Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett - Novice Hurdles 2021

[Kevloaf]

Malone Road entered up. Monday at Ballinrobe

Makes all, slashed for the Supreme despite winning at 1/2?

So in to the book he goes :highly_amused:

 

[Lobos]

I wonder if we are likely to see horses that are coming back from a lay off/injury running over summer given the season was cut so short because of covid.

I know all the big guns will be out to grass but it would make sense if they are fit again to get a run or 2 into them? Give them a break and start again for winter/spring.

Definitely. Point to point season starts earlier this year now as well. It's going to be a very interesting season!!

 

[OscarWhisky]

Malone Road entered up. Monday at Ballinrobe

Irrespective of whether he runs or not then for supporters that can only be seen as a positive I’d have thought.

 

[Spectre]

Makes all, slashed for the Supreme despite winning at 1/2?

So in to the book he goes :highly_amused:

Gordon loves his stats and trends, and with that in mind the bet is the Ballymore not the Supreme. The 7 year old Supreme stat is one that he'll be very mindful of. I've just added him with Paddy Power 1 point ew with cashout.

 

[Kevloaf]

Gordon loves his stats and trends, and with that in mind the bet is the Ballymore not the Supreme. The 7 year old Supreme stat is one that he'll be very mindful of. I've just added him with Paddy Power 1 point ew with cashout.

#424

Four hours ahead of you

 

[Spectre]

#424

Four hours ahead of you

Busy day. I haven't got to diaries yet. That's next! :highly_amused:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

The more I look at Ferny Hollow the more I think he is a bad bet in any novice hurdle market.

Willies previous Champion Bumper winners have been scattered all over the place the following season, and with the exception of Champagne Fever there haven't been many, where Willie's best Champion Bumper horse have then performed well over hurdles the following season, to back this up here is the small list of those winners:

Wither Or Which ('96 Bumper winner) - 5th of 20 in the Supreme the following season (33 length defeat)

Florida Pearl ('97 Bumper winner) - RSA Winner the following season

Alexander Banquet ('98 Bumper winner) - 7th of 18 in the Ballymore the following season (19 length defeat)

Joe Cullen ('00 Bumper winner) - Did not run the next season at the festival but was then well beaten in the County Hurdle the next two seasons.

Missed That ('05 Bumper winner) - 6th of 14 in the Arkle the following season (17 1/2 length defeat)

Cousin Vinny ('08 Bumper winner) - 5th of 20 in the Supreme the following season ( 4 3/4 length defeat)

Champagne Fever ('12 Bumper winner) - 1st of 12 in the Supreme (1/2 length winner)

Briar Hill ('13 Bumper winner) - Fell the following season in the Albert Bartlett

Relegate ('18 Bumper winner) - Did not turn up the following season but was 5th of 24 in the Pertemps this season (8 3/4 length defeat)

Now, looking back at that list, not only is it not a given for Ferny Hollow to perform well the following festival, it could literally be any race they decide to go for, which makes his price in the Supreme quite laughable right now. This, from someone who has actually recently got him backed :dejection::highly_amused:

I've made points in previous years about the previous years bumper winners/runners in Supreme, and not getting carried away yet found myself doing exactly that :hopelessness:. I like to think this is because there was a lack of action (due to Covid) and any further clues towards next season were unavailable as we missed the Aintree and Punchestown festivals. But now I feel a little stupid for it, especially as I'm unable to cash out :highly_amused:

I hope I'm wrong (as know a few on here like FH), or one of my better bets does the business come race day (still over 7 months away :highly_amused: ) but I would be surprised if I am on this occasion, after taking a deeper look into things.

Even looking back at Willies previous Supreme winners or main hopes (by market price and performance), the majority in recent years have come from France (Vautour, Douvan, Min, Melon & Klassical Dream), and after Getabird & Asterion Forlonge's (both from the PTP sphere) defeats in recent seasons in the Supreme, I wouldn't be surprised should he revert back to that process again next season, with the likes of Fly Smart, Feu Du Bresil, Figaroc, and more recently Gaillard Du Mesnil in his ranks.

 

[Lobos]

The more I look at Ferny Hollow the more I think he is a bad bet in any novice hurdle market.

Willies previous Champion Bumper winners have been scattered all over the place the following season, and with the exception of Champagne Fever there haven't been many, where Willie's best Champion Bumper horse have then performed well over hurdles the following season, to back this up here is the small list of those winners:

Wither Or Which ('96 Bumper winner) - 5th of 20 in the Supreme the following season (33 length defeat)

Florida Pearl ('97 Bumper winner) - RSA Winner the following season

Alexander Banquet ('98 Bumper winner) - 7th of 18 in the Ballymore the following season (19 length defeat)

Joe Cullen ('00 Bumper winner) - Did not run the next season at the festival but was then well beaten in the County Hurdle the next two seasons.

Missed That ('05 Bumper winner) - 6th of 14 in the Arkle the following season (17 1/2 length defeat)

Cousin Vinny ('08 Bumper winner) - 5th of 20 in the Supreme the following season ( 4 3/4 length defeat)

Champagne Fever ('12 Bumper winner) - 1st of 12 in the Supreme (1/2 length winner)

Briar Hill ('13 Bumper winner) - Fell the following season in the Albert Bartlett

Relegate ('18 Bumper winner) - Did not turn up the following season but was 5th of 24 in the Pertemps this season (8 3/4 length defeat)

Now, looking back at that list, not only is it not a given for Ferny Hollow to perform well the following festival, it could literally be any race they decide to go for, which makes his price in the Supreme quite laughable right now. This, from someone who has actually recently got him backed :dejection::highly_amused:

I've made points in previous years about the previous years bumper winners/runners in Supreme, and not getting carried away yet found myself doing exactly that :hopelessness:. I like to think this is because there was a lack of action (due to Covid) and any further clues towards next season were unavailable as we missed the Aintree and Punchestown festivals. But now I feel a little stupid for it, especially as I'm unable to cash out :highly_amused:

I hope I'm wrong (as know a few on here like FH), or one of my better bets does the business come race day (still over 7 months away :highly_amused: ) but I would be surprised if I am on this occasion, after taking a deeper look into things.

Even looking back at Willies previous Supreme winners or main hopes (by market price and performance), the majority in recent years have come from France (Vautour, Douvan, Min, Melon), and after Getabird & Asterion Forlonge's (both from the PTP sphere) defeats in recent seasons in the Supreme, I wouldn't be surprised should he revert back to that process again next season, with the likes of Fly Smart, Feu Du Bresil, Figaroc, and more recently Gaillard Du Mesnil in his ranks.

Interesting that two of his winners, Florida Pearl and Missed That, went straight over fences the following season. Both those had PTP experience like Appreciate It..Adds to my theory that Appreciate It will go Chasing this season coming. Another 3 of his above winners, Ferney Hollow, Champagne Fever and Briar Hill also had PTP experience and CF and BH went hurdling the following season but they won the Bumper as 5yo's. Appreciate It and Missed That both won as 6yo's. Just putting it out there to keep those coggs turning.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Interesting that two of his winners went straight over fences the following season. Adds to my theory that Appreciate It will go Chasing this season coming.

Haha as I was writing Florida Pearl I said to myself, Lobos will jump in at that point :highly_amused:

 

[Spectre]

I think that's 100% right CoD. There's nothing wrong with having Ferny Hollow onside, it's the cashout bit that's the problem.

I also agree that he may well go up in trip, and it'll be two or three of the 'frenchies' that represent Willie in the Supreme.

Whether I agree or not though, the work you've put in making your case is both excellent and compelling.

 

[BigChaang]

I think the fact that Ferny hollow won so well in the 'E.A' colours.
mean's he was alway's going to be high on people's list's for the Nov hurdle's.
So not surprised the price is shorter than the others .
But as you point out C o D , Not garanteed to be a good thing.
Generally speaking I'm happy to take a punt on a few at decent prices .
for the Nov races , mostly with cashout . Like you though , not on F.H

 

[nortonscoin200]

Reason I weighed in with Ferny Hollow for the Supreme is that he showed such a devastating turn of foot in the bumper.

Reckon they've realised he is better suited to being held up - and with that finishing pace I would have thought they will conclude that the shorter trip will play to his strengths.

Difficult to argue with CoD's excellent piece but FH doesn't strike me as the typical bumper horse who will need to be upped in trip.

 

[Lobos]

Reason I weighed in with Ferny Hollow for the Supreme is that he showed such a devastating turn of foot in the bumper.

Reckon they've realised he is better suited to being held - and with that finishing pace I would have thought they will conclude that the shorter trip will play to his strengths.

Difficult to argue with CoD's excellent piece but FH doesn't strike me as the typical bumper horse who will need to be upped in trip.

Here, here. Exactly my thoughts. Hold up tactics worked to perfection in March. Made Appreciate It look like a chaser.

 

[Quevega]

Looking at it another way.
Of the three bumper winners to go on and contest the supreme
He’s had one winner and 2 5th places.

CODs piece (word up)
Says more about the difficulty in both getting to the festival again and in the right race for your bets

 

[Quevega]

I think the going straight over fences is a possibility for certain types and ages for Willie
But less likely these days given the strength of his stable and shear numbers he has at his disposal

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Looking at it another way.
Of the three bumper winners to go on and contest the supreme
He’s had one winner and 2 5th places.

CODs piece (word up)
Says more about the difficulty in both getting to the festival again and in the right race for your bets

Quite right Q.

Although I name checked the Supreme, I probably should have noted the Ballymore price too, as he is top of the tree for that one also, and the price is just as poor.

I think the going straight over fences is a possibility for certain types and ages for Willie
But less likely these days given the strength of his stable and shear numbers he has at his disposal

Yeah, I would imagine this would be the case nowadays too.

 

[Kevloaf]

One of the only stones there was to throw at Envoi Allen last season was the poor record of Champion Bumper winners at the following years festival.

For me, he proved to be an exception and I'd be quite happy in assuming the Cheltenham Bumper winner isn't the first place to go when looking for the following years Novice Hurdle races.

Learnt by lesson with Dunguib and Cue Card in the first two festivals I remember (which lead to me not having Champagne Fever funnily enough a couple of years later)


It's almost impossible to avoid a horse like Ferny Hollow though, being the Champion Bumper winner means we can say we know he has a certain level of ability to be in the mix, and we know he acts at the track.... compared to other novices (like "the Frenchies") it's not hard to see WHY people do latch on and get carried away. It's harder to knock the chance than make the case!

I find that even though I feel I know he won't win it, not having him covered at some point would be a mistake... so I can't blame anyone who does like him.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

With so many races missed at the end of the season, a shed load of bumper horses either got None or One run, and we were denied to see bumper form grow and play out in a number of Listed & Graded races at Aintree, Fairyhouse, Punchestown Etc.

I’d be expecting a more than usual number of unknowns to grace the Novice Hurdles Festival Betting by Christmas, so I’m keeping most of my powder dry for horses actually jumping hurdles, to make any proper assessment.

Mind you in the Mares Novice BFR/PP have hacked Princess Zoe’s price again today, now clear shortest at 12/1. :hopelessness::hopelessness:

 

[Lobos]

With so many races missed at the end of the season, a shed load of bumper horses either got None or One run, and we were denied to see bumper form grow and play out in a number of Listed & Graded races at Aintree, Fairyhouse, Punchestown Etc.

I’d be expecting a more than usual number of unknowns to grace the Novice Hurdles Festival Betting by Christmas, so I’m keeping most of my powder dry for horses actually jumping hurdles, to make any proper assessment.

Mind you in the Mares Novice BFR/PP have hacked Princess Zoe’s price again today, now clear shortest at 12/1. :hopelessness::hopelessness:

That is mental. PZ clear 3rd fav now with them. Others go 25/1. No way PP have taken that much money on her. It's a joke. Can't take any of these Covid bookie prices seriously now.

 

[Run4Home]

Malone Road declared with Keith onboard. Great to see him back