Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett - Novice Hurdles 2021

[fatherjohn]

see the bookies are starting to cut him already...priced up like he can't lose. going to take the 25s now otherwise I'll be kicking myself after waiting 2 years for it!

 

[Willdunn99]

Malone Road declared with Keith onboard. Great to see him back

Got to be worth getting a point or two on before he runs tomorrow ? I backed last year and was obviously disappointed with the injuries but you can get 28/1 with boost at paddy power at the minute which is over generous in my opinion. If he’s as good as Gordon thinks he’s not going to be that price come the end of tomorrow !

 

[taylorch1990]

I've had a small play on him for the supreme but also the Champion hurdle 66-1 with 365. Missed a year and with Cheveley having a few high profile novice hurdles could they be tempted to aim for the championship race.

 

[Kevloaf]

I've had a small play on him for the supreme but also the Champion hurdle 66-1 with 365. Missed a year and with Cheveley having a few high profile novice hurdles could they be tempted to aim for the championship race.

No precedent for them doing that is there?

They'd be more likely to go for the Ballymore, at 33/1 which seems to be being missed on here.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

No precedent for them doing that is there?

They'd be more likely to go for the Ballymore, at 33/1 which seems to be being missed on here.

What was the consensus a year or so back, weren’t we generally agreed on Supreme ?
Presumably we all had Envoi Allen in for the Ballymore though and without that as a distraction this time round they’ll consider both no doubt...

 

[Kevloaf]

What was the consensus a year or so back, weren’t we generally agreed on Supreme ?
Presumably we all had Envoi Allen in for the Ballymore though and without that as a distraction this time round they’ll consider both no doubt...

I think so, but 2 years on, will be different physically.

If the plan is for people to back him and use cashout, they will have to invest in Supreme and Ballymore in my opinion.

Backing Malone Road for the Champion Hurdle is bananas in my opinion.

 

[Lobos]

I have a problem backing Malone Road for either the Supreme or the Ballymore as stats say 7 year olds don't win them. I too think that with both Ferney Hollow and Ballyadam to play with in the Novice races, Cheveley Park might just throw MR at the Churdle should he come back guns firing. He's been back in since the spring so he will be fit and well schooled and they have adequate time to give him a few hurdle races between now and March. It'll be interesting what they say should his comeback go to plan.

 

[Kevloaf]

I have a problem backing Malone Road for either the Supreme or the Ballymore as stats say 7 year olds don't win them. I too think that with both Ferney Hollow and Ballyadam to play with in the Novice races, Cheveley Park might just throw MR at the Churdle should he come back guns firing. He's been back in since the spring so he will be fit and well schooled and they have adequate time to give him a few hurdle races between now and March. It'll be interesting what they say should his comeback go to plan.

How stupid would they have to be to think a 7 y/o wasn't good enough to win a Novice race but could win a Champion Hurdle?


Also, having two 'other' novice hurdle prospects does NOT mean they'll aim one at the Champion Hurdle. First of all, we don't know Ferny Hollow and Ballyadam (or Malone Road) will earn their spots at Cheltenham yet, it's August and none of them have been seen yet over a hurdle.... and secondly we have zero proof they'd "split them" in such a way?


Thinking about how Ferny Hollow and Ballyaday might affect Malone Road at this stage is premature isn't it?


The leap being made if freaking staggering. He's entered on a Monday in August at Ballinrobe, first run for 2 years, first time over hurdles, and people think he might be a Champion Hurdle horse?!?!



My mind is blown. 66/1 is absolutely abysmal odds for Malone Road to win the Champion Hurdle at this stage.

 

[Lobos]

How stupid would they have to be to think a 7 y/o wasn't good enough to win a Novice race but could win a Champion Hurdle?


Also, having two 'other' novice hurdle prospects does NOT mean they'll aim one at the Champion Hurdle. First of all, we don't know Ferny Hollow and Ballyadam (or Malone Road) will earn their spots at Cheltenham yet, it's August and none of them have been seen yet over a hurdle.... and secondly we have zero proof they'd "split them" in such a way?


Thinking about how Ferny Hollow and Ballyaday might affect Malone Road at this stage is premature isn't it?


The leap being made if freaking staggering. He's entered on a Monday in August at Ballinrobe, first run for 2 years, first time over hurdles, and people think he might be a Champion Hurdle horse?!?!



My mind is blown. 66/1 is absolutely abysmal odds for Malone Road to win the Champion Hurdle at this stage.

Your first bit just doesn't makes sense at all. 7 year olds are very rarely entered in Supreme/Ballymore and when they are they don't win. Having been off the course for 2 years he's playing catch up and if he comes back firing then they may just throw him at the big one. If he waits a further season he'll be 8 going into a Churdle and it's rare for a first time winner at that age. Every horse has to start somewhere and ultimately make that leap. The winner 2 years ago was a novice and came from nowhere. If MR won the Supreme this year, for which he was a hot fav, then we'd all be talking him up for next year's Churdle. Yes, it's a shot in the dark but one well worth talking a risk with at 66/1 whatever happens. I can guarantee his price won't be that should he win impressively tomorrow.

 

[Kevloaf]

Your first bit just doesn't makes sense at all. 7 year olds are very rarely entered in Supreme/Ballymore and when they are they don't win. Having been off the course for 2 years he's playing catch up and if he comes back firing then they may just throw him at the big one. If he waits a further season he'll be 8 going into a Churdle and it's rare for a first time winner at that age. Every horse has to start somewhere and ultimately make that leap. The winner 2 years ago was a novice and came from nowhere. If MR won the Supreme this year, for which he was a hot fav, then we'd all be talking him up for next year's Churdle. Yes, it's a shot in the dark but one well worth talking a risk with at 66/1 whatever happens. I can guarantee his price won't be that should he win impressively tomorrow.

It doesn't make sense at all? :highly_amused: - So you cannot understand the point I am making?



"7 year olds are very rarely entered in Supreme/Ballymore and when they are they don't win"

You must be able to fathom the reason as to WHY 7 year olds don't enter the Supreme/Ballymore that often... it's because it is RARE for them to still be novices at that stage...

What you've done then, foolishly, is assume that Malone Road has the same profile as ALL OF THE 7 YEAR OLDS that have ever been in a Champion Hurdle.



Ask yourself this, please.... how many 7 year old NOVICES have been in a Champion Hurdle, and what is there record?



Also "The winner 2 years ago was a novice and came from nowhere."

No he wasn't?! That was Buveur D'air - he competed in the Supreme... and Espoir D'allen wasn't a novice either. It's nothing like Malone Road. That is absolute bollocks?

 

[Kevloaf]

and I didn't even get to this part...........

If MR won the Supreme this year, for which he was a hot fav, then we'd all be talking him up for next year's Churdle. Yes, it's a shot in the dark but one well worth talking a risk with at 66/1 whatever happens. I can guarantee his price won't be that should he win impressively tomorrow.

If MR won the Supreme this year, for which he was a hot fav,

"Hot fav" hahahahaha, he was a BUMPER winner in November..... there is no way you can have that as 'hot favourite' for a Supreme you absolutle lunatic! :highly_amused: He hadn't jumped a hurdle ffs. What absolute drivel.


....and I cannot explain how annoying the "IF" arguement is. "If" he won the Supreme, we'd have been talking him up? Fuck me, that is your defence for him being a good bet having never jumped a hurdle at 66/1?

How many horses could you say that about. If Frankel comes out of retirement and wins the Supreme he'll be favourite for next years Champion Hurdle? If Lobos was a horse and won 10 races in a row, he'd be a great bet at 66/1? If Uncle Henry beats Malone Road tomorrow, he's a good bet at 66/1 as he's just beaten a CH contender? Both nonsense. I hope you can understand what I'm saying but I fear not.



It is ridiculous to say "if a horse won the Supreme we'd fancy him", well of course we would... the fact is he DIDN'T win the Supreme.... he never even jumped a twatting hurdle.

 

[Lobos]

It doesn't make sense at all? :highly_amused: - So you cannot understand the point I am making?



"7 year olds are very rarely entered in Supreme/Ballymore and when they are they don't win"

You must be able to fathom the reason as to WHY 7 year olds don't enter the Supreme/Ballymore that often... it's because it is RARE for them to still be novices at that stage...

What you've done then, foolishly, is assume that Malone Road has the same profile as ALL OF THE 7 YEAR OLDS that have ever been in a Champion Hurdle.



Ask yourself this, please.... how many 7 year old NOVICES have been in a Champion Hurdle, and what is there record?



Also "The winner 2 years ago was a novice and came from nowhere."

No he wasn't?! That was Buveur D'air - he competed in the Supreme... and Espoir D'allen wasn't a novice either. It's nothing like Malone Road. That is absolute bollocks?

The winner 2 festivals ago came from nowhere was my point and you knew that. E Dallen could not be talked of as a Churdle horse at the beginning of that season. Malone Road WAS a very strong fav for the Supreme. Most of us on here had him in doubles with Envoi. He is very well thought of and I think they may well skip Supreme for the Churdle if he shows us to be a top novice especially him being 7. It's not that hard to get your head round is it Kev? You are kicking off as if no Novice Hurdler has ever been aimed at the Churdle??!! It has been done several times before you know.......and they have won it as well !

 

[Kevloaf]

The winner 2 festivals ago came from nowhere was my point and you knew that. E Dallen could not be talked of as a Churdle horse at the beginning of that season. Malone Road WAS a very strong fav for the Supreme. Most of us on here had him in doubles with Envoi. He is very well thought of and I think they may well skip Supreme for the Churdle if he shows us to be a top novice especially him being 7. It's not that hard to get your head round is it Kev? You are kicking off as if no Novice Hurdler has ever been aimed at the Churdle??!! It has been done several times before you know.......and they have won it as well !

Espoir D'Allen didn't have the choice of going to the Supreme/Ballymore though did he, so how is that relevant? :highly_amused:

Malone Road wasn't a "very strong" fav for the Supreme - he was declared "out" on the 17th November. I have it clear as day in my notes. That is 2 months into the season....and he hadn't had a debut hurdles run yet? You're talking bollocks. :stupid:

If he shows to be a "top novice" you think they'll avoid the novice route...because he is 7? :dejection:

Gordon Elliott has been unequivocal in his training career in saying he will put his horses in the races that are easiest to win. The only example I can think of, was Apple's Jade. With that being the case, what evidence do you have that Cheveley Park would do that? It's a theory, that's all it is, and at 66/1 that does not make your theory good value.

 

[Lobos]

Espoir D'Allen didn't have the choice of going to the Supreme/Ballymore though did he, so how is that relevant? :highly_amused:

Malone Road wasn't a "very strong" fav for the Supreme - he was declared "out" on the 17th November. I have it clear as day in my notes. That is 2 months into the season....and he hadn't had a debut hurdles run yet? You're talking bollocks. :stupid:

If he shows to be a "top novice" you think they'll avoid the novice route...because he is 7? :dejection:

Gordon Elliott has been unequivocal in his training career in saying he will put his horses in the races that are easiest to win. The only example I can think of, was Apple's Jade. With that being the case, what evidence do you have that Cheveley Park would do that? It's a theory, that's all it is, and at 66/1 that does not make your theory good value.

We'll see. If he wins like a goodun tomorrow my theory may be down to 33/1 which WILL make the 66/1 look good value. Yeah it's a long shot but my crystal ball says it's not impossible. Nothing ventured , nothing gained.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Personally I think he’ll go P P and P then win the County by 27l carrying 10st 3lb...

 

[Kevloaf]

Personally I think he’ll go P P and P then win the County by 27l carrying 10st 3lb...

:highly_amused:

"If".



To be fair, at 66/1 "if" Labaik gets new owners, gets entered, doesn't plant at the start, bolts up looking like a good'un, gets cut to 33/1 - he might be good value too.

Obviously his target is clearer too, as he's not a novice.

 

[Lobos]

:highly_amused:

"If".



To be fair, at 66/1 "if" Labaik gets new owners, gets entered, doesn't plant at the start, bolts up looking like a good'un, gets cut to 33/1 - he might be good value too.

Obviously his target is clearer too, as he's not a novice.

'if'

If you and I don't get some shuteye soon we'll both bloody miss Malone Roads comeback !

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Ha - an entertaining early morning read that lads. Cheers :highly_amused:

 

[Middle_Of_March]

My opinion on the horse as a betting prospect is that he’d probably go Supreme I’d have thought. Albeit he is older so may have slightly less pace than before his injuries. He’s a certainty to shorten when he wins (assuming he does) though and with his high reputation in the yard, I too want him on side.

16/1 with Paddy power for any race seems perfect for this mornings free bet. 18s with the boost in fact. That’ll do me fine.

 

[Spectre]

The 7 year olds you see in the Supreme and Ballymore are usually late developers for owners that want a runner, rather than genuine contenders. In the case of Malone Road he’s missed a season, but if there are no lingering effects it would be madness to discount him.

Captain Cee Bee won the Supreme in recent seasons as a seven year old. Like a Butterfly was eight. And French Holly won the Ballymore at seven. So to say seven year olds don’t win either race is untrue. The just don’t win them very often because genuine contenders are thin on the ground.