Stayers Hurdle 2018

[loveracing]

I reckon Supasundae is plenty skinny enough, still haven’t backed him and won’t be going in now (obviously wish I had a couple of months ago). He’s never won over three miles so there has to be doubts about whether he truly sees out the trip, and you can pick holes in his form. He may well still be improving but he’d need to over that trip for me. Penhill the interesting one.. if fully tuned up and the whispers are good then I’ll be adding him

A couple weeks ago I was told Supersundae has improved loads this season and to back him wherever he goes, more likely here.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I've sat here tonight looking over this market, and keep coming back to Supasundae. Sure, Sam Spinner hasn't done much wrong this season, but Cheltenham is a unique course and Supasundae has that course form in the bag, and has improved for his seasonal debut to get within 3/4 of a length of Apples Jade LTO. Improvement on that will see him go close and I suspect he will have been campaigned to be at his fittest for this race. A few on here also had stats about horses returning to the festival after winning the previous year, which I believe was quite profitable, so this must be positive.

A week and a half ago I wrote this, it has made my position in this race now pretty strong, as I am now in the green on the exchanges for this race regardless of the outcome, although I also have Supasundae in a few multi's too at 7/1-8/1.

I'll be honest, I couldn't have predicted he was going to beat Faugheen, but the conditions were perfect if he was ever going to do so.

I decided to lay off Supasundae at shorter prices purely because, despite my own thinking that he was the best bet in this race at the time of writing, I do now feel he is too short and will be bigger in running, for sure. It is also looking a very competitive race, so I am happy with him in my multi's at bigger prices, but now have every angle covered on the exchanges, a nice position to be in, as it's not the case for many races this festival for me.

 

[Robbante]

Have done 2pts on Yanworth at 12/1 hills for this race. Was loathe to as I’ve got him for the RSA but think he’ll likely end up here (confirmation on target due next week or so). If confirmed for this then will be 6/7s?

I don’t think he gets the respect he deserves because of a couple of below par runs. He is a proven grade one performer, has 12 wins from 18 runs, and don’t see what other horse in the line up would bring that level of form. Even this year people have been getting at him... on his last run he beat the favourite for the JLT 8 lengths.

The one time he has tried this trip he clearly outstayed Supasundae, on a flatter track and on Supasundae’s favoured good ground. Don’t see why the conditions at Cheltenham would see Supasundae reverse that form, if anything I could see a bigger gap between the two. Imo the trip really is the key to this horse and I want to have a decent return on him whichever race he takes in

 

[kinloch brae]

I think this race is a real puzzle and that was before everyone wanted to throw their hat in the ring. In hindsight I should probably have left the race alone. Thomas Campbell doesn't look good enough but there probably nothing else for him and although The Worlds End has better prospects both stamina and jumping are definite issues. He made rapid progress in the Albert Bartlett but who knows how he would have finished. The ground will have to make a big difference.

The one certainty appears to be that you will need to be a thorough stayer. Sam Spinner should make sure of that. I was originally against because of the likely quicker ground and his lack of experience on the track. Several months later I haven't seen anything better and he has had a nice break. If he gets bigger than 9/2 I might consider him.

I would have stamina doubts about both Supasundae and Yanworth. I wouldn't use the Aintree race as a guarantee of either's stamina. You could have thrown a blanket over five. If King was that certain about three miles being his trip wouldn't he have had another go? Having won a Grade 1 at two miles can we really assume that Supasundae will be as good at three? I suspect somewhere in the middle is the optimum for both.

We haven't seen Penhill, it is an unknown for The New One, Unowhatimeanharry had his chance last year, La Bague Au Roi doesn't look good enough and ditto Wholestone.

 

[Robbante]

The worlds end won’t be far away I doubt on good ground. The thing putting me off Sam Spinner, though I have covered from earlier in the season, is that Colin’s Sister and Beer Goggles won impressively in staying hurdles then couldn’t back it up. Makes me wonder how much these 3m races on deep ground take it out of a horse. Yanworth will never win by far as he idles, the way he moved into that aintree race made me think he had plenty left in the tank. Maybe the plan with him was always to step him up to 3m in the big races this season but not before? Would explain why the second he beat the JLT fave comfortably King announced his race at the festival would be either the RSA or stayers

 

[Kevloaf]

A couple weeks ago I was told Supersundae has improved loads this season and to back him wherever he goes, more likely here.

Hope you took it literally and took 20/1 at the weekend?

Interesting point raised on Supasundae not finding much at the end of his races was raised on a podcast..... "outstayed" by Yanworth, "outstayed" by Apple's Jade...

My opinion on that is that it is interesting because there is no ABSOLUTE proof either of them are strong stayers. In reality all they've gone is "outstay Supasundae, who's best ever run is now over 2m!.... (They probably both are though)...

Loosely I'd say that is what happened with Jezki and Hurricane Fly over 3m.... Hurriucane Fly was just a better horse than Jezki, so beat him over 3m but neither are actually stayers (very loose example but it might be a genuine worry? - and at FAV you need to look at all the angles?)

***just read KB has mentioned the same doubts about the proof of the stamina too, so obviously not a completely wacky theory

 

[Robbante]

Hope you took it literally and took 20/1 at the weekend?

Interesting point raised on Supasundae not finding much at the end of his races was raised on a podcast..... "outstayed" by Yanworth, "outstayed" by Apple's Jade...

My opinion on that is that it is interesting because there is no ABSOLUTE proof either of them are strong stayers. In reality all they've gone is "outstay Supasundae, who's best ever run is now over 2m!.... (They probably both are though)...

Loosely I'd say that is what happened with Jezki and Hurricane Fly over 3m.... Hurriucane Fly was just a better horse than Jezki, so beat him over 3m but neither are actually stayers (very loose example but it might be a genuine worry? - and at FAV you need to look at all the angles?)

***just read KB has mentioned the same doubts about the proof of the stamina too, so obviously not a completely wacky theory

Take your point, but just don’t think yanworth’s been got to the bottom of. 12 out of 18 runs and most of those he’s just won, he’s never going to win too flashy, especially at the top level against top horses. He had ballyoptic back in 4th at aintree, he’s a fair stayer. He wouldn’t be the strongest bet as he can throw in the odd really poor performance, but think he’s a lot better than a 12/1 shot

 

[Scooby91]

Take your point, but just don’t think yanworth’s been got to the bottom of. 12 out of 18 runs and most of those he’s just won, he’s never going to win too flashy, especially at the top level against top horses. He had ballyoptic back in 4th at aintree, he’s a fair stayer. He wouldn’t be the strongest bet as he can throw in the odd really poor performance, but think he’s a lot better than a 12/1 shot

Bear in mind the 12/1 is not nrnb only insurance and id be pretty confident he goes rsa.

 

[Kevloaf]

Take your point, but just don’t think yanworth’s been got to the bottom of. 12 out of 18 runs and most of those he’s just won, he’s never going to win too flashy, especially at the top level against top horses. He had ballyoptic back in 4th at aintree, he’s a fair stayer. He wouldn’t be the strongest bet as he can throw in the odd really poor performance, but think he’s a lot better than a 12/1 shot

I was more highlighting Supasundae as not a stayer than knocking Yanworth, as technically Yanworth out styaed him.... obviously doesn't mean either aren't dour stayers but just unproven at the moment?

 

[Robbante]

Bear in mind the 12/1 is not nrnb only insurance and id be pretty confident he goes rsa.

Yeah it’s a risk, had him covered months ago for the RSA and probably should have held off, but it’s an educated gamble that they’ll go here. I just think they’ll look at Supasundae at the head of the market, and look at the RSA now being a fairly hot race and plump for what looks the easier option. I doubt JP has much confidence in UNWIMH nowadays and the stayers is also a more valuable race

 

[Scooby91]

Yeah it’s a risk, had him covered months ago for the RSA and probably should have held off, but it’s an educated gamble that they’ll go here. I just think they’ll look at Supasundae at the head of the market, and look at the RSA now being a fairly hot race and plump for what looks the easier option. I doubt JP has much confidence in UNWIMH nowadays and the stayers is also a more valuable race

I don't think yogi breisners 2 sessions have been teaching him how to jump a hurdle. But we should find out soon enough.

Supasundae has filled into his huge frame and is a differnet a horse physically, and his jumping technique has improved.

 

[Robbante]

I was more highlighting Supasundae as not a stayer than knocking Yanworth, as technically Yanworth out styaed him.... obviously doesn't mean either aren't dour stayers but just unproven at the moment?

Definitely unproven as stayers at this stage, but doubts on that front for a lot of them. He’s only got to beat those who line up in the race and can’t see many who you could describe as dour stayers, most have raced over shorter. I think Sam Spinner should probably be favourite but wouldn’t have a lot of confidence he’ll run up to his form earlier in the season

 

[Robbante]

I don't think yogi breisners 2 sessions have been teaching him how to jump a hurdle. But we should find out soon enough.

Supasundae has filled into his huge frame and is a differnet a horse physically, and his jumping technique has improved.

Couldn’t be confident ruling Supasundae out, but you can only go by what you see, and until I see him knuckle down and win a race over 3 miles I wouldn’t see him as a 3/1 shot

 

[Folski]

The only two for me in this are Sam Spinner and L'ami Serge.

 

[Sirbetalot]

I am going in again on UKWIMH @14s 2.5pts E/W.

I keep coming back to this race and already have UKWIMH in a multi plus L'ami but every time I read up on the race UKWIMH keeps screaming at me..

I do not know many if any horse in the pass 10 years that has his kind of form, his last 13 races have mostly been over 3 miles and a few at around 2.5 miles and again most of them have been high grade races and his form reads like 1111111131123

I know he has been beaten the last two times but I do not think Fry was flying high at the time and his strike rate still is not that great, but come march Unowhatimeanharry would have been well rested and being 10yr old he might need a few months break in-between races plus hopefully Fry will be having more winners so 14s E/W screams good value.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I don’t disagree Sir, I think it could be a fairly weak renewal so having fallen short there twice this year he could be good enough, the question I’d ask is how will his price alter over the next 4 weeks as I’m sure he’s heading straight there without another run.
On the day there’ll be offers a plenty with enhanced places so could it pay to wait until the day ?
Of course if the main challengers defect then you run the risk of missing the price....

 

[jono]

The fact that Yanworth isn't running in the Reynoldstown at Ascot this weekend (as was suggested would be the likely race if he targets the RSA) probably suggests he comes back over hurdles for this race?

 

[Folski]

The fact that Yanworth isn't running in the Reynoldstown at Ascot this weekend (as was suggested would be the likely race if he targets the RSA) probably suggests he comes back over hurdles for this race?

Pretty sure they said after last race he comes straight here so I wouldn't think so.

 

[Kevloaf]

I am going in again on UKWIMH @14s 2.5pts E/W.

I keep coming back to this race and already have UKWIMH in a multi plus L'ami but every time I read up on the race UKWIMH keeps screaming at me..

I do not know many if any horse in the pass 10 years that has his kind of form, his last 13 races have mostly been over 3 miles and a few at around 2.5 miles and again most of them have been high grade races and his form reads like 1111111131123

I know he has been beaten the last two times but I do not think Fry was flying high at the time and his strike rate still is not that great, but come march Unowhatimeanharry would have been well rested and being 10yr old he might need a few months break in-between races plus hopefully Fry will be having more winners so 14s E/W screams good value.

I agree with that. I also am not sure he'd get any bigger in price.

I hope now because I backed very early in the season at 9/1 and don't want to have to back again :highly_amused:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Yanworth now a player in this race, confirmed today by Alan King. Taken out of all other options for the festival.