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Steve Mellish on RTV

Is he not correct? 95% of ante post players are bookmaking not betting.

Which is destroying markets, as the real bookmakers tighten the odds.
 
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AaronLad said:
Destroys the market way quicker than has ever happened, it's been a gradual process.
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I still don't get it. Are you saying that 95% of people are building ante post books and therefore bookies are shortening the prices as a result? That's clearly not the case imv.
 
It's tough, it always has been and it always will be...

It's not for everyone... cos it's hard to do...

"It's not betting", as if book making wouldn't be classed as betting :highly_amused:



It's not the same as turning up on the day and placing 1 bet on 1 horse.... not comparing the same thing.

Ante post is a skill.

We have a lot of skillful people on here.




Take your negativity to another part of the internet if you don't like it here :highly_amused: (joking of course) :love_heart:
 
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Carnage at Taunton said:
He would have been better off saying it’s dying, which it is.
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It isn't dying - this forum has never been busier and I'd say that's an indication of how popular ante post betting is at the moment. Perhaps it's getting harder for the punters but so be it. I think it's just lazy punditry by Mellish.
 
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Faugheen_Machine said:
It isn't dying - this forum has never been busier and I'd say that's an indication of how popular ante post betting is at the moment. Perhaps it's getting harder for the punters but so be it. I think it's just lazy punditry by Mellish.
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Ok, I will put it another way, it exists with much shorter prices.
Maybe that’s what he was getting at?
 
Kevloaf said:
It's tough, it always has been and it always will be...

It's not for everyone... cos it's hard to do...

"It's not betting", as if book making wouldn't be classed as betting :highly_amused:



It's not the same as turning up on the day and placing 1 bet on 1 horse.... not comparing the same thing.

Ante post is a skill.

We have a lot of skillful people on here.




Take your negativity to another part of the internet if you don't like it here :highly_amused: (joking of course) :love_heart:
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Absolutely it’s a skill and some on here are indeed very good.
Its becoming more of a skill every year.
 
I will say though……..I don’t think it’s difficult to make a book, in fact I find it rather easy if I decide to do that in a race or two.
Thing is with me though, I still like to have a buzz on the day having a horse or maybe two against the field, that I’ve used my gut feelings to bet on.
An old fashioned gambler if you like.
 
The biggest thing it is, is time consuming tbh, and I can see why some people can’t be arsed, especially if they’ve got a good edge with daily racing. I think the other thing is, you’ve got to be prepared to tie up a lot of money for a long time. If you just want to back one in every race and hope for the best in March you’re going to be disappointed, think you’ve got to back a few, take the losses on the chin and know (or at least believe) that it won’t matter because you’ll get the right one on side at a price to make up for it. Especially in the novice races.
 
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ToniC said:
The biggest thing it is, is time consuming tbh, and I can see why some people can’t be arsed, especially if they’ve got a good edge with daily racing. I think the other thing is, you’ve got to be prepared to tie up a lot of money for a long time. If you just want to back one in every race and hope for the best in March you’re going to be disappointed, think you’ve got to back a few, take the losses on the chin and know (or at least believe) that it won’t matter because you’ll get the right one on side at a price to make up for it. Especially in the novice races.
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Oh yes, you can’t go into the festival with one horse in each race, you have no chance.Some small field races you can.
I do find myself in a good position come race day because of what I’ve spotted during the season, but I’ve had to adjust a tad last year or so and more so this year, and that’s mainly because of prices not suiting me as they used to, and deciding in a lot of cases to wait until nrnb, or final decs day.
 
Carnage at Taunton said:
Oh yes, you can’t go into the festival with one horse in each race, you have no chance.
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Sorry CaT but you've just totally trashed my modus operandi !!!!!! which is one horse per race for the most part.

And I can't let that pass without comment.

I'm not knocking the book approach - it obviously works well for many FJs.

But that approach doesn't suit everyone - in terms of having enough time to form study and having deep enough pockets to invest in lots of bets.

By just backing one horse per race you keep the overheads down to a much more manageable level.

And if you view the entire 28-race Festival as one giant-sized book for betting purposes - you are basically saying: "If I pick well and get on board at good prices I'll back myself to come up with 3 winners and that will be enough for me to break even and probably make a small profit.

"If I get 4,5 or 6 winners I'll be in clover."

I've always found that system works pretty well.

When friends ask me for tips during the Festival I always say you can't just dip in and out on a few specific races and expect to make a profit - and the race-day prices on the majority of Festival races are the pits.

You have to be in for the entire ride, and most importantly imo, get on at decent prices.

It's why I'm probably not going to have a bet in 4 or 5 races at this year's Festival. I've missed the boat on the prices and I don't think lobbing a big bet on a short-priced hot-pot is the way to profit.

Obviously it's horses for courses and it sounds like your way is very different to mine - but you can come out on top both ways imho.

Best of luck in March pal.
 
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nortonscoin200 said:
Carnage at Taunton said:
Oh yes, you can’t go into the festival with one horse in each race, you have no chance.

Sorry CaT but you've just totally trashed my modus operandi !!!!!! which is one horse per race for the most part.

And I can't let that pass without comment.

I'm not knocking the book approach - it obviously works well for many FJs.

But that approach doesn't suit everyone - in terms of having enough time to form study and having deep enough pockets to invest in lots of bets.

By just backing one horse per race you keep the overheads down to a much more manageable level.

And if you view the entire 28-race Festival as one giant-sized book for betting purposes - you are basically saying: "If I pick well and get on board at good prices I'll back myself to come up with 3 winners and that will be enough for me to break even and probably make a small profit.

"If I get 4,5 or 6 winners I'll be in clover."

I've always found that system works pretty well.

When friends ask me for tips during the Festival I always say you can't just dip in and out on a few specific races and expect to make a profit - and the race-day prices on the majority of Festival races are the pits.

You have to be in for the entire ride, and most importantly imo, get on at decent prices.

It's why I'm probably not going to have a bet in 4 or 5 races at this year's Festival. I've missed the boat on the prices and I don't think lobbing a big bet on a short-priced hot-pot is the way to profit.

Obviously it's horses for courses and it sounds like your way is very different to mine - but you can come out on top both ways imho.

Best of luck in March pal.
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I don’t plan to make a book in any race.
I do back horses during the season if I like the price and like a performance, and sometimes I find myself in a good position come the day. More often then not I am kind of in between your strategy and having some type of book I guess.
I have changed a bit this season, as I had a lot of non runners last March which I had backed early doors without nrnb, so decided to be much more selective this time, and still back at prices I could not resist, but if in doubt wait until nrnb, plus I have found that prices are shorter in relation to previous years so for me it makes sense.
I will find out after the festival if it works for me, so far I am fairly happy with where I am.
Wish you luck too my friend.
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I could write pages on this subject but wouldn’t subject you good folks to my largely irrelevant opinions and so I will keep it relatively brief.

book building is ante post but ante post is not book building...as Captain Obvious would say, any bet placed before final decs is ante post whether you book build or not.

If we think of it as a spectrum book building is at one end and 1 horse per race ( or less even) is at the other end and you have everything in between. All strategies require skill to be successful, I suggest the skill sets are quite different depending on where on this spectrum you play.

id also say budget / available funds is a very significant factor too as is the availability of things like cash out which can force many peoples hand.

I think it is very important that we embrace, acknowledge and respect all forms of ante post betting and try and provide a service to all irrespective of where a person is on this spectrum.

I am not saying anything is broken but nothing is ever perfect and maybe one tweak could be for for a non book builder to put themselves forward for the 2023 podcasts just to provide a slightly different perspective as unless I’ve got it wrong the three podcasters are book builders albeit brilliant ones at that.

Please understand this is not a criticism of the forum in the slightest just a well intentioned thought/suggestion intended as one example (and I’m sure there are much better ones out there) of a small adjustment that could help improve inclusivity even more.
 
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maybe he is referring to the tight odds on a lot of races , a few years ago the likes of Shishkin would be 4/1 or 5/1, a year before the festival , not 7/4 , then there is the ridiculous odds crashing because of podcasts and tipsters, and the price crashes before they have even run , just entered up, and finally the odds on Pied Piper dropping from 12 or 14/1 to 5/2 fav after beating basically rubbish juvi's in England ,

contact a bookie to add a horse to a race like a handicap 25/1 biggest price , jeez should be 33/1 all day, minimum

i'm almost done with it all as well , i have very little in the way of online accounts left anymore , B365 closed me down this week which was my last decent account , can't get out any of those dubious punts , pretty sickening really, i know a few others feel the same way , i can't remember a year i don't have a proper bet in the Championship races,

i think Steve is pretty much spot on
 
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The Fellow said:
maybe he is referring to the tight odds on a lot of races , a few years ago the likes of Shishkin would be 4/1 or 5/1, a year before the festival , not 7/4 , then there is the ridiculous odds crashing because of podcasts and tipsters, and the price crashes before they have even run , just entered up, and finally the odds on Pied Piper dropping from 12 or 14/1 to 5/2 fav after beating basically rubbish juvi's in England ,

contact a bookie to add a horse to a race like a handicap 25/1 biggest price , jeez should be 33/1 all day, minimum

i'm almost done with it all as well , i have very little in the way of online accounts left anymore , B365 closed me down this week which was my last decent account , can't get out any of those dubious punts , pretty sickening really, i know a few others feel the same way , i can't remember a year i don't have a proper bet in the Championship races,

i think Steve is pretty much spot on
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I got into racing in the very late 90s. My first Cheltenham festival was 99 - See More Business.

From the mid 00's onwards I've kept hearing people tell me that ante post betting is dead. It makes me wonder just how good it was. I think the last 10 years have been brilliant but I always hear that it was better 'back in the day'.

It seems like things were always better 'back in the day'! It's like the old timer in the pub trying to tell me that football was much better 'back in the day'. When they played on ploughed fields, drank 8 pints the night before the game, kicked each other up and down the park etc etc.

​​​​​
 
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