September ‘24 Yankee

[Eggs]

With MoM suggesting he won’t be back just yet, I’m delighted to say Irish Rugby has agreed to be captain for September so let’s have plenty of discussion and nominations for him to consider.

 

[Eggs]

…..thought it might be useful to list races/horses we have selected, a bit of a gap analysis although there’s nothing to stop Irish Rugby going in again.

I think Ballyburn’s whereabouts is having an impact but I’m mostly surprised we haven’t got a NHC candidate on board;

Supreme; Kopek des Bordes 25-1
Arkle; Slade Steel
CH; C Hill 5/2, Lossie 3-1
MH; Golden Ace 10-1, Dysart Enos 14-1
NHC;
Gallaghers;
BANC; Dancing City 10-1, ReadinTommywrong 25-1
CC; El Fab 3-1, GW, Marine National 14-1
Turn; IEP 10-1, Caldwell Potter 20-1
Ry; Il Etait Temps 14-1
Teahupoo; 3-1 (twice)
MNH;
TH; Willy de H 12-1
AB; Sounds Victorius 16-1
GC; GDC 3-1, F2F 4-1 (twice), Gerri Colombe
MC; BDA 5-1, Dinoblue

 

[Lobos]

Corbetts Cross Ryanair......:barbershop_quartet_member:

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I think Ballyburn’s whereabouts is having an impact but I’m mostly surprised we haven’t got a NHC candidate on board;

I've sneaked Dancing City into a patent for the NH Chase, it was probably Saxon Warrior who made the suggestion, obviously could well have the class to go BANC but any changes that may be made to the Turners could impact where Mullins sends his novice chasers so it's not out of the question this one gets Paddy on him come March...

 

[Odin]

I'm absolutely flabbergasted that we don't have Gaelic warrior covered for the Ryanair yet...

 

[Saxon Warrior]

…..thought it might be useful to list races/horses we have selected, a bit of a gap analysis although there’s nothing to stop Irish Rugby going in again.

I think Ballyburn’s whereabouts is having an impact but I’m mostly surprised we haven’t got a NHC candidate on board;

Supreme; Kopek des Bordes 25-1
Arkle; Slade Steel
CH; C Hill 5/2, Lossie 3-1
MH; Golden Ace 10-1, Dysart Enos 14-1
NHC;
Gallaghers;
BANC; Dancing City 10-1, ReadinTommywrong 25-1
CC; El Fab 3-1, GW, Marine National 14-1
Turn; IEP 10-1, Caldwell Potter 20-1
Teahupoo; 3-1 (twice)
MNH;
TH; Willy de H 12-1
AB; Sounds Victorius 16-1
GC; GDC 3-1, F2F 4-1 (twice), Gerri Colombe
MC; BDA 5-1, Dinoblue

Ryanair not used at all yet Eggs

 

[Eggs]

Ryanair not used at all yet Eggs

….sorry, Saxon, we have Il Etait Temps on board at 14-1 in June. Post amended.

 

[Lobos]

I've sneaked Dancing City into a patent for the NH Chase, it was probably Saxon Warrior who made the suggestion, obviously could well have the class to go BANC but any changes that may be made to the Turners could impact where Mullins sends his novice chasers so it's not out of the question this one gets Paddy on him come March...

Agree. Mullins said 'the further he goes the better' as well so he's clearly all stamina. Short price though.

 

[Eggs]

….for obvious reasons we haven’t got Ballyburn on board as yet. Not sure even the stable tour will be conclusive, I suspect Mullins will cover a couple of bases, short to mid-distance.

Turners for me.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

I'm absolutely flabbergasted that we don't have Gaelic warrior covered for the Ryanair yet...

If I was involved, I’d be thinking now’s an ok time to get him in. I’d say he and El Fab will be split and GW is more versatile.

I happen to think Dancing City 12s is the best antepost value of any Festival market right now as well.

So those two would get my vote. Will catch-up when I’m next on here in a few weeks

 

[Odin]

If I was involved, I’d be thinking now’s an ok time to get him in. I’d say he and El Fab will be split and GW is more versatile.

I happen to think Dancing City 12s is the best antepost value of any Festival market right now as well.

So those two would get my vote. Will catch-up when I’m next on here in a few weeks

Yeah...

Dancing City (RSA)
El Fabiolo (QMCC)
Gaelic (Ryanair)
Teahupoo/Theleme/Strong Leader (Stayers, in that order)

Would be my choices at the moment, balancing odds with potential target and winning chances. I've got the first two fourfolds covered already though so maybe I'm biased in that regard.

 

[Atlantic Viking]

Can see the angle with wanting to cover Gaelic for the Ryanair, but for me his most impressive performance to date was the Arkle and I wouldn't be in a rush to diverge from that well trodden route forward. He still has a tendency to jump right too so naturally the least amount of ground you afford him to do that the better. There's question marks over El Fabiolo now, for all it was an enormous dissappointment in the CC he did something he'd always been threatening to do and he was beaten even more comfortably than the margin suggests at Sandown.

 

[HoldenTheReins]

Can see the angle with wanting to cover Gaelic for the Ryanair, but for me his most impressive performance to date was the Arkle and I wouldn't be in a rush to diverge from that well trodden route forward. He still has a tendency to jump right too so naturally the least amount of ground you afford him to do that the better. There's question marks over El Fabiolo now, for all it was an enormous dissappointment in the CC he did something he'd always been threatening to do and he was beaten even more comfortably than the margin suggests at Sandown.

It's a good debate to have on here but like Impaire Et Passe and Ballyburn, Paul will want both rides.

So I'd say they are likely to be split.

 

[Odin]

Can see the angle with wanting to cover Gaelic for the Ryanair, but for me his most impressive performance to date was the Arkle and I wouldn't be in a rush to diverge from that well trodden route forward. He still has a tendency to jump right too so naturally the least amount of ground you afford him to do that the better. There's question marks over El Fabiolo now, for all it was an enormous dissappointment in the CC he did something he'd always been threatening to do and he was beaten even more comfortably than the margin suggests at Sandown.

I've got the double covered both ways because there's still a chance of this but imo the arguments for the El Fabiolo (QMCC), Gaelic (Ryanair) split are:

• Paul Townend will almost certainly want to ride both as HoldenTheReins says. Il Etait Temps looks like Danny Mullins ride and irrespective of the improvement that IET appears to have shown, I'd still have him a few pounds short of Gaelic and El Fabiolo. The fact that Townend has only ridden IET twice in 14 runs for Willie is also quite eye-catching for me so for now I'm willing to remove him from the equation. Energumene coming back from injury doesn't interest me either so if there's an agreement that they'd be the top 2 and Townend would want to ride them both, it's more about suitability of races.
• Completely agree that Gaelic's most impressive performance was the Arkle but I'm less worried about the tendency to jump right given how well he jumped in the Arkle. He's the more flexible of the two, but his fast jumping is tailor made for two races imo: Tingle Creek and Ryanair. Tingle Creek has the railway fences which need that fast jumping, 2m5f races at Cheltenham on the new course are made for front running fast jumpers. Look at Stage Star who I refuse to believe was a better horse than Mighty Potter but got away from the front. Likewise Protektorat who I don't think was the best horse in the Ryanair last year but was on the day because he jumped well from the front. Gaelic would be perfect for this.
• The reason I mention Gaelics suitability for the Tingle Creek and Ryanair is because El Fabiolo for the same reason probably needs to go the QMCC. His sticky jumping would put him under pressure in both races. I'm willing to forgive the Sandown run this year because he'd just clattered one at Cheltenham, probably needed to build his confidence and I (in complete hindsight) think he would have been beaten by Jonbon in that race anyway because Jonbon is such a good jumper at Sandown. It's worth noting that El Fabiolo's sticky jumping prior to Cheltenham hadn't stopped him winning every single chase before then by 4L+ and hadn't stopped him recording RPRs of 170+ on four consecutive occasions over 2m before the Cheltenham mishap, and he was given 169 for his defeat. Energumene went 170+ 7 times in 9 runs so maybe he's more of a threat than I gave him credit for, but the main argument here is that El Fabiolo needs to go QMCC as he'd have no chance in a Ryanair where you need to jump quickly and accurately. So it just seems an obvious split for a yankee if you believe Gaelic and El Fabiolo will be the two number one choices.

 

[Black Dog]

I'd argue that fast accurate jumping is more crucial over the shorter trip on the tighter track.

 

[Quevega]

I'd argue that fast accurate jumping is more crucial over the shorter trip on the tighter track.

I'd argue that there's no argument and what you've said is pretty factual.:encouragement:
Could easily be something Mullins mentions in a stable tour with a view to possibly stepping El Fab up in trip.
One obvious thing the longer trip provides for a slightly sketchy jumper is a little more time to get over any mistakes, but realistically any mistake at grade one level against good horses then you're up against it anyhow.
I think it will depend on how each horse runs before Cheltenham as to the race they compete in I reckon.
Neither offer any value as a bet right now IMO.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

It's a good debate to have on here but like Impaire Et Passe and Ballyburn, Paul will want both rides.

So I'd say they are likely to be split.

He's got Il Etait Temps too as a potential Ryanair pick.

I'm sure there will be others too as the season progresses

It would be important for Willie to get his QMCC horses sorted far more than the Ryanair, so the season will determine that.

Personally I'd be thinking GW will end up in the QMCC if all goes well. Quite possibly El Fab too,.

Particularly if he has a couple of decent ones for the Ryanair. (Il Etait Temps would be one of those as of now).

Nothing stopping us having Gaelic in the Ryanair as a fallback position type pick though

I don't think everything we've backed in prior months has been nailed on for a specific race, so this would be just another one along the way - if picked.

We've got him in the QMCC already I think

 

[Odin]

I'd argue that fast accurate jumping is more crucial over the shorter trip on the tighter track.

Normally yes, but there's an additional fence in the last mile on the New course vs the Old course which I'd argue makes the jumping more important for 2.5mile Ryanair vs the 2mile QMCC

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Nothing stopping us having Gaelic in the Ryanair as a fallback position type pick though

Worth noting that a few go NRNB from 1st Jan for championship races plus Ryanair, obviously there'll be very little value when that happens but when you're playing yankees one non runner takes out 7 of the 11 bets....

 

[Exar Essay]

It's just my opinion, but I think it's highly unlikely that Gaelic Warrior ends up in the Ryanair without his price being bigger in the interim.

Willie knows he goes well on the old chase course so why risk a change? Also, we know the record Arkle winners have in the QMCC.

The only way I see Gaelic not ending up in the QMCC is if he is soundly beaten at least once by El Fab or one of Willie's others. Even then, Willie may give him the benefit of the doubt given what happened at the DRF last year. He'd be a great 'joker' for Willie to play in case it goes wrong for El Fab again as it did this year.

If he is beaten so soundly that he ends up in the Ryanair, he'll surely be more than 7/1 at some point and we'd have more information to hand (and probably NRNB).