Steve Mellish on RTV

[Carnage at Taunton]

Mellish was just being a grump.
He should present his show from a dustbin.

3 pages of mainly moaning about the good old days.
Stuff changes. You adapt or go golfing on a Saturday.

I'd rather take a shorter price and press a button a few seconds after a race, than get in the car to go to a shop full of Steve Mellish types spitting at the screen and Doris behind the counter.
Then find out the price has gone by the time I got there.
And if I want a bet I not only have to write it out myself, have to pay tax on it.
Fuck that.

Well whatever happens Q, i will still watch the horses and enjoy the sport i love. If i can have an occasional bet then great.
Its always been more of a hobby to me anyway.
Although obviously a more enjoyable hobby when making money.:biggrin-new:

 

[Rooster Booster]

There are blatantly obvious reasons why things move quicker these days and bookies liabilities grow faster or are calculated quicker.
The days of Yellow Sam are long gone. The systems in place to spot money coming in are too sophisticated.

Absolutely and the more sophisticated everything gets the smaller the pool of people that can make it work. I will keep trying until it becomes impossible and will likely keep trying g after that but that doesn’t preclude me from having empathy with folks that either lack the will or opportunity to do so.

 

[nortonscoin200]

The points being made about account closures and the quick-fire shortening of prices by the bookies are all valid - and a pain in the butt.

But in other ways we punters have never had it so good.

Firstly, we can now watch replays of every single race in Britain, Ireland and France at no cost - and with a bit of effort we can find replays of many ptps as well.

Last season that ability to decide with our own eyes how good the likes of Bob and Sir Gerhard were going to be enabled many fat jockeys to get on at 33-1 and 25-1 very early doors and the bookies got a caning.

This season we could watch Fil Dor and Vauban to name just two who made debuts in France that we could scrutinise at our leisure and get on at fancy prices if we so wished.

Secondly, the benefits of cash-out provide a huge advantage for people who have it. I'm not a book builder but I assume it would make that strategy a lot less profitable without cash-out.

But there's a danger we take cash-out for granted and become a little lazy.

Thirdly, it's always possible to fall back on the exchange if the bookies aren't giving decent odds.

I'm just an old fashioned pick-a-horse-in-each-race punter at heart - I don't do anything remotely complex and assume exchange betting probably requires a different strategy to the one employed by most FJs. I only dabble with it for racing - great for golf and tennis though.

But in every walk of life when it comes to making money you can't afford to stand still and assume the cash will flow in for ever. You have to be able to adapt to change.

And that goes for us lot - if we want to continue playing this game, we just have to find a way to make it work.

I remember about 18 months ago someone on the forum - it may have been Saxon Warrior - looked at the bookies odds in about September or October and compared their lists with the horses who actually won at the following Festival.

Very few were shorties, if I remember right.

And you can be sure there are probably more than a few winners at this year's Festival still lurking among the 33-1 and upwards rags.

PS: If someone could sort me out on the Paddy Power Plate I'd be very grateful. I realise it's going to be an Irish novice but Noble Yeats, Ciel De Neige and Buddy Rich don't really do it for me. Or do they? I'm going round in ever decreasing circles.

 

[Hurricane fly]

Something I've wondered about account closures is, if I have my 365 account closed can you not contact them and ask them to remove all information relating to you under GDPR?

Wait a month or so and create a new one? If they are abiding by the law there should be no record of you and you can have a fresh account h til you win so much they do it again?


Ive only been doing Antepost for 3 years and I feel like it's more open than ever. Cashout should be considered a luxury, and it makes me laugh when I see people on social media moaning about bet365 offering NRNB and BOG, has such a concession ever been available?

Yes they are quick to cut prices, but how often are the novice hurdles won by such margins? Appreciate It and Bob O absolutely smashed the fields, Bob was still 4/1 at the outset and it's considered the bookies took a hiding so I think it's natural that they would defensive this year.

 

[Hurricane fly]

finally the odds on Pied Piper dropping from 12 or 14/1 to 5/2 fav after beating basically rubbish juvi's in England ,

It seems to be forgotten he has also beaten everyone's shrewd tip Vauban fair and square.

He also hasn't just beaten the English he's cruised it. What price do you expect him to be? Think there is sour grapes from people who miss a price/get the race wrong. And I say that as a Boodles backer

 

[Many Clouds]

Something I've wondered about account closures is, if I have my 365 account closed can you not contact them and ask them to remove all information relating to you under GDPR?

Wait a month or so and create a new one? If they are abiding by the law there should be no record of you and you can have a fresh account h til you win so much they do it again?


Ive only been doing Antepost for 3 years and I feel like it's more open than ever. Cashout should be considered a luxury, and it makes me laugh when I see people on social media moaning about bet365 offering NRNB and BOG, has such a concession ever been available?

Yes they are quick to cut prices, but how often are the novice hurdles won by such margins? Appreciate It and Bob O absolutely smashed the fields, Bob was still 4/1 at the outset and it's considered the bookies took a hiding so I think it's natural that they would defensive this year.

A mate of mine mentioned this a while back about the GDPR thing, I'm not sure if he actually went ahead with it though and I totally forgot about it until you mentioned it. The fines for breaking the rules are ridiculous these days, I work in the financial sector and remember it changing a few years ago and the company I work for were pushing it so hard on everyone how important it was. Surely if you ask for data to be wiped then they have to do it or they are breaking the law and it's not worth them getting a hefty fine for the sake of a few people who even consider going down this route.

I think the lad I spoke to about it had a ready made letter he got hold of from someone who had apparently managed to do it. Can't remember if he sent me or not but I'll see if I can get hold of it to have a look.

 

[charlie]

Someone always pops up around the end of Jan/Feb with ante post is dead chat. There might be some truth in that for those starting now, but then why the hell would anyone choose to start now? We only really have the DRF left and know plenty will go straight from Xmas to Cheltenham, so knocking ante post 7 weeks out when we have a handle on most markets and generally guages on ability seems futile. Ante post is beatable but the key is timing. From bets placed in April through to bets placed now. Being on here regularly has massive advantages IMO and you sort of need to be obsessive to make money ante post in this game IMO. Prices this time of year can go in an instant. Vauban for example was 20/1 to win at DRF and Cheltenham and that’s now 6/1 without him setting foot on a racecourse (favourable events, sure). Thank you Eggs, but it’s the same principle throughout the year. We discuss every race and length and probably make more informed betting decisions throughout the year than the vast majority of punters out there.

 

[jono]

...Ante post is beatable but the key is timing. From bets placed in April through to bets placed now. Being on here regularly has massive advantages IMO and you sort of need to be obsessive to make money ante post in this game IMO...

Spot on.
It's not easy. But put the time into it and you get plenty back.
And the rewards, as many on here have shown, especially last year where a few won huge amounts can be superb.

 

[Rooster Booster]

Someone always pops up around the end of Jan/Feb with ante post is dead chat. There might be some truth in that for those starting now, but then why the hell would anyone choose to start now? We only really have the DRF left and know plenty will go straight from Xmas to Cheltenham, so knocking ante post 7 weeks out when we have a handle on most markets and generally guages on ability seems futile. Ante post is beatable but the key is timing. From bets placed in April through to bets placed now. Being on here regularly has massive advantages IMO and you sort of need to be obsessive to make money ante post in this game IMO. Prices this time of year can go in an instant. Vauban for example was 20/1 to win at DRF and Cheltenham and that’s now 6/1 without him setting foot on a racecourse (favourable events, sure). Thank you Eggs, but it’s the same principle throughout the year. We discuss every race and length and probably make more informed betting decisions throughout the year than the vast majority of punters out there.

Exactly Charlie you need to be obsessive...perhaps that’s the point some are making which at least deserves to be listened to as a large number of ante post punters do not have the means or opportunity to be obsessive. Yes many on here every day are obsessed me included and thoroughly deserve their success (not me included) but I think the point being made is a broader one and way beyond the confines of this forum and the ‘obsessed’. I would be amazed if daily users on here believed AP was dying but I’m not sure we are the most impartial population to survey on the subject.

it would be good to hear from those less obsessed and get their perspective.

 

[Irish Rugby]

I think here, FJ that is, suits both types. Those who want to make a book on each race, I don't, and those who are just honing in on a very small number of horses for each race, who look to get some early value and the all important life changing multiple. Or just to add further enjoyment to the best 4 days racing, each year.

The debate and analysis discussed here, suit both types.

This is my first full year on year. It's been a real pleasure following the weekly development of the season so far.
​​​​​

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Someone always pops up around the end of Jan/Feb with ante post is dead chat. There might be some truth in that for those starting now, but then why the hell would anyone choose to start now? We only really have the DRF left and know plenty will go straight from Xmas to Cheltenham, so knocking ante post 7 weeks out when we have a handle on most markets and generally guages on ability seems futile. Ante post is beatable but the key is timing. From bets placed in April through to bets placed now. Being on here regularly has massive advantages IMO and you sort of need to be obsessive to make money ante post in this game IMO. Prices this time of year can go in an instant. Vauban for example was 20/1 to win at DRF and Cheltenham and that’s now 6/1 without him setting foot on a racecourse (favourable events, sure). Thank you Eggs, but it’s the same principle throughout the year. We discuss every race and length and probably make more informed betting decisions throughout the year than the vast majority of punters out there.

I think the highly touted Vauban is a very good example. He's ran once over hurdles and was beaten by PP. In the aftermath of the race he was generally available at 20/1 for the Triumph, someone even pushed him out to 25/1. A month later, and without running again, he's 3rd favourite at 6/1 (generally 9/2 & 4/1). There was plenty of opportunity to take the 25/1 or 20/1 as it hung around for a week or so, I think. PP was also available at 14/1 and 16/1 for a good while afterwards too.

It's only on example but I think that just highlights that opportunities are there.

 

[That Horse]

A mate of mine mentioned this a while back about the GDPR thing, I'm not sure if he actually went ahead with it though and I totally forgot about it until you mentioned it. The fines for breaking the rules are ridiculous these days, I work in the financial sector and remember it changing a few years ago and the company I work for were pushing it so hard on everyone how important it was. Surely if you ask for data to be wiped then they have to do it or they are breaking the law and it's not worth them getting a hefty fine for the sake of a few people who even consider going down this route.

I think the lad I spoke to about it had a ready made letter he got hold of from someone who had apparently managed to do it. Can't remember if he sent me or not but I'll see if I can get hold of it to have a look.

Just had a look on Betfair's account closure page. After Cheltenham, I will probably ask them for an account closure as they've restricted me in 2021 and not really worthwhile me betting with them anymore.

They say a customer can ask for a Deletion should they no longer wish to bet with Betfair and want their data erased in line with GDPR. They do advise that this right is not absolute, and they may retain data after account closure where legally obliged to do so. I suppose it is worth checking at the time if anyone attempts to close an account this way, to see if the bookie highlights the reason why they would retain data.

 

[Quevega]

I remember a couple of years back - Paul Kealy had a rant about NRNB markets.
I really like Paul and he has a remarkably similar way of looking at racing and life as me.
Fortunately I'm miles more handsome and half the size. Although I bet the fat bastard outlives me.

Now I can see the point to a certain extent in the general markets, but the Handicaps are really good for NRNB.

We also had a couple on here saying they'd not spotted anything the other day (even the great Saxon Warrior ), and this will almost certainly be because of the way their mind works and how they approach stuff.

But I had a look back on my diary for last year where I did a summary after the event.

I placed 55 Bets on the Handicaps using NRNB markets - that ended up running.

Of these bets - only 5 failed to beat SP - So 90% did.

Of these bets - 27 of them at least halved in price - Just under 50%

And from 137pts staked I returned 263. Almost doubled stake.

This includes around half dozen bets I did antepost, but couldn't be arsed to add them up without.

So anyone thinking that there isn't value antepost or NRNB are talking through their arse.
Especially you Paul Kealy.

 

[Rooster Booster]

I remember a couple of years back - Paul Kealy had a rant about NRNB markets.
I really like Paul and he has a remarkably similar way of looking at racing and life as me.
Fortunately I'm miles more handsome and half the size. Although I bet the fat bastard outlives me.

Now I can see the point to a certain extent in the general markets, but the Handicaps are really good for NRNB.

We also had a couple on here saying they'd not spotted anything the other day (even the great Saxon Warrior ), and this will almost certainly be because of the way their mind works and how they approach stuff.

But I had a look back on my diary for last year where I did a summary after the event.

I placed 55 Bets on the Handicaps using NRNB markets - that ended up running.

Of these bets - only 5 failed to beat SP - So 90% did.

Of these bets - 27 of them at least halved in price - Just under 50%

And from 137pts staked I returned 263. Almost doubled stake.

This includes around half dozen bets I did antepost, but couldn't be arsed to add them up without.

So anyone thinking that there isn't value antepost or NRNB are talking through their arse.
Especially you Paul Kealy.

Be good to track that over time moving forward to see if there’s any change for the better or worse (as I’m sure you’ll live plenty long enough).

 

[Another Value Loser]

I think the highly touted Vauban is a very good example. He's ran once over hurdles and was beaten by PP. In the aftermath of the race he was generally available at 20/1 for the Triumph, someone even pushed him out to 25/1. A month later, and without running again, he's 3rd favourite at 6/1 (generally 9/2 & 4/1). There was plenty of opportunity to take the 25/1 or 20/1 as it hung around for a week or so, I think. PP was also available at 14/1 and 16/1 for a good while afterwards too.

It's only on example but I think that just highlights that opportunities are there.

Agree that's a good example FM. Edges will come and go but I think one angle that has been good this year is the overreaction from books following a loss/disappointing run. I think 365 have even pushed this further by pushing some prices out even more to reduce cashout values for punters already on.

Another example that springs to mind is TMSG getting pushed out to 20s following her first run of the season when she didn't appear to be fully wound up for it.

What is a bit of concern is how early you're needing to get on the "hype" horses this year before they've run. Facile Vega and Mercurey both spring to mind (Facile Vega perhaps a bit more justified as the "vibes" were really strong)

 

[Deleted member 4957]

maybe he is referring to the tight odds on a lot of races

i'm almost done with it all as well , i have very little in the way of online accounts left anymore , B365 closed me down this week which was my last decent account , can't get out any of those dubious punts , pretty sickening really, i know a few others feel the same way , i can't remember a year i don't have a proper bet in the Championship races,

i think Steve is pretty much spot on

I didn't see/hear the interview but it's clearly stirred up a response in here.

I'm similar to you TF, accounts have all but disappeared, I have a couple of racing friends whose accounts are being ruined this year by me, next year I think I'll just sit back and watch and pop to the shops very occasionally.

I don't disagree with the concept that ante post betting is hard/harder/dying etc, it is very different to what existed years ago but that I think is because you have the opportunity to trade a position via the exchanges and through cashout.
Exchanges don't mature until near raceday and this is when bookmakers can manage their liabilities, six months out they can't, so anyone wanting a hundred quid on a 33/1 Supreme shot is going to spook the bookmaker and therefore the market, this happened years ago too.

No question book building is a skill, perhaps if they removed cashout it might help bookmakers keep prices and take bets, I don't know.
But I do know many FJs would suffer if that were to happen.

What I don't get, and it rarely gets mentioned in here, is the book builders in here are clearly tying up funds for months at a time, how are those punters not being grabbed by the bookies compliance checks/teams and forced into a financial interrogation ?

We have a rule of not talking numbers in here but I have to break that rule to emphasise the story here:
I have what will become a legal battle with Betfred upcoming, their records only go back four years but they've confirmed my account has a profit of 27 grand and I have 7 grand of ante post bets (Cheltenham), so in effect 34 grand profit albeit with 7 grand reinvested.
They asked me to provide bank statements etc as part of a responsible gambling and proof of funds check, which if your account is in profit is completely nonsensical to me, I refused and pointed out that if my account was in profit is it not obvious where the funds are coming from that I subsequently deposit and there are obviously no affordability issues if I'm winning ! It was a painful exchange with Betfred compliance and customer services teams being completely devoid of common sense.
As a result of me rejecting this interrogation they have closed my account and said that any returns from my ante post bets will not be released until I comply with their checks, so I think I'll be getting lawyers onto it.

So, if bookies are demanding these checks are performed on winning accounts they surely have to be doing the same to losing accounts, and if so how are book builders avoiding this ?
Or are the book builders complying with these checks and suffering the extreme restrictions that are guaranteed to follow ?

Regulation, or bookmakers interpretation of regulation, is what's killing the industry...

 

[charlie]

Spot on.
It's not easy. But put the time into it and you get plenty back.
And the rewards, as many on here have shown, especially last year where a few won huge amounts can be superb.

Absolutely Jono. I think Willie, Gordon and Henry winning 50% or more races outside of the handicaps actually makes things slightly easier for those willing to surrender themselves to that reality. I think we have an edge on the FJF because we don't just debate individual horses ability, we go through entire stables day in day out and access form against historical patterns of behaviour to try and figure out pecking orders before they become well established. It really helps having a forum where people discuss literally everything. Breeding, sectionals, false markets with lots of likely non-runners, RPR analysis, etc, and when you combine this with everyone taking different approaches, you can collectively make really informed decisions quite early, which is the battle won when it comes to ante post punting.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I remember a couple of years back - Paul Kealy had a rant about NRNB markets.
I really like Paul and he has a remarkably similar way of looking at racing and life as me.
Fortunately I'm miles more handsome and half the size. Although I bet the fat bastard outlives me.

Now I can see the point to a certain extent in the general markets, but the Handicaps are really good for NRNB.

We also had a couple on here saying they'd not spotted anything the other day (even the great Saxon Warrior ), and this will almost certainly be because of the way their mind works and how they approach stuff.

But I had a look back on my diary for last year where I did a summary after the event.

I placed 55 Bets on the Handicaps using NRNB markets - that ended up running.

Of these bets - only 5 failed to beat SP - So 90% did.

Of these bets - 27 of them at least halved in price - Just under 50%

And from 137pts staked I returned 263. Almost doubled stake.

This includes around half dozen bets I did antepost, but couldn't be arsed to add them up without.

So anyone thinking that there isn't value antepost or NRNB are talking through their arse.
Especially you Paul Kealy.

Quevega

I found one last night NRNB and drove down to the WH shop this morning to back it.

Not a handicap, but a standout price, where its the same price as the biggest non-NRNB bookie out there.

Song For Whoever 40/1 NRNB
Stayers Hurdle

Added to my diary this afternoon.

The WH machines were being restrictive & only let me have a tenner on, so I doubled him with Stattler for the rest of the stake I wanted and thank goodness he won.

I now have 40/1 and 91/1 NRNB - thank you for your terminals meanness, WH :rugby:

 

[Joleg]

Song For Whoever 40/1 NRNB
Stayers Hurdle



Someone's hot going to be happy

 

[Quevega]

Quevega

I found one last night NRNB and drove down to the WH shop this morning to back it.

Not a handicap, but a standout price, where its the same price as the biggest non-NRNB bookie out there.

Song For Whoever 40/1 NRNB
Stayers Hurdle

Added to my diary this afternoon.

The WH machines were being restrictive & only let me have a tenner on, so I doubled him with Stattler for the rest of the stake I wanted and thank goodness he won.

I now have 40/1 and 91/1 NRNB - thank you for your terminals meanness, WH :rugby:

Funny as I looked at that yesterday after the cleeve, as I was looking at who may be a lively one.
I like the horse but the slovenliness on occasions stopped me in the end. plumped for Melon and darver star instead.