Stayers Hurdle 2019

[BigChaang]

Paisley Park looked awesome , from where he was two out he sluiced through them like a 5 furlong sprinter. Incredible the way he has improved and 3/1 still value. If he was with Nicholls/Henderson he would be shorter.

Reminded me of Penhill last year at the Festival. Cracking Race in prospect this year.

 

[bobbyvalentino]

Reminded me of Penhill last year at the Festival. Cracking Race in prospect this year.

Dont know how you've got that

 

[charlie]

As impressive as Paisley Park was you would have to question what he's beat. I know lots have positions already but if it was a choice of backing Paisley Park now at 7/4 or Penhill at 7/1 it would be Penhill all day

 

[Kevloaf]

As impressive as Paisley Park was you would have to question what he's beat. I know lots have positions already but if it was a choice of backing Paisley Park now at 7/4 or Penhill at 7/1 it would be Penhill all day

He's priced up as of there is no Irish challenge, and no reigning Champion.

Too short now but an obvious player.

That's how I see the market now

 

[jono]

As impressive as Paisley Park was you would have to question what he's beat. I know lots have positions already but if it was a choice of backing Paisley Park now at 7/4 or Penhill at 7/1 it would be Penhill all day

100% Agree. I was pretty blown away by Paisley Park at the weekend but recency bias is definitely a factor here and Penhill should surely be closer between the pair. I think the vast majority in racing (not here) are still yet to take to the horse. To be fair it took me until his win in this race last season to sit up and take note. I think a big part to why he is is for the last 2 seasons, just when you thought he was going to take a grip on the 3 mile division, he to an extent failed to follow that up next time out. Having won the Albert Bartlett at 16/1, he went off 2/1Fav at Punchestown but was turned over by Champagne Classic. Setbacks and no prep saw him go off at 12/1 in the Stayers. That win made you think he could stamp his authority on the 3 mile division but again he got turned over at 2/1Fav. Think he's still yet to 'prove' himself which is pretty mad for a dual festival winner.

So what can the Irish bring to the table now we've had all the main trials?

They certainly bring more class to the table but I do have doubts on most. I can easily see Faugheen running a mighty race for a long way but just think at 11 years old, his Punchestown run was the last big hurrah. As good a horse as he has been and for a horse who has beaten many a trend over the years, even he won't be able to defy this.

Supasundae was beaten by Penhill last season and it's hard to see the form reversed. Better ground which would suit Supasundae would help Penhill (or at least not hinder him) just as much and an extreme stamina test if that could be a worry for Penhill would be just as bad for Supasundae.

Bachasson, Bacardys, Bapuame would surely have place claims at best.

The only other horse who neither will be coming over from Ireland or who ran in the English trials is Kilbricken Storm

Has anyone heard any updates on him since Tizzard said he'd be reverting to hurdles? Last I saw they said he would have the 1 run before the Stayers. Assume the Cleeve came too soon for him unless he had another setback?

I was quick to question him winning the AB last season with the ground and the way the race was run but he did finish ahead of Ok Corral, Ballyward, Santini, Paisley Park and then he put any real doubts to rest when he finished just half a length down from Next Destination and Delta Work in the grade 1 at Punchestown on yielding ground. Of course Paisley Park is a completely different prospect this season and plenty of the others have improved for a fence. I know some were able to get on him at 40/1 after the news first broke about him reverting back but he probably still represents some remaining value here at 25/1 or 20/1 NRNB.

Other than that I really cannot see any of the English reversing the form. (though I do think Black Op will improve again)


On a side note we could see plenty of winners come out from last years Albert Bartlett. I actually requested a bet with SkyBet for 3 winners (this year) to come out of last years Albert Bartlett, sadly they declined the bet.

Kilbricken Storm
Ok Corral (Fav in 4 Miler)
Santini (Fav in RSA)
Ballyward (2nd Fav 4 Miler)
Tower Bridge
Chris's Dream
Real Steel
Paisley Park (Fav for Stayers)
Mr Whipped
Talkischeap

 

[BigChaang]

Better take a good look at the Runners in this year's A.B then Jono , see which ones to look out for.

 

[Scooby91]

100% Agree. I was pretty blown away by Paisley Park at the weekend but recency bias is definitely a factor here and Penhill should surely be closer between the pair. I think the vast majority in racing (not here) are still yet to take to the horse. To be fair it took me until his win in this race last season to sit up and take note. I think a big part to why he is is for the last 2 seasons, just when you thought he was going to take a grip on the 3 mile division, he to an extent failed to follow that up next time out. Having won the Albert Bartlett at 16/1, he went off 2/1Fav at Punchestown but was turned over by Champagne Classic. Setbacks and no prep saw him go off at 12/1 in the Stayers. That win made you think he could stamp his authority on the 3 mile division but again he got turned over at 2/1Fav. Think he's still yet to 'prove' himself which is pretty mad for a dual festival winner.

So what can the Irish bring to the table now we've had all the main trials?

They certainly bring more class to the table but I do have doubts on most. I can easily see Faugheen running a mighty race for a long way but just think at 11 years old, his Punchestown run was the last big hurrah. As good a horse as he has been and for a horse who has beaten many a trend over the years, even he won't be able to defy this.

Supasundae was beaten by Penhill last season and it's hard to see the form reversed. Better ground which would suit Supasundae would help Penhill (or at least not hinder him) just as much and an extreme stamina test if that could be a worry for Penhill would be just as bad for Supasundae.

Bachasson, Bacardys, Bapuame would surely have place claims at best.

The only other horse who neither will be coming over from Ireland or who ran in the English trials is Kilbricken Storm

Has anyone heard any updates on him since Tizzard said he'd be reverting to hurdles? Last I saw they said he would have the 1 run before the Stayers. Assume the Cleeve came too soon for him unless he had another setback?

I was quick to question him winning the AB last season with the ground and the way the race was run but he did finish ahead of Ok Corral, Ballyward, Santini, Paisley Park and then he put any real doubts to rest when he finished just half a length down from Next Destination and Delta Work in the grade 1 at Punchestown on yielding ground. Of course Paisley Park is a completely different prospect this season and plenty of the others have improved for a fence. I know some were able to get on him at 40/1 after the news first broke about him reverting back but he probably still represents some remaining value here at 25/1 or 20/1 NRNB.

Other than that I really cannot see any of the English reversing the form. (though I do think Black Op will improve again)


On a side note we could see plenty of winners come out from last years Albert Bartlett. I actually requested a bet with SkyBet for 3 winners (this year) to come out of last years Albert Bartlett, sadly they declined the bet.

Kilbricken Storm
Ok Corral (Fav in 4 Miler)
Santini (Fav in RSA)
Ballyward (2nd Fav 4 Miler)
Tower Bridge
Chris's Dream
Real Steel
Paisley Park (Fav for Stayers)
Mr Whipped
Talkischeap

KS goes straight there as long as there's no interruptions inbetween.

Decent ground and I personally think supasundae is better than penhill imo.

 

[mayo]

Well argued jono - could have had a fine related form multi out of those.

 

[Humble Pie]

Jono’s analysis’s are so accurate and on the money IMO

I’ve backed both Penhill and PP ante post
At current prices Penhill is one of the best bets out , hope hatrick bid successful

 

[Cashew King]

He's priced up as of there is no Irish challenge, and no reigning Champion.

Too short now but an obvious player.

That's how I see the market now

That sums it up nicely - if you’re on at a price, congrats - you,ve got a live ticket....but if you’re not on you couldn’t take him at the price he is now.

 

[Kevloaf]

I imagine this will not go down universally, but you can't have Paisley Park as a banker as he's just this seasons Sam Spinner.

Yes the trainer is better, she's had two festival winners, and yes the jockey is better despite his awful Festival record...

But ultimately Paisley Park is now fav based on UK form.

I like PP, (I liked Sam Spinner) but to back Paisley Park at 7/4 versus Penhill, Faugheen and Supasundae is not value.

I'll argue that until the day... as one of the people on at 25s, I'll cheer him home. There is only Penhill that would be a better result for me ... but I'm hearing Paisley Park is banker material (podcasts) and he's not

 

[charlie]

Good post Kev. Paisley Park has thrived in what looks like a very tired UK staying hurdlers division. No denying he’s done whats been asked of him impressively and id love him to be the new star on the block, but 7/4 is a terrible price. Penhill at 7/1 isn’t great but for those taking prices now or nearer the time that’s a no brainier IMO

 

[Westo97]

I imagine this will not go down universally, but you can't have Paisley Park as a banker as he's just this seasons Sam Spinner.

Yes the trainer is better, she's had two festival winners, and yes the jockey is better despite his awful Festival record...

But ultimately Paisley Park is now fav based on UK form.

I like PP, (I liked Sam Spinner) but to back Paisley Park at 7/4 versus Penhill, Faugheen and Supasundae is not value.

I'll argue that until the day... a's one of the people on at 25s, I'll cheer him home. There is only Penhill that would be a better result for me ... but I'm hearing Paisley Park is banker material (podcasts) and he's not

Yep agree 100%. Something about this division and performances that reel people in like no other.
I was dead against Uknowwhatimeanharry two years ago, the same with Sam Spinner last year and whilst not as confidently as the last two, I will be against Paisley Park this year.

Its hard to knock the horse as he just keeps improving and has done nothing wrong, but its a poor division in England and you just know the irish will find at least one to beat it on the day. Whilst PP has beat all the British has to offer, I still suspect that something from this mediocre crop could beat it on the day. Possibly something like Wholestone who has not looked quite right so far this season, was still going well when made serious error 2 out in the cleeve.

 

[bobbyvalentino]

I imagine this will not go down universally, but you can't have Paisley Park as a banker as he's just this seasons Sam Spinner.

Yes the trainer is better, she's had two festival winners, and yes the jockey is better despite his awful Festival record...

But ultimately Paisley Park is now fav based on UK form.

I like PP, (I liked Sam Spinner) but to back Paisley Park at 7/4 versus Penhill, Faugheen and Supasundae is not value.

I'll argue that until the day... a's one of the people on at 25s, I'll cheer him home. There is only Penhill that would be a better result for me ... but I'm hearing Paisley Park is banker material (podcasts) and he's not

He’s the rightful fav, probably two points short because people have been waiting for a horse to hang their hat on.

 

[boopa]

Yep agree 100%. Something about this division and performances that reel people in like no other.
I was dead against Uknowwhatimeanharry two years ago, the same with Sam Spinner last year and whilst not as confidently as the last two, I will be against Paisley Park this year.

Its hard to knock the horse as he just keeps improving and has done nothing wrong, but its a poor division in England and you just know the irish will find at least one to beat it on the day. Whilst PP has beat all the British has to offer, I still suspect that something from this mediocre crop could beat it on the day. Possibly something like Wholestone who has not looked quite right so far this season, was still going well when made serious error 2 out in the cleeve.

Except for Kilbricken Storm.

 

[Quevega]

Except for Kilbricken Storm.

Yep, it does look like a narrow race though now. Especially if they go a good strong gallop.

Paisley Park deserves to be Fav, and with a strong pace he's quite solid.
But Kilbricken Storm would also come into this as a live danger. especially at the price.
And Penhill would be value also, at the prices and his track record, even though the stronger gallop may not suit.

Given a slow pace, or even gallop, then I'd say Penhill is definitely the value and it brings other players into play also.

I'm seriously considering playing in running in this race which is not something I normally do, but I tend to be in house on the Thursday so seems sensible to me. I might even have previous years timings handy to compare pace on similar ground. rather than rely on the commentators opinion.

 

[jack1092]

I imagine this will not go down universally, but you can't have Paisley Park as a banker as he's just this seasons Sam Spinner.

Yes the trainer is better, she's had two festival winners, and yes the jockey is better despite his awful Festival record...

But ultimately Paisley Park is now fav based on UK form.

I like PP, (I liked Sam Spinner) but to back Paisley Park at 7/4 versus Penhill, Faugheen and Supasundae is not value.

I'll argue that until the day... as one of the people on at 25s, I'll cheer him home. There is only Penhill that would be a better result for me ... but I'm hearing Paisley Park is banker material (podcasts) and he's not

I can't remember if its on here on TRF, but i actually said months ago, i hope hes this years Sam Spinner, but actually wins the WH instead.

PP is not dependant on ground, and doesn't need to try and run from the front. He is more versatile that SS, so to me he is a much better WH contender than SS would've been. For all SS did look decent last year.

 

[doctorwu]

I imagine this will not go down universally, but you can't have Paisley Park as a banker as he's just this seasons Sam Spinner.

Yes the trainer is better, she's had two festival winners, and yes the jockey is better despite his awful Festival record...

But ultimately Paisley Park is now fav based on UK form.

I like PP, (I liked Sam Spinner) but to back Paisley Park at 7/4 versus Penhill, Faugheen and Supasundae is not value.

I'll argue that until the day... as one of the people on at 25s, I'll cheer him home. There is only Penhill that would be a better result for me ... but I'm hearing Paisley Park is banker material (podcasts) and he's not

Couldn't agree more. I Expect him to get beat. Sam Spinner was my "lay" of the fez

 

[Humble Pie]

The test is yet to come for Paisley Park , Penhill has been there twice before successfully and no doubt Mr Blooms money is in place .
Cannot believe price differential

 

[Scooby91]

The test is yet to come for Paisley Park , Penhill has been there twice before successfully and no doubt Mr Blooms money is in place .
Cannot believe price differential

"No doubt Mr blooms money's in place"
it's not a handicap. His forms there plain to see on the table. I very much doubt he'd be backing penhill in the stayers hurdle antepost.