Ryanair 2020

[charlie]

Delsie...

You are aware that some horses haven't won at Cheltenham, then won a festival race?


Al Boum Photo
Supasundae
Dodging Bullets
Buveur D'air
Sizing John


All popped into my head in seconds.....



Min has never won at Cheltenham? So you are saying that he has BAD Cheltenham form? HE'S COME SECOND IN TWO GRADE ONES

Are you insane?!"@?!??!

Cheers Kev, saves me having to reply

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I preferred the “too hard a race at Kempton” excuse, in hindsight he was spent in that company at that trip, and running 3 weeks later probably showed that markedly.

Much prefer running under-trip preps like A Plus Tard, than too far, that’s usually the route that novices take too, step up in trip on the day that matters, don’t run over it all season. Envoi Allen has a similar profile this year.

HdB didnt think
“I have a mid-trip horse but no race over 2&1/2M, I think I will try Group 1 3M races, that will be the perfect prep for the Ryanair.” :stupid:

 

[delsie777]

"We shall see"

The best of all the arguments.

If Min doesn't win you're still wrong with the theory


Let's hope A Plus Tard wins as these are our books :encouragement:

Ryanair
Douvan EW 33/1
A Plus Tard EW 25/1
Le Richbourg 70/1


Ryanair (+1.5 pts for cashing out Footpad)
Min 19/1 2 pts and 8/1 e/w
A Plus Tard 16/1 e/w 1.5 pts
Darasso 299/1
Real Steel 20/1 1.5 pts e/w (NRNB)
Defi Du Seuil place only at Evens 3 pts (probable NR)

I also have Real Steel @ 240.0 kev - haven't updated lately. Mind you - laying off quite a bit in the last hour or so!
Good luck mate

 

[delsie777]

Cheers Kev, saves me having to reply

How many had been beaten 3 times?
Enough already! Min is a certainty - You got me - good thing! - Cheltenham ledge! Devours the hill!

 

[Kevloaf]

I also have Real Steel @ 240.0 kev - haven't updated lately. Mind you - laying off quite a bit in the last hour or so!
Good luck mate

Poor form on the aftertiming.

Not mentioned in your thread then it pops up at 240.0?



You don't need luck, you've got after timing.

I have no doubt you'll have a great festival.




Min isn't a good thing.
Min has good Cheltenham form.


If you can't accept that both those sentences are true, then I'll be considering you an idiot and it's unlikely we'll cross swords again.

 

[delsie777]

Poor form on the aftertiming.

Not mentioned in your thread then it pops up at 240.0?



You don't need luck, you've got after timing.

I have no doubt you'll have a great festival.




Min isn't a good thing.
Min has good Cheltenham form.


If you can't accept that both those sentences are true, then I'll be considering you an idiot and it's unlikely we'll cross swords again.

Idiot? Poor form for a moderator. Mentioned this morning pre race actually - all £4.71 of it.

 

[Hurricane fly]

Min hates the hill so much that he has beaten the following horse up it:

Buveur D’Air
Supersundae
Petit Mouchoir
Bellshill
Gods own
Politologue

 

[Kevloaf]

Idiot? Poor form for a moderator. Mentioned this morning pre race actually - all £4.71 of it.

So you did, sorry delsie.


I can change idiot to nincompoop, ninny, ignoramus, dunderhad, twerp, klutz if it helps:highly_amused:


You've ignored all the points I've made and came back with a sarcastic reply about him being a certainty and a sarcastic good luck.

Moderator or not, I'd still act the same way. The other moderators can strip me of the title if they like, I'll still be here and you'll still be a dipstick, I just won't be able to move posts around

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I don't think Min hates Cheltenham but is he at his best at Cheltenham?

His best performance was at Aintree last season with an RPR of 180. It's small margins at the top level and I just think Min is not at his best at Cheltenham, although he's still a very good horse and could still win this race.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Min hates the hill so much that he has beaten the following horse up it:

Buveur D’Air
Supersundae
Petit Mouchoir
Bellshill
Gods own
Politologue

Min is a very good horse, maybe better at the flat tracks IMO.

Only one of Min’s top 10 RPR’s has been at Cheltenham, which was when Altior beat him 7 lengths in 2018 (Gods Own in third) and they both got their highest ever RPRs in that race, until Min bettered his at Aintree a year later.

Min’s other two Cheltenham runs were RPR’s of 163 and 160, and it’s probably his last chance for Cheltenham Grade 1 glory this year at the age of 9. He would need to match his Festival best from 2018 to win this years Ryanair, which is possible, but I am currently betting against that.

Maybe in two weeks time, I may want him on my side.

 

[delsie777]

So you did, sorry delsie.


I can change idiot to nincompoop, ninny, ignoramus, dunderhad, twerp, klutz if it helps:highly_amused:


You've ignored all the points I've made and came back with a sarcastic reply about him being a certainty and a sarcastic good luck.

Moderator or not, I'd still act the same way. The other moderators can strip me of the title if they like, I'll still be here and you'll still be a dipstick, I just won't be able to move posts around

Wow! All the name calling reminds me of the old betfair days. Anyway, sorry to not agree with your opinion on this one. Didn't mean to upset you.

 

[Kevloaf]

I don't think Min hates Cheltenham but is he at his best at Cheltenham?

His best performance was at Aintree last season with an RPR of 180. It's small margins at the top level and I just think Min is not at his best at Cheltenham, although he's still a very good horse and could still win this race.

Min is a very good horse, maybe better at the flat tracks IMO.

Only one of Min’s top 10 RPR’s has been at Cheltenham, which was when Altior beat him 7 lengths in 2018 (Gods Own in third) and they both got their highest ever RPRs in that race, until Min bettered his at Aintree a year later.

Min’s other two Cheltenham runs were RPR’s of 163 and 160, and it’s probably his last chance for Cheltenham Grade 1 glory this year at the age of 9. He would need to match his Festival best from 2018 to win this years Ryanair, which is possible, but I am currently betting against that.

Maybe in two weeks time, I may want him on my side.

I don't think anyone is suggesting he is at his best at Cheltenham (I know I'm not).

I think thought his form is just a bit in and out. He was beaten by Simply Ned at Leopardstown.
He was beaten a neck by Politilgoue at Aintree. He also walloped Politilgoue at Aintree.

Not as straight forward as him just being a flat track bully, he's just not a top class horse.... but I don't think he'll need to be, as only Defi Du Seuil of the likely runners looks to be of a higher class so far.

 

[Kevloaf]

Wow! All the name calling reminds me of the old betfair days. Anyway, sorry to not agree with your opinion on this one. Didn't mean to upset you.

I was just enjoying different synonyms for idiot to be fair. Not heard a lot of them for ages. I don't think they're offensive but you can do what you like with your own feelings :highly_amused:


I'm not upset, but you have annoyed me. I don't like it when people make statements and then refuse to engage in the actual debate around them.

I will apologise again for the post accusing you of after timing though, as I did miss that you mentioned that beforehand on Real Steel (good bet!)


You don't need to agree, you just need to back up your statement that

You just know Min will not win at Prestbury Park - Altior or no Altior

AND

Based on 0 and 3
2nd @ 15/8
2nd @ 5/2
5th @ 7/2

I've put my case forward as to why I think your opinion is wrong..... :encouragement: that he 'hates the hill'

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I don't think anyone is suggesting he is at his best at Cheltenham (I know I'm not).

I think thought his form is just a bit in and out. He was beaten by Simply Ned at Leopardstown.
He was beaten a neck by Politilgoue at Aintree. He also walloped Politilgoue at Aintree.

Not as straight forward as him just being a flat track bully, he's just not a top class horse.... but I don't think he'll need to be, as only Defi Du Seuil of the likely runners looks to be of a higher class so far.

Agreed Kev, better elsewhere, not necessarily flatter tracks. He has form in the book that says he is a top contender, I’ve not got him in my team yet, I will see how Dublin goes before reassessing Min, among others.

 

[delsie777]

I was just enjoying different synonyms for idiot to be fair. Not heard a lot of them for ages. I don't think they're offensive but you can do what you like with your own feelings :highly_amused:


I'm not upset, but you have annoyed me. I don't like it when people make statements and then refuse to engage in the actual debate around them.

I will apologise again for the post accusing you of after timing though, as I did miss that you mentioned that beforehand on Real Steel (good bet!)


You don't need to agree, you just need to back up your statement that AND

I've put my case forward as to why I think your opinion is wrong..... :encouragement: that he 'hates the hill'

OK - to reiterate - it is simply my opinion that as much as I like Min as a horse, I think it unlikely he will be successful at Cheltenham. I think that just because he will not be facing up to his nemesis Altior, it doesn't mean he will win. I accept that he has some good Cheltenham form in the past but for whatever reason, he has yet to get his head in front.

Although Ruby has publicly stated that he got the tactics wrong last year, he was nonetheless beaten by not just Altior, but also Politilogue, Sceau Royal and Hells Kitchen. In spite of this, he goes on to hose up at Aintree a few weeks later. I conclude from this, rightly or wrongly, that he prefers to dominate on flat tracks and that he is not so effective at Prestbury Park. The undulations may be the reason but I think it is also fair to say that perhaps - perhaps the hill is not his favourite finish to a race course.

My 0 from 3 comment was simply pointing out that, however well he may have performed, he has no 'W' on his Cheltenham card. In view of that, I made the point that it very unusual for a horse to be beaten 3 times at the festival and then win. And yes 'The Fellow' fans - I know it's not unheard of.

In this year's Ryanair of course he has an excellent chance but I don't regard him as bombproof. Perhaps he will finally lay the ghost this year. He will probably get a forward ride and try and make his class tell. He may very well stay on strongly up the hill and prove me totally wrong - it has been known. On the other hand, APT could take him on and test him that way. Or they cut each other's throats and set it up for something else - I really don't know but it should be a cracker of a race. My way into the race has been to try and nick some bits of value here and there and make my call nearer the time when the final field is known. My bet on Real Steel is nice but it's win only unfortunately'. I would prefer to have an eachway position.

My 'certainty' response was only sarcasm in the face of all the other members who were taking exception to my 'Min bashing'. That was me saying - ok guys, enough! I hear you! I'm in a minority! I'm sorry - I take it all back - Min the monster is unbeatable. It was my response to all the other guys shouting 'Go on Kev! Let him have it! How dare he question Min' that's all. I was airing my opinion - that is all. They can agree or disagree but calling me an idiot for doubting one horse's credentials is just a bit... I am sure this forum is crammed with highly successful punters who have unprecedented knowledge of racing. I enjoy listening to all the opinions and debates and every now and then I like to try to contribute. That's not me saying I know better than the experts - it's just an opinion.

Perhaps Melon will win something there too.

 

[Lobos]

OK - to reiterate - it is simply my opinion that as much as I like Min as a horse, I think it unlikely he will be successful at Cheltenham. I think that just because he will not be facing up to his nemesis Altior, it doesn't mean he will win. I accept that he has some good Cheltenham form in the past but for whatever reason, he has yet to get his head in front.

Although Ruby has publicly stated that he got the tactics wrong last year, he was nonetheless beaten by not just Altior, but also Politilogue, Sceau Royal and Hells Kitchen. In spite of this, he goes on to hose up at Aintree a few weeks later. I conclude from this, rightly or wrongly, that he prefers to dominate on flat tracks and that he is not so effective at Prestbury Park. The undulations may be the reason but I think it is also fair to say that perhaps - perhaps the hill is not his favourite finish to a race course.

My 0 from 3 comment was simply pointing out that, however well he may have performed, he has no 'W' on his Cheltenham card. In view of that, I made the point that it very unusual for a horse to be beaten 3 times at the festival and then win. And yes 'The Fellow' fans - I know it's not unheard of.

In this year's Ryanair of course he has an excellent chance but I don't regard him as bombproof. Perhaps he will finally lay the ghost this year. He will probably get a forward ride and try and make his class tell. He may very well stay on strongly up the hill and prove me totally wrong - it has been known. On the other hand, APT could take him on and test him that way. Or they cut each other's throats and set it up for something else - I really don't know but it should be a cracker of a race. My way into the race has been to try and nick some bits of value here and there and make my call nearer the time when the final field is known. My bet on Real Steel is nice but it's win only unfortunately'. I would prefer to have an eachway position.

My 'certainty' response was only sarcasm in the face of all the other members who were taking exception to my 'Min bashing'. That was me saying - ok guys, enough! I hear you! I'm in a minority! I'm sorry - I take it all back - Min the monster is unbeatable. It was my response to all the other guys shouting 'Go on Kev! Let him have it! How dare he question Min' that's all. I was airing my opinion - that is all. They can agree or disagree but calling me an idiot for doubting one horse's credentials is just a bit... I am sure this forum is crammed with highly successful punters who have unprecedented knowledge of racing. I enjoy listening to all the opinions and debates and every now and then I like to try to contribute. That's not me saying I know better than the experts - it's just an opinion.

Perhaps Melon will win something there too.

Very fair. I too am not a Min fan (as everyone knows) even though that is my wife's nickname (no jokes please).

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Good post Delsie and I agree with that FWIW.

I rarely back a horse in the Gold Cup that has been beaten the previous year and I'd be reluctant to back a horse that has been to the festival three times and lost three times, especially when he is close to the head of the market.

It's a game of opinions, and plenty will disagree with me. That's part of the fun.

 

[Kevloaf]

Yeah, fair enough the majority of that is reasonable. :encouragement:

You didn't give the reasoned explanations with the statements this afternoon, which is what people are quick to jump on (myself very much included). If you'd have explained that instead of just saying "we know he won't win" it would stop that happening


On reflection, I should have said something like "what you've said is idiotic" not that you are an idiot, so I apologise for that, as they're quite different things!

 

[somer1]

Very fair. I too am not a Min fan (as everyone knows) even though that is my wife's nickname (no jokes please).

Ya wifes nickname from me is Hot lips Lobos :highly_amused:

 

[Lobos]

Yeah, fair enough the majority of that is reasonable. :encouragement:

You didn't give the reasoned explanations with the statements this afternoon, which is what people are quick to jump on (myself very much included).


On reflection, I should have said something like "what you've said is idiotic" not that you are an idiot, so I apologise for that, as they're quite different things!

Ok, that's enough, you'll be proposing to him next !