be in negative cashout. If anything was announced in the time before nrnb id be kicking myself.
The NRNB price I don't expect to yield much of a profit for myself (I was on at 20s), i'd expect the shortest it goes would be 16s and therefore I wouldn't be nicking much profit.
would rather be out now and assess later.
 
Annamix looks like he'll follow the list of Ricci hype horses that fail to run the year they are meant to, and don't live up to the hype the year after.
 
Not many positives to take from the Annamix run. Another Mullins hype horse and the bookies must be loving them. Put them in the betting shorter than they should and people will still back them.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Not many positives to take from the Annamix run. Another Mullins hype horse and the bookies must be loving them. Put them in the betting shorter than they should and people will still back them.
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Maybe I should say Ricci, rather than Mullins.
 
So just tied up my two antepost bets for the Supreme, which happens to cover off me if we get spring ground or (more likely given winter hasnt really hit us yet) another wet and testing festival.

I wasn't impressed with the Irish last year, and I'm not impressed with them this time around. I think Quick Grabim is the best of the bunch but I feel he needs the race to be setup for him, which he will struggle to do in march.

I jumped onto Angel Breath at 25/1 before he won his first, and I am happy with this selection if we have a wet festival. This bet actual goes against my trends and pedigree analysis for this race, but oh well! I'm on, and he's likely to shorten up again.

Yeah, I know it's easy to come out with a big ticket when everything else has been bumped out, whilst your's has shortened, but I really do think this is the horse to beat if the going is soft or worse in March.

I promise I'm not being lazy, but the other horse I like happened to run into second place against Angels Breath - I've taken 64/1 on Danny Kirwan. Good ground, in a truly ran race is the key for this horse. I dont think he needs to go down the Neptune route, the supreme will be right up his street. More importantly, he's been added to the tracker for next season as he looks like he could be a useful stayer. Pedigree it spot on for this, and think he would come on leaps and bounds

Yes, people will be shouting that he should down the Neptune route, I think otherwise. Supreme all the way
 
I've re-watched the Annamix race a few times in hope of finding excuses and ultimately I can't find any of note, not from the performance itself, however I have a few things in the back of my mind that could excuse such a run/holding off on a cash out:

First run in over 800 days against some match fit rivals

Last seasons Supreme winner lost his first 3 starts before winning the race

Mullins had a below par Christmas IMO (not for the first time either, to then come good at the festival)

Don't really have much else to offer, but have only cashed out a few multi's whereby Annamix is not the only one that has run below par.

I do find it odd, and I know the level of race will make a difference, but Annamix trebled in price with some bookmakers upon defeat, but horses you've had the likes of Buveur D'air and Kalashnikov pushed out very slightly in comparison and then Santini cut for a 3 1/2 length defeat, and Lalor cut for sitting in his box despite a 11 3/4 length defeat by the same horse Kalashnikov only got beat 1 1/4 lengths by.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I've re-watched the Annamix race a few times in hope of finding excuses and ultimately I can't find any of note, not from the performance itself, however I have a few things in the back of my mind that could excuse such a run/holding off on a cash out:

First run in over 800 days against some match fit rivals

Last seasons Supreme winner lost his first 3 starts before winning the race

Mullins had a below par Christmas IMO (not for the first time either, to then come good at the festival)

Don't really have much else to offer, but have only cashed out a few multi's whereby Annamix is not the only one that has run below par.

I do find it odd, and I know the level of race will make a difference, but Annamix trebled in price with some bookmakers upon defeat, but horses you've had the likes of Buveur D'air and Kalashnikov pushed out very slightly in comparison and then Santini cut for a 3 1/2 length defeat, and Lalor cut for sitting in his box despite a 11 3/4 length defeat by the same horse Kalashnikov only got beat 1 1/4 lengths by.
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He wants a trip imo. I'll give him a chance over 2 1/2 before I cash the ballymore. Already cashed the supreme for money back.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
.
I do find it odd, and I know the level of race will make a difference, but Annamix trebled in price with some bookmakers upon defeat, but horses you've had the likes of Buveur D'air and Kalashnikov pushed out very slightly in comparison and then Santini cut for a 3 1/2 length defeat, and Lalor cut for sitting in his box despite a 11 3/4 length defeat by the same horse Kalashnikov only got beat 1 1/4 lengths by.
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We have a fair idea how good those horse are though CoD. Annamix was priced on hype alone and it is easy for them to push him right out. Let's face it, if he wasn't a Ricci/Mullins horse no one would be suggesting he's the Supreme winner after that run.

I'm not trying to aftertime as I'd had a nibble at the 20/1 but I can't see how he turns into a festival winner after today.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
We have a fair idea how good those horse are though CoD. Annamix was priced on hype alone and it is easy for them to push him right out. Let's face it, if he wasn't a Ricci/Mullins horse no one would be suggesting he's the Supreme winner after that run.

I'm not trying to aftertime as I'd had a nibble at the 20/1 but I can't see how he turns into a festival winner after today.
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Buveur D'air, yeah, but the other 3 are 'novice' chasers, so what they can achieve over fences is still very up in the air, especially as they have all now been beat. That defeat could be first time out, like Annamix or second time out like the others mentioned. Defi Du Seuil is a prime example, he got hammered by Lalor on chase debut, but now finds himself joint favourite for the JLT, after 1 win next time out. A horse is only ever as good as it's last run, and on that basis, I agree, Annamix was all 'hype' but the game isn't over just yet, though he now has more to prove than ever.

'IF' Annamix wins next time out, what price does he go?
 
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