Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

[charlie]

What is causing the reduction in price for annamix?

On 13th October Rich Ricci put up Annamix as his horse to follow live on ITV. Thousands would have seen that and the money will have subsequently followed causing the price to shorten. Add to that the strength and depth of Willies novice hurdlers combined with his three year dominance with Ricci owned horses in 2013, 2014 and 2015, and you have 'winning formula' that lives long in the memory of punters so loads jump on. It's worth pointing out Welshman that this happens every year with one of Willies. Min, Melon and Getabird were all short priced favs and were turned over.

Kev makes an excellent point which is fear of loss driving a market move. Jackiemoon makes an excellent point in that Annamix will probably go 4/1 after a 'facile debut success'. Rather than back at 14's with B365, I am going to take 13's on the exchange and then lay off after what is hopefully a 'facile debut success'.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

On 13th October Rich Ricci put up Annamix as his horse to follow live on ITV. Thousands would have seen that and the money will have subsequently followed causing the price to shorten. Add to that the strength and depth of Willies novice hurdlers combined with his three year dominance with Ricci owned horses in 2013, 2014 and 2015, and you have 'winning formula' that lives long in the memory of punters so loads jump on. It's worth pointing out Welshman that this happens every year with one of Willies. Min, Melon and Getabird were all short priced favs and were turned over.

Kev makes an excellent point which is fear of loss driving a market move. Jackiemoon makes an excellent point in that Annamix will probably go 4/1 after a 'facile debut success'. Rather than back at 14's with B365, I am going to take 13's on the exchange and then lay off after what is hopefully a 'facile debut success'.

Ricci put Senewalk up as his horse to follow a couple of years ago and the exact same thing happened.

 

[cpfcpatriot]

Ricci put Senewalk up as his horse to follow a couple of years ago and the exact same thing happened.

From my memory, didn’t Ricci get asked about Senewalk after a move in the market? It was definitely different vibes to the likes of Allez Colombieres (rip), Douvan, Min and to an extent, Melon (different owner but known about early).

Wasn’t it around Sandown time? When Willie was going for the title? Or at Aintree? Much earlier than the usual vibes.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

From my memory, didn’t Ricci get asked about Senewalk after a move in the market? It was definitely different vibes to the likes of Allez Colombieres (rip), Douvan, Min and to an extent, Melon (different owner but known about early).

Wasn’t it around Sandown time? When Willie was going for the title? Or at Aintree? Much earlier than the usual vibes.

I think he put Senewalk up when interviewed by RUK during Royal Ascot and that started the gamble.

 

[Kevloaf]

A general wondering.....

Is Annamix so strong now because we aren't hearing any vibes about any other horses from the yard? Would we have had another one mentioned by now? Nothing came out of the stable tour as a standout?

Even other yards, [Commander Of Fleet] (who was all the rage before the Supreme was mentioned) hasn't gathered any momentum whatsoever!

 

[ComplyOrDie]

A general wondering.....

Is Annamix so strong now because we aren't hearing any vibes about any other horses from the yard? Would we have had another one mentioned by now? Nothing came out of the stable tour as a standout?

Even other yards, [Commander Of Fleet] (who was all the rage before the Supreme was mentioned) hasn't gathered any momentum whatsoever!

I was wondering about this earlier Kev.

Danny Kirwan, Pym, Commander Of Fleet all, shall we say, had a level of confidence behind them, but soon to be going in to November and only Annamix is the one with money behind it.

Commander Of Fleet has had money behind it on the exchange but for both the Supreme & Ballymore, and therefore this may well be holding the bookmaker prices for now, but I'm sure the money was down on Samcro way before now so it does seem a little quiet from that perspective.

I'm used to there being at least one or 2 'talking' horses by now but as it stands the only real solid one at this stage of ante post betting is Annamix.

Maybe there is just a lack of quality opposition this coming season, time will tell, obviously, but nothing is standing out on the betting front yet.

 

[Scooby91]

Annamix: He’s in great form and he’s cantering away. He obviously had a setback last year but we think he’s a good horse and hopefully he retains all of his ability. It will be nice to get him back and run him in a maiden hurdle. He did do some nice bits of work 12-14 months ago but we haven’t done anything serious with him so far this season. He was a nice horse then and he was showing the right signs. Hopefully, he still can.

Quick Grabim: He’s had two great wins already this season and he improved from Listowel to absolutely bolt up at Tipperary. I’d imagine he’ll be heading the Royal Bind direction and whether he has another run before then, I’m not sure. He’s an improving horse with plenty of experience and he’d definitely be in the top bracket of our better novice hurdlers.

 

[Kevloaf]

I'd have preferred him to have done 'something serious' this season ... price crash has no substance other than he was showing signs and he's doing well despite not being addled to do anything?

 

[Scooby91]

I'd have preferred him to have done 'something serious' this season ... price crash has no substance other than he was showing signs and he's doing well despite not being addled to do anything?

I don't think they'd want to hype him up. Iv never seen Willie or ruby hype any novice up before debut. Normally wait till after they've ran there maiden first. Ie min, vautour, melon


MIN
After race at Punchestown Thu, 10th Dec, 2015 (1st) “The rumours are true!,” W P Mullins

Vautour
After race at Navan Sat, 7th Dec, 2013 (1st) That's what he was showing at home. We think he's a very good horse and we'll probably look for something over Christmas for him now. W P Mullins

Melon
After race at Leopardstown Sun, 29th Jan, 2017 (1st) He just went a bit long at the last and genuflected a little bit. He’d been showing me he’s a good horse for a long while. He did a nice gallop in the autumn and I was afraid to do any more with him."


Nothing before hand.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Sebastopol, Seven De Baune and Thomas Darby declared for the 2m maiden Hurdle at Cheltenham tomorrow. That’s going to be decent early form for the winner. Olly Murphy did have Brewin’upastorm entered too but he’ll be able to get a handle of the form with Thomas Darby. It should prove a nice early season contest.

 

[charlie]

Gone back in on Raya Time @ 40/1.

 

[Kevloaf]

Sebastopol, Seven De Baune and Thomas Darby declared for the 2m maiden Hurdle at Cheltenham tomorrow. That’s going to be decent early form for the winner. Olly Murphy did have Brewin’upastorm entered too but he’ll be able to get a handle of the form with Thomas Darby. It should prove a nice early season contest.

Have to be careful not to get too carried away though ... the roll of honour is full of nice horses that didn't quite reach very lofty heights. (Cheltenham).

I'm hoping for a big run from Sebastapol personally but I am not backing him today

 

[Innoko]

Statistically, this October meeting very rarely points to winners in March.

 

[Viking Flagship]

Purely out of interest I’ve just had a quick look back at the winners from the last 5 seasons of this October meeting...

2017
No winners did anything of note at 2018 festival

2016
Fox Norton - won the 2m handicap chase and was then a close 2nd in QM
Wholestone - won the 3m novice hurdle and was then 3rd in AB

2015
Rock The World - won the 2m novice chase and was then 3rd in Grand Annual

2014
Moon Racer – won the bumper and then won Champion Bumper
* Tiger Roll also won at this meeting but was unplaced in that season’s festival

2013
Lac Fontana – won the maiden hurdle and then won County Hurdle
Balthazar King – won the 3m handicap chase and then won XC
John’s Spirit – won 2m 4f handicap chase and was then 4th in the Plate
Thomas Crapper – won 2m 5f handicap hurdle and was then 2nd in the Martin Pipe

So, the last 5 October meetings have produced 3 winners at the same season’s festival plus a further 5 placed horses. Whilst not being prolific I’d say it’s reasonable and certainly doesn’t suggest that we should be ignoring the winners from this weekend.

 

[Innoko]

Its subjective I guess but...

In the last four seasons (around 56 races). Only Moon Racer won in March. :highly_amused:

 

[JackieMoon33]

Sebastopol disappointed there despite the hype (I still think Fame And Glory progeny will need 2 and a half) but the winner looked good in the end despite being very green. I doubt the stats mentioned above will be threatened.

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Sebastopol disappointed there despite the hype (I still think Fame And Glory progeny will need 2 and a half) but the winner looked good in the end despite being very green. I doubt the stats mentioned above will be threatened.

Glad I only backed him with a couple of free bets in the end, was ready to pull the trigger in running, but never threatened

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Sebastopol disappointed there despite the hype (I still think Fame And Glory progeny will need 2 and a half) but the winner looked good in the end despite being very green. I doubt the stats mentioned above will be threatened.

If you are correct then Commander Of Fleet will most certainly be needing to head for the Ballymore then.

 

[JackieMoon33]

If you are correct then Commander Of Fleet will most certainly be needing to head for the Ballymore then.

I said the same on the Ballymore thread a while back and referenced Commander Of Fleet too. I certainly would not tear up any tickets.

 

[Scooby91]

Annamix going to be smashed in again. Mullins talking about the work he was doing at home this morning on itv. And Asterion forlonge for the bumper