This has been bugging me all week but I've been reluctant to post because of its "wise after the event" nature.
It's about some unaccountable (to my mind) high prices at a time in the season when there isn't a lot of form to go on in the early bumpers and maiden/novice hurdles
If a horse is odds on that means it's supposed to have a very good chance of winning and if it's a three figure price that means there's supposed to be a very good chance it will end up way down the field.
This Tuesday 26 Oct
13.20 Chepstow 2.5m maiden hurdle Welsby 2nd to odds on Mr Glass at 125/1
Afaik you can't get historic race cards with Racing Post but you can with the Sporting Life by simply typing in the date in the right place on the url line
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...gbb-race-div-1
The only horses who had winning racecourse form were Mr Glass and Welsby. Now Welsby had won a 4 runner ?3k Aintree bumper back in 2017
"
tracked leader, pushed along into lead 2f out, going clear when reminder entering final furlong, pushed out, comfortably" at evens when trained by Hendo
The horse it beat into 2nd that day was McCain's Henry's Joy who went on to be rated as high as 122 over hurdles and once won a ?19k race
Transferred cheaply to Deborah Faulkner it wasn't seen again until finishing down the field in a ?5k 2m novices hurdle at Chepstow earlier this month. Ok the horse must have had some issues to keep it off the course for so long but after such a long lay off a quiet run was to be expected first time. It was 150/1 that day.
But the form of that 2017 bumper win put Welsby in with a good chance in the 26 Oct race (imo) which apart from the favourite it was a pretty weak race.
(Oh it's a Hendo reject so no good)
18 minutes later
13.38 Bangor 2m1f novices hurdle Heritier 3rd 150/1 to Go Dante at 11/10
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...gbb-race-div-1
Now there was more substantive form in this race but the others with winning form (or good placed form) were all at shorter prices. Heritier had finished last in a novice hurdle earlier this month won by Geromino after being transferred from France where it had won a ?7K bumper on g/s and 2nd in another ?7k bumper on VSft. Two of the others with winning form were at 11/1. The two French race descriptions were:
Dwelt as stalls opened, soon recovered to race prominently, led after 3f, pushed along 3f out, ridden and extended lead over 1f out, stayed on strongly
Led after 1f, 3l clear at halfway, shaken up 3f out, driven 2f out, reduced advantage over 1f out, headed final 175yds and no extra
(Oh it's French so no good)
Ok there were some doubts about these horses but I don't think there was enough certainty about that doubt to think they had no chance in these quite ordinary early NH season proper novice/maiden hurdles.