Stayers Hurdle 2018

[Robbante]

I think AJ is a different mare this season she's filled out and matured a lot and looks like she's found another level, but we'll let the mares hurdle do the talking.

Valid point. Only doubts about Sam Spinner for me would be on genuine good ground. But then under those conditions I’d fancy The Worlds End/Penhill if back. Supasundae on good ground i’d respect, and was a great ew price obviously when 20s. At 8s now I’ve got to leave alone

 

[SeanRock]

Valid point. Only doubts about Sam Spinner for me would be on genuine good ground. But then under those conditions I’d fancy The Worlds End/Penhill if back. Supasundae on good ground i’d respect, and was a great ew price obviously when 20s. At 8s now I’ve got to leave alone

If Sam Spinner were to continue his upward curve form lines until March id be very impressed and he's be a worthy winner if he were to do the business, but i just don't see it i think he'll be vulnerable to an experienced classy sort on the day, this is the first year in a while that there hasn't been a standout staying hurdle star dominating the division i.e. Thistlecrack, UNWIMH & Big Bucks

 

[doctorwu]

In the Ryanair at Aintree on good spring ground Supasundae finished less than a length ahead of Snow Falcon, who had been soundly beaten by UNWIMH twice last year. In the coral cup last year he finished a couple of lengths ahead of Taquin De Seuil, who Sam Spinner and UNWIMH hammered last time out. Just don’t think his form is there at the top level as a staying hurdler. I think Sam Spinner is a worthy favourite given it was good to soft last time out, but I would expect The Worlds End to get a lot closer in March

Rob,
Supasundae has fez form, he's done it. SS will set the race up and get eaten up by a few in this race. Cant have him in the first 4. He's had his day in the sun, now let the horses who are preparing for this take centre stage.

 

[Scooby91]

Valid point. Only doubts about Sam Spinner for me would be on genuine good ground. But then under those conditions I’d fancy The Worlds End/Penhill if back. Supasundae on good ground i’d respect, and was a great ew price obviously when 20s. At 8s now I’ve got to leave alone

Id agree with the supasundae part. He's going to go back out a couple of points after the Irish champion hurdle id have thought. Hes deffinately in with a solid ew chance , if he'd have gone straight there his price now is fair.

 

[Robbante]

Rob,
Supasundae has fez form, he's done it. SS will set the race up and get eaten up by a few in this race. Cant have him in the first 4. He's had his day in the sun, now let the horses who are preparing for this take centre stage.

Respect Supasundae for sure, but won't be getting involved at the price he is now. I think you can get at his form, even in the Coral Cup he was only beating horses like Taquin De Seuil a couple of lengths. This season UNWIMH beat that horse by further giving him half a stone, and UNWIMH seems regressive. I don't see Supasundae winning the race and 8s isn't a decent enough ew price for me. If he gets pushed out a bit then i may have a little on ew

 

[Kevloaf]

What has Beer Goggles done wrong to be 25/1 in a place? (888) - Has he missed an engagement that I haven't noticed?

If the win over UNWIMH (14/1), Colin's Sister(33/1), Wholestone(16/1) is to be believed he should be shorter than all 3?


I didn't back him after that win as I felt he was too short but 25/1 seems fair!

 

[doctorwu]

Respect Supasundae for sure, but won't be getting involved at the price he is now. I think you can get at his form, even in the Coral Cup he was only beating horses like Taquin De Seuil a couple of lengths. This season UNWIMH beat that horse by further giving him half a stone, and UNWIMH seems regressive. I don't see Supasundae winning the race and 8s isn't a decent enough ew price for me. If he gets pushed out a bit then i may have a little on ew

Rob,
TDS another horse with fez form. It counts for a lot. What they do through the season means nothing with some horses, come the fez they perform. Supasundae entire season is built around this race. He may not be quite good enough but he will go close imo.

 

[Kevloaf]

Rob,
TDS another horse with fez form. It counts for a lot. What they do through the season means nothing with some horses, come the fez they perform. Supasundae entire season is built around this race. He may not be quite good enough but he will go close imo.

That is a good point regarding the festival form and TDS in particular.

I think they have Supasundae priced about right because I don't think he's a good value bet and I would be tempted at a bit bigger if I was getting involved in the race now. In the fullness of time, being beaten by Apple's Jade, Yanworth and Sutton Place not too far might look brilliant.... or it might mean he is not quite classy enough to win a championship race...

 

[Robbante]

Rob,
TDS another horse with fez form. It counts for a lot. What they do through the season means nothing with some horses, come the fez they perform. Supasundae entire season is built around this race. He may not be quite good enough but he will go close imo.

Valid points, and maybe I’d be seeing him in a different light had I got on at 20s. Will make a decision the night before as I can’t see he’ll be shorter, softish ground and I’ll leave alone probably

 

[The Beast]

That race with Apples Jade and Supasundae on everyones lips ,and rightly so.

Having watched it couple of times today again , I keep coming back to the third horse Bapaume who was making with seasonal debut. Bapaume travelled exceptionally well throughout race , moving into position to challenge turning for home. Race fitness told and he faded final furlong.

Looking at his races , this was his first time at 3mile , after running really well at 2 mile last year.Looks a very big improver and only a five year old.

I then had little look around bookies and Skybet are a standout 66/1 when generally he a 20/1 shot , had to tip my toe in again in race as thats just a massive price.

 

[Kevloaf]

That race with Apples Jade and Supasundae on everyones lips ,and rightly so.

Having watched it couple of times today again , I keep coming back to the third horse Bapaume who was making with seasonal debut. Bapaume travelled exceptionally well throughout race , moving into position to challenge turning for home. Race fitness told and he faded final furlong.

Looking at his races , this was his first time at 3mile , after running really well at 2 mile last year.Looks a very big improver and only a five year old.

I then had little look around bookies and Skybet are a standout 66/1 when generally he a 20/1 shot , had to tip my toe in again in race as thats just a massive price.

Can't knock anything 50/1+ as a punt...

For me it would be a monumental ask for a 5yo that wasn't stand-out last year to come in to open company and win a 3m championship event though this season.

Certainly was a nice run though and if improving for fitness next time, he shouldn't be almost 8 times the price of Supasundae...

I'm not a devoted follower to stats/trends but I do remember making a case for Apple's Jade last year (early on in the season) to come here and perhaps Ista pointed out just how tough that would actually be for a 5yo in this race... just the nature of it alone would be too tough? (That might be inaccurate on who and what was said though haha)

 

[Robbante]

Can't knock anything 50/1+ as a punt...

For me it would be a monumental ask for a 5yo that wasn't stand-out last year to come in to open company and win a 3m championship event though this season.

Certainly was a nice run though and if improving for fitness next time, he shouldn't be almost 8 times the price of Supasundae...

I'm not a devoted follower to stats/trends but I do remember making a case for Apple's Jade last year (early on in the season) to come here and perhaps Ista pointed out just how tough that would actually be for a 5yo in this race... just the nature of it alone would be too tough? (That might be inaccurate on who and what was said though haha)

The favourite is a 5yo so fair negative for him also!

 

[jono]

The favourite is a 5yo so fair negative for him also!

Now a 6yo, add a year on at the start of every calendar year. (Bapuame now a 5yo)

From gaulstats ahead of last years festival where there was no 5 year old to line up either:

No 5 year old has ever won this race. French bred 5 yr olds such as Le Coudray, Cyborgo and Escartifigue went close and Smad Place was third in 2012. What would have happened if he had been allowed to lead? 5 of the 11 five year olds to run in the last 14 editions have been placed (and 4 of the last 6). None ran in the last three years

 

[Kevloaf]

Now a 6yo, add a year on at the start of every calendar year. (Bapuame now a 5yo)

From gaulstats ahead of last years festival where there was no 5 year old to line up either:

Bapaume is 5yo this festival
Sam Spinner is 6yo this festival

That stat certainly says not many horses try it and that is probably for good reason?

He might end up in a handicap?

 

[jono]

On Bapaume - after that run I had him down as a decent chance in a handicap rather than this race. Quite liked him for the Coral Cup but not yet in the early betting market. Rated 146 after that run which fits in well. It would be a drop back to 2m5 but the race almost always produces horses that go onto contest 3m+ races later down the line.

 

[Robbante]

Bapaume is 5yo this festival
Sam Spinner is 6yo this festival

That stat certainly says not many horses try it and that is probably for good reason?

He might end up in a handicap?

Ah fair one, something I’ve learnt

 

[Robbante]

On Bapaume - after that run I had him down as a decent chance in a handicap rather than this race. Quite liked him for the Coral Cup but not yet in the early betting market. Rated 146 after that run which fits in well. It would be a drop back to 2m5 but the race almost always produces horses that go onto contest 3m+ races later down the line.

Bapaume added today with paddys for the coral cup at 25s

 

[Robbante]

Bapaume added today with paddys for the coral cup at 25s

Not showing on their book for this race but was requested on twitter earlier and that price given with their dial a bet team

 

[Kevloaf]

What price would Apple's JAde go off for this race.

Sky (via the SL website on Lydia's Road To Cheltenham) https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/lydia-hislop:-road-to-cheltenham-eight/138567

Are offering 4/1. Last season I would have just taken it ... but would it be worth 'tying up' the money for the sake of maybe 3/1 rather than 4/1?

A penny in the hand is worth 2 in a bush or whatever the saying it :highly_amused:

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

STD on TNO, from ATR.

Sam Twiston-Davies has not given up hope of The New One winning for the second time at the Cheltenham Festival.

Trained by his father, Nigel, The New One won the Neptune Novices' Hurdle in 2013 and has finished third, fifth, fourth and fifth in the last four Champion Hurdles.

Having shown he retains plenty of ability this season while falling just short of the very best, he will be stepped up to three miles in March for the Sun Bets Stayers' Hurdle.

"Everyone knows what Nige is like and he will always be tempted by the Champion Hurdle, but he did say the one thing he would do this year is try the three-mile race," said Twiston-Davies.

"He is in fantastic form and he will run over two miles at Haydock, then we will step into the unknown at Cheltenham and see and hope.

"The one thing with the Champion Hurdle is the prize-money is fantastic all the way down. He finished fifth last year and got loads of prize-money and you never know, he could nick a bit more.

"(But) when you go to Cheltenham you want to believe you can win and the trouble is with some of those younger horses coming through, they just have that little bit too much speed for him.

"The chance we have of winning at Cheltenham is in the three-mile race. We are stepping massively into the unknown, but you have to remember he won a Neptune over two-five and he ran through the finishing line and didn't pull up until the top of the hill.

"If the ground is good, I don't see any reason why he won't get it. It will open up a lot more avenues and as we have seen over two miles this season, he is still plenty capable of picking up prize-money in the best races."