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Ryanair 2019

If Shattered Love goes for this, I will be pretty confident she can beat Min.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
I find Politologue a very difficult horse to weigh up, myself.

He has some top class form, and considering he has 5 runs without a win at Cheltenham, I would normally rule him out immediately. But a couple of those have been fair enough to make me think twice. But he just doesn't appear to quite get up the hill at the end of a Championship race and I cant quite see that changing in a Ryanair.

If the race does cut up, and Footpad goes for the QMCC and the likes of Monalee and Shattered Love go for the GC, he could well sneak a place though.

And in that scenario I think Min would be very hard to oppose even though I also share the worry about him being outstayed. He would no doubt have class to win what would be a weak enough renewal.
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You've created a scenario whereby he would have a chance, now all of them turn up, does 14's still appeal? Also, to add in to the dilemma of him turning up with a big run in the King George, which is highly likely, that he ends up in the Gold Cup instead of this race!

As my opinion is that Shattered Love & Monalee turn up alongside Min/UDS I can happily avoid Politologue.

However, I must point out, that if this was anywhere but Cheltenham I would probably be having a go at that price, but then he'd probably be shorter himself too.
 
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Scooby91 said:
This is a common view with no evidence behind it. Who's the one to beat him? The ones your thinking are likely going for gold. And he's just beat her.
Or Balko des flos? Surely not
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Shattered love would beat Min over 2m5f at Cheltenham. Monalee probably would too. Sure, they might go Gold Cup, which is why I am keeping my powder dry until the new year when we know more. Well done to those on at decent prices though, can't knock that
 
charlie said:
Shattered love would beat Min over 2m5f at Cheltenham. Monalee probably would too. Sure, they might go Gold Cup, which is why I am keeping my powder dry until the new year when we know more. Well done to those on at decent prices though, can't knock that
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I see no way that monalee beats min.
Shattered love has just been beaten off a prep fair and square, But I can see shattered love having a decent chance. But I'd be very strong on her going for the gold cup. When have they ever turned down the gold cup for a Ryanair? Especially when they have the reigning champion sat there who's no chance in a gold cup. They just run him and hope what ever miracle happened last time, happens again. I can't see shattered love going here at all. But I'll give it the benefit of doubt.
 
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Scooby91 said:
I see no way that monalee beats min.
Shattered love has just been beaten off a prep fair and square, But I can see shattered love having a decent chance. But I'd be very strong on her going for the gold cup. When have they ever turned down the gold cup for a Ryanair? Especially when they have the reigning champion sat there who's no chance in a gold cup. I can't see her going here at all. But I'll give it the benefit of doubt.
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I'd probably say never, but they sure swerved Presenting Percy with her last season!

They have RTR as their main hope, and BDF won't be winning a Ryanair for a 2nd time, so can see him being their second string the Gold Cup, that leaves the mare with her claim to have a crack at this race.
 
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Politlogue would be around 5/1. I took 20/1 but 14/1 is fine. I don't think the track is a problem.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
You've created a scenario whereby he would have a chance, now all of them turn up, does 14's still appeal? Also, to add in to the dilemma of him turning up with a big run in the King George, which is highly likely, that he ends up in the Gold Cup instead of this race!

As my opinion is that Shattered Love & Monalee turn up alongside Min/UDS I can happily avoid Politologue.

However, I must point out, that if this was anywhere but Cheltenham I would probably be having a go at that price, but then he'd probably be shorter himself too.
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Absolutely not COD. I also believe Monalee and Shattered Love will go for this race... which demotes Min to 3rd and Politologue out of the places.
 
boopa said:
Politlogue would be around 5/1. I took 20/1 but 14/1 is fine. I don't think the track is a problem.
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It does look like the track could be a thing though doesn't it ?
He's been well beat at the top level three years running and I'd imagine that's reflected in the price a little.
Politologue isn't a horse I'd back at this stage purely for that reason alone.
On the day and given a value price and lack of opposition I'd consider him as his form elsewhere is v good.
 
Scooby. I think Road To Respect is a really top class horse and will be one of the principals for the GC... I know its different trainers but I still think Gigg might be tempted to try and win two races with their best two staying chasers myself.
 
Scooby91 said:
Good luck with that.
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The joy of cash out means it won't really cost me if I have called it wrong. I'd rather back the two of them in a race I think they could win, with the fall back of getting my stake back, rather than in a race I think neither have a chance in (albeit Ive had a smaller saver on SL for the GC just because I love the horse and couldnt leave her unbacked).
 
I also think Gordon knows he cant beat Percy with SL, but the horse could win a Ryanair.
 
Shattered Love is a Gold Cup horse. They've made no secret that they wanted to go for it this year and Elliot reiterated yesterday that nothing had changed and he would train her for the Gold Cup. Besides, if you watch yesterday's race - it screams Gold Cup. They want Shattered Love to do a Dawn Run and Monalee just won't beat Min.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Absolutely not COD. I also believe Monalee and Shattered Love will go for this race... which demotes Min to 3rd and Politologue out of the places.
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You're banking on Monalee bouncing back and showing improved form. I hope he can, him + SL both need to actually run here...Fair chance at least one of them will, but Min is probably a cert to avoid Altior.
 
delsie777 said:
Shattered Love is a Gold Cup horse. They've made no secret that they wanted to go for it this year and Elliot reiterated yesterday that nothing had changed and he would train her for the Gold Cup. Besides, if you watch yesterday's race - it screams Gold Cup. They want Shattered Love to do a Dawn Run and Monalee just won't beat Min.
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Yesterday didn't scream GC to me delsie. It was a slow run 2m4f where the speedier horse who quickened up best won it.

3m2f around Cheltenham against really battle hardened stayers is a completely different ball game. The GC is normally won in the last furlong.

I know they've said all along she will be trained for the GC... Thats fair enough. Im just taking an opposing view.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Not serious, surely?

Cheltenham is one of, if not, the stiffest tracks around, check his record for the course.

Aside from his record, his own trainer has come out and said he feels he needs a 'flat' track to perform to his best, on more than one occasion.
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I meant compared to Min.
 
charlie said:
I massively respect Min and I'm not knocking his impressive return in the John Durkan, but 2m is his best trip and he will be vulnerable to others in the race over 2m5f at chelt IMO
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How much better was his second in the Champion Chase than his win in the John Durkan?
 
Proper forum splitter this one isn't it :highly_amused:

This notion that Shattered Love beats Min if they rematch in the Ryanair is being taken for granted...

If she does run here she's not certain to beat Min and reverse the form.

Min has superb Cheltenham form too, and his 2nd in the CC is better than winning a JLT isn't it?

I think Min has shown he does stay the intermediate trip now and he's in excellent hands.

If we're only taking about price then it's different, as ever!
 
Kevloaf said:
Proper forum splitter this one isn't it :highly_amused:

This notion that Shattered Love beats Min if they rematch in the Ryanair is being taken for granted...

If she does run here she's not certain to beat Min and reverse the form.

Min has superb Cheltenham form too, and his 2nd in the CC is better than winning a JLT isn't it?

I think Min has shown he does stay the intermediate trip now and he's in excellent hands.

If we're only taking about price then it's different, as ever!
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Not sure it's taken for granted, just that the pace of the race combined with a stiff finish would really help her. You could also argue it might not suit Min quite as well.

Obviously Min's CC is better than a JLT, but you can't knock a mare that's first season over fences produced a JLT win. She has to step up, but she looks as if she will be able to. Whether its the ryanair or GC who knows!
 
Before last season, Willie said that he wouldn't have a problem with Min going up in trip and I doubt that the Durkan will have changed his mind. As ever, he'll make multiple entries and make his mind up at the last minute to maximise his options.

It always surprises me when people assume that they know how 'it works' at Closutton. Patrick, Ruby and, increasingly, David Casey have their say but Willie makes the final call. Ruby's injury record would suggest that they won't go anywhere near organising the horses around his availability but there's also the complication in Ireland that they'll be doing their damnedest to get the jockeys' title for Paul.
 
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