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Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

Scooby91 said:
Mister fisher recieved weight but he had a good bit back in reserve too. They seem to like angels breath over him though. But that dosent always translate to the track.
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I think they know Angel's Breath is better between the two right now.

I've started to get quite attached to Mister Fisher though, he could be a really good horse next season.
 
monkfish said:
AB joint second favourite on the machine.
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I’ve gone through this all again, and i’ve come down massively on AB, with Aramon as the next best bet. Basically Southfield Stone has 5lb from AB on good ground when all his past decent form is on good. It was only AB’s second run. They both beat the course record, and AB did it carrying 5 more. He’d only had a flu jab a week or so before. He is sure to come on massively, and based on his ptp and the yards words, softer ground will suit. Hendo felt Kempton on good was “plenty sharp enough” for him. AB has an OR of 151. If he’s going to come on massively from that, he’ll win the Supreme. Simple as that. Who else is genuinely a 155+ OR horse on this race?? Al Dancer? Maybe. Aramon? If he comes on. Grand Sancy? I think he’s shown his improvement.

I think the ground will bring the best out of AB and he’ll scoot up the hill. The yard know what yhey’re Training. If they’ve persuaded Dai to keep AB in the Supreme, it’s because they all think he has the beating of Al Dancer.
 
I wouldn't know. His run at Kempton got a lot of previous doubters onside, tom segal, Simon rowlands and the like. Crooks peak won today who narrowly beat Danny Kirwan before angels breath beat him comfortably. Form gurus trying to scrape something together maybe.
 
Times were quick because it was good ground. When is Kempton ever good ground? SS is a big staying chaser he made two mistakes and hung across the track yet still held him off. Softer ground and stiffer test will suit and he did look a bit fat so I wouldn't write him off but I wouldn't mark him up either.
 
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As an Aramon supporter Boopa would you not be concerned about softer ground for him?
 
I've made his case all season but I've also backed AB 33/1 KD 33/1 and VD 220/1.

I try to avoid biases for horses I bet according to price at 65s he was over and he's still over now at 14s, I'd have him close to fav. His best performance on the clock came on good to soft at Christmas. I don't think he liked the ground at DRF he didn't change off his off fore up the straight. He would have won comfortably if he ran straight. The ground will be fine.

I actually think KD is better suited to the Supreme a strongly run stamina test would be ideal. Aramon has more tactical speed he would be suited to the Ballymore Ruby could put him to sleep and use his turn of foot but that wont happen.
 
Not a fan of Grand Sancy he looks exposed. VDF is a bit of a dog he hates winning and SR was having a pipe opener I wouldn't take that form literally.
 
boopa said:
I've made his case all season but I've also backed AB 33/1 KD 33/1 and VD 220/1.

I try to avoid biases for horses I bet according to price at 65s he was over and he's still over now at 14s, I'd have him close to fav. His best performance on the clock came on good to soft at Christmas. I don't think he liked the ground at DRF he didn't change off his off fore up the straight. He would have won comfortably if he ran straight. The ground will be fine.

I actually think KD is better suited to the Supreme a strongly run stamina test would be ideal. Aramon has more tactical speed he would be suited to the Ballymore Ruby could put him to sleep and use his turn of foot but that wont happen.
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Apart from the off fore comment you've repeated again (without explanation):devilish:

I agree with the last paragraph, and if you had to split them, I'd go with what you said.
you arguably need more stamina in the supreme as every one's at max excitement and they can go mental most times up front.
 
punterorplonker said:
Bowen..How sure. Basically if j mgraph could get the ride then I'm.out. :)
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Bowen has been on twice, Nico once - but he'll be on Angel's Breath.

I'd be fairly confident.
 
quevega said:
Apart from the off fore comment you've repeated again (without explanation):devilish:

I agree with the last paragraph, and if you had to split them, I'd go with what you said.
you arguably need more stamina in the supreme as every one's at max excitement and they can go mental most times up front.
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Have you looked into how fast they go in a Supreme and how fast in a Ballymore?

You have mentioned a few times thre being VERY little difference in the Arkle and JLT (in terms of jumping)... but it must also affect the stamina required.
 
It's not a stamina issue for Aramon, more that they think he'll settle better behind a fast pace.
 
Kevloaf said:
Have you looked into how fast they go in a Supreme and how fast in a Ballymore?

You have mentioned a few times thre being VERY little difference in the Arkle and JLT (in terms of jumping)... but it must also affect the stamina required.
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summerville boy 30.27mph
samcro 29.77 mph

rough calculations of average speed.

Not a lot in it as per the chasers.

I think I've seen stats previously that the early gallop in the ballymore is often slower than the supreme, which lends itself to a finisher sometimes. And i think thats what boopa was referring to.

This is obviously not always the case (slow pace early).

The speed and gallop they go on the day is what matters and is what may tip the scales to one horse or another, if they are of similar ability.

The supreme is often ran at a really good lick from the off due to the adrenalin involved. So stamina is often very useful indeed.

Jockeys are often more settled the day after, and conscious of conserving energy for the longer trip.
 
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