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Stayers Hurdle 2019

Stayers Hurdle 2019

  • Total voters
    43
  • Poll closed .
I thought IFTC jumped a lot better today and settled okay. I quite like horses that are stepping up in trip for this race and 20/1 seems fair enough.

I take it he won't be going to cheltenham this season though?
 
sprintersacren said:
I thought IFTC jumped a lot better today and settled okay. I quite like horses that are stepping up in trip for this race and 20/1 seems fair enough.

I take it he won't be going to cheltenham this season though?
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You'll learn more after the Christmas hurdle. You'd have to think he'll get outpaced and stay on in that. But you never know stranger things have happened.

Connections seem keen on the 2 1/2 at Aintree and have seemingly dismissed 3 miles for now.
 
Scooby91 said:
You'll learn more after the Christmas hurdle. You'd have to think he'll get outpaced and stay on in that. But you never know stranger things have happened.

Connections seem keen on the 2 1/2 at Aintree and have seemingly dismissed 3 miles for now.
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Harry Fry isn't a trainer that'd rush a horse either.... I don't think he'll be stepped up to 3m this season, they'll most likely mind him and send him chasing next year? I think he'll be a potential JLT horse next year, still like the horse a lot but was way off in thinking he could make the grade in the CH!
 
I still think Thistlecrack will end up here and go off a shortish favourite.

Surely he goes to the King George. Now whilst I think he will run a very good race there (and will back him), if he doesn’t win, I expect his engine to be shown to be at its best but the jumping to be the issue.

Surely Tizzard would therefore (knowing he’s got Native River for the Gold Cup anyway) send him to the Cleeve Hurdle on the last weekend in January to see if he’d be in the mix for the Stayers. If he was to bolt up there (I personally think he would), would he not go very short for the Stayers Hurdle in March?

Of course there’s lots of Ifs there but I could definitely see him in the Thursday feature race.
 
Middle_Of_March said:
I still think Thistlecrack will end up here and go off a shortish favourite.

Surely he goes to the King George. Now whilst I think he will run a very good race there (and will back him), if he doesn’t win, I expect his engine to be shown to be at its best but the jumping to be the issue.

Surely Tizzard would therefore (knowing he’s got Native River for the Gold Cup anyway) send him to the Cleeve Hurdle on the last weekend in January to see if he’d be in the mix for the Stayers. If he was to bolt up there (I personally think he would), would he not go very short for the Stayers Hurdle in March?

Of course there’s lots of Ifs there but I could definitely see him in the Thursday feature race.
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He will be an 11 year old at the next Festival MoM... I'd be very surprised if he's shorter than Penhill myself.
 
One I better mention before he may run at the weekend is SUTTON PLACE he's a lovely horse riddled with talent. Will be interesting to see how he gets on. he's not had an easy time of it. They always said he needed a bit of cut in the ground so that may or may not be worth noting
 
Can't Catch Me said:
He will be an 11 year old at the next Festival MoM... I'd be very surprised if he's shorter than Penhill myself.
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Whilst that’s true. And not a lot of horses win aged 11 at the festival, not a lot of horses are as talented as he is over a Hurdle and trip.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
He will be an 11 year old at the next Festival MoM... I'd be very surprised if he's shorter than Penhill myself.
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I think he'd go shorter than Penhill on reputation if they came out and declared it as his target. Day of the race would be different to ante post though. They'll be ducking him won't they?
 
Kevloaf said:
I think he'd go shorter than Penhill on reputation if they came out and declared it as his target. Day of the race would be different to ante post though. They'll be ducking him won't they?
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Don't forget he ran over hurdles last year and bombed. He's be atleast 10/1 id have thought
 
Scooby91 said:
Don't forget he ran over hurdles last year and bombed. He's be atleast 10/1 id have thought
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I'd definitely take 10s NRNB though

Was that against Unowhatimeanharry over 2m4?
 
Would take a really weak renewal of the stayers for an 11yr old to win it, even one as good as thistlecrack.
Would want double figure price minimum.
 
Since the race took on its modern incarnation in 1972, only one horse (Crimson Embers, 11yo, in 1986) older than 9 has won and no 5yo has won. Age in this race is one of the strongest stats out there.
 
archie said:
Since the race took on its modern incarnation in 1972, only one horse (Crimson Embers, 11yo, in 1986) older than 9 has won and no 5yo has won. Age in this race is one of the strongest stats out there.
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And there's a very strong trend towards younger horses, the only horses older than 8 to have won in the last 30 years are multiple winners Inglis Drever and Big Bucks whose will go down in history as legends in this sphere, and Solwhit who won an average renewal.
Thistlecrack, should he take his chance, will arrive with a unique profile so cannot be immediately discounted but he would certainly have several trends to overcome in order to succeed
 
Istabraq said:
And there's a very strong trend towards younger horses, the only horses older than 8 to have won in the last 30 years are multiple winners Inglis Drever and Big Bucks whose will go down in history as legends in this sphere, and Solwhit who won an average renewal.
Thistlecrack, should he take his chance, will arrive with a unique profile so cannot be immediately discounted but he would certainly have several trends to overcome in order to succeed
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Like most of the Championship races, unless you get a stand out Champion (multiple winner) the second season hurdler or chaser is the likeliest winner. There's no doubt that the majority of horses are peaking at ages 6-8, but no horse can be completely ruled out as things can fall right for the general trends to be upset every now and then.
But the peak age trend has to be one of the most logical and scientifically sound IMO.
 
Tom Segal seemed quite keen on him for the CH still ("Need a stayer" and all that).
Although he does like to go against the grain now
 
Kevloaf said:
Tom Segal seemed quite keen on him for the CH still ("Need a stayer" and all that).
Although he does like to go against the grain now
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Tom Segal appears to be morphing into a Gobshite every time I hear him. Don't think Podcast's suit him.
 
Elliott has said Sutton Place will run in the Hatton's Grace this weekend. Ground is an issue with the horse but they were willing to run him at Punchestown in April 2017 on good to yielding ground and any type of soft in the ground in the Spring and I think they'll take their chance.

I can't help but feel there's still a huge race in him at some point in his career if he stays sound. Rated 160 after just 4 runs over hurdles as a 6 year old with the most noticeable beating of Supasundae twice giving him weight. Something went amiss in that Punchestown race but he was well fancied at 4/1 2nd fav.

Chasing appears to be put on hold this season. He didn't look a natural over fences but even then he beat Kemboy on his chase debut and went of 11/4 joint fav in the hottest Flogas Novice Chase for years.

25/1 with bet365. Seems a bet to nothing with the cash out?
 
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