RSA Chase 2020

[Kevloaf]

Didn't think 40-1 was a good price myself.
Not a fan of these bets generally.
Bookies love them
proper shop window stuff.

It is hard enough backing winners of one race.

I do these bets more often than I should.


LBAR for the Charlie Hall / King George was being talked up as a superb value bet 4 days ago, LBAR is now a bigger price (25/1) that she was and not winning the CH doesn't actually affect her ability to win the KG.

Anyone that fancied her at 16/1 for that, and 40.1 the double, might have to consider 25/1 is a better price.


Off topic, sorry all.



I am on Champ now at worse odds that I wanted to be, so I hope he sluices up tomorrow!:very_drunk:

 

[The King Pimm]

I’m glad Vision Des Flos is not involved tomorrow as I’m not signed up to Unibet yet and it’s gives me a bit more time to sign up to back him at 50’s without rushing my qualifying bet. I backed Champ reluctantly today just incase there is another knee jerk reaction by the bookies if he wins tomorrow. I don’t think any horse in the current RSA market should be below 10’s at this stage and even if Champ wins tomorrow a dramatic cut would be unjust given JP’s record in the race but I think with bookmakers relying and using computer software to control their markets currently then any influx of money before or immediately afterwards will cause his AP price to shrink to 4 or 5/1. I got 8/1 but still think that’s harsh.

 

[jonthehammer]

Personally wouldn't back VDF with counterfeit whatever the price, not up to it, doesn't win enough races but good luck to those on him at a big price.

I am not a massive Champ fan either but I have no idea why. Cannot put my finger on it

 

[The King Pimm]

Champ hadn’t done anything wrong but my gut feeling is that he will always be competing but only making up the places in the big races. I hope I’m wrong as I would like to see JP have a genuine gold cup horse to compete with after a few near misses and disappointments and I do love the name Champ and hope he lives up to the expectation

 

[JackieMoon33]

Whilst I have every respect for Champ, just not his price, I’d personally not be too keen on VdF even at 50’s. Whilst the step up in trip might eek out some improvement, he’s won 2 out of 15 hurdles starts and that’s not ideal. It also looks like a decent race this year and I’d rather go with the novice hurdlers that are going chasing as there seems to be enough depth there.

If you’re building a book though then it’s probably wise to back VdF.

 

[Scooby91]

Personally wouldn't back VDF with counterfeit whatever the price, not up to it, doesn't win enough races but good luck to those on him at a big price.

I am not a massive Champ fan either but I have no idea why. Cannot put my finger on it

I'm assuming that reserve tank will be declared for wincanton, and VDF will wait and go for the (Steel Plate And Sections) at chelt, which white moon went for, but if it's the other way round. Id be confident VDF will win at wincanton.

 

[Scooby91]

Yes fair enough scooby... he is a 50/1 poke as you say.

Slightly disappointed with that field for Newbury. Champ should win with his head in his chest

Before he runs, What's the general consensus on the field champ takes on today?

Looks a solid opener to me, hed' have a huge rating for winning on the bridle. Its deffinately not a samcro scenario. So it's some expectation thinking he should win with his head in his chest . He may well do, but i cant think of anything in the RSA market that I'd expect them them to do so in today's field.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Before he runs, What's the general consensus on the field champ takes on today?

Looks a solid opener to me, hed' have a huge rating for winning on the bridle. Its deffinately not a samcro scenario. So it's some expectation thinking he should win with his head in his chest . He may well do, but i cant think of anything in the RSA market that I'd expect them them to do so in today's field.

It's a decent enough race for his debut but it's hard to know how tuned up the other debutantes will be. Beakstown has a run under his belt and will probably prove to be the best yardstick in the race as the season progresses. Champ should dispatch these easily enough but the manner of his victory (winning on the bridle or getting up on the line) would not really change my opinion of him as there is a long way to go and plenty more horses to make their debuts.

 

[Morley Street]

Before he runs, What's the general consensus on the field champ takes on today?

Looks a solid opener to me, hed' have a huge rating for winning on the bridle. Its deffinately not a samcro scenario. So it's some expectation thinking he should win with his head in his chest . He may well do, but i cant think of anything in the RSA market that I'd expect them them to do so in today's field.

Agree Scoob, looks a fair test to me. Beakstown ran well against Sam Spinner, who has franked the form since in good fashion. With race fitness on his side he will put up a good test. The rest of the field also contains some useful types IMO who could easily improve for a fence. I’d be very happy if he won with his head in his chest and should he do so, feel he would go very short for this.

 

[The King Pimm]

It looks a really good race. I’m interested in seeing how Dashel Drasher performs, he’s been put up as a talented horse to follow this season so if he takes well to fences he will give Champ a solid test.

 

[jono]

It looks a really good race. I’m interested in seeing how Dashel Drasher performs, he’s been put up as a talented horse to follow this season so if he takes well to fences he will give Champ a solid test.

He's the one who I think will give Champ most to think about today. Though you'd worry that the trainer has said he hasn't looked a natural over a fence, albeit his last hit of work showed improvement. Beakstown sets a fair level but he'll need to improve again even with the fitness edge.
Can see an educational Ride on Champ today. First couple of runs over fences especially today will I imagine be all about getting him to settle into a nice rhythm.
Nothing too flashy but if he jumps like his schooling video suggested recently putting in a nice round of jumping and winning by a couple of lengths.

 

[Craigy14]

Definitely a fairly tough start Beakstown does set a good standard already, if Champ prevails his price will collapse even further. I’ve unfortunately not got champ onside but I definitely want to, really like the horse a lot. Just a bit short at between 8-10/1 and missed the earlier better prices. From a selfish point of view I am hoping for a good run and possibly just be beaten by the race fit Beakstown which would mean he may drift to a little more attractive price to back although 12/1 would probably be best we would get unless he runs similar to Delta did and pushed 5/6 points.

 

[Lobos]

Anyone not on Champ, I'd suggest doing TWAR with Hills @ 7/1.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I think its one of those occasions where if you are on him for the RSA you will take loads of positives if he wins nicely. If you aren't a backer, you will just say he was expected to win. Ultimately he's 1-2 for a reason. He's taking on 140 odd rated horses and if he is justified fav for the RSA he should be dispatching them with ease.

I think 8/1 is a very poor price in what looks to me to be the deepest novice race of the Festival this season and if he wins today 4/1 or 5/1 will be laughable! Ultimately he fell short in his biggest test so far and was beaten fair and square by a better horse in City Island. I know we can look at horses like Denman who lost a Ballymore but still went to the very top over fences, but I dont think Champ is the same type of horse. He hurdled very nicely, and is quite a speedy horse. He is quite keen and just doesn't look your perfect RSA type to me. I still think the JLT would suit him better.

On a line through Lisnagar Oscar there doesn't look to be a great deal between the likes of Minella Indo, Allaho and Champ. I prefer the first two to make better staying chasers myself and that's before you even consider the likes of Carefully Selected, Next Destination and plenty more.

 

[The King Pimm]

He’s too short at 7/1, he should be that price after impressing today and not beforehand. He’s an unproven novice probably being aimed at one of the toughest races in the Festival. I’ll probably involve him in some doubles if he does well today but will wait and see how he gets on.

 

[Scooby91]

I think its one of those occasions where if you are on him for the RSA you will take loads of positives if he wins nicely. If you aren't a backer, you will just say he was expected to win. Ultimately he's 1-2 for a reason. He's taking on 140 odd rated horses and if he is justified fav for the RSA he should be dispatching them with ease.

I think 8/1 is a very poor price in what looks to me to be the deepest novice race of the Festival this season and if he wins today 4/1 or 5/1 will be laughable! Ultimately he fell short in his biggest test so far and was beaten fair and square by a better horse in City Island. I know we can look at horses like Denman who lost a Ballymore but still went to the very top over fences, but I dont think Champ is the same type of horse. He hurdled very nicely, and is quite a speedy horse. He is quite keen and just doesn't look your perfect RSA type to me. I still think the JLT would suit him better.

On a line through Lisnagar Oscar there doesn't look to be a great deal between the likes of Minella Indo, Allaho and Champ. I prefer the first two to make better staying chasers myself and that's before you even consider the likes of Carefully Selected, Next Destination and plenty more.

I'm sure your steaming in today at 4/6 then ? If it's all that easy a race.


Battleoverdoyen was pretty workmanlike, against absolutely nothing. His only opposition at all, fell. And cut to 12s 14s. And was deemed a brilliant run on here..

How would you deem champs race compared to battleoverdoyen's ? Before it goes off.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Very rarely back odds on Scooby. Evs is generally my minimum.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Ultimately he fell short in his biggest test so far and was beaten fair and square by a better horse in City Island. I know we can look at horses like Denman who lost a Ballymore but still went to the very top over fences, but I dont think Champ is the same type of horse. He hurdled very nicely, and is quite a speedy horse. He is quite keen and just doesn't look your perfect RSA type to me. I still think the JLT would suit him better.

Was't just Denman though, who didn't quite hit the top over hurdles and went on to win an RSA though, was it?

Might Bite, Blaklion & Topofthegame were not exactly stars over hurdles. Presenting Percy and Don Poli were better over hurdles that the three previously mentioned, but I think it just shows that what they do over hurdles is irrelevant when it comes to chasing and this race in particular.

 

[charlie]

I'm sure your steaming in today at 4/6 then ? If it's all that easy a race.


Battleoverdoyen was pretty workmanlike, against absolutely nothing. His only opposition at all, fell. And cut to 12s 14s. And was deemed a brilliant run on here.

How would you deem champs race compared to battleoverdoyen's ? Before it goes off.

Tbf I think the BOD price was too big anyway before he even raced so was always gonna be clipped. I was very happy with BOD but this is without question a deeper debut over fences for champ. Im not champs biggest fan but I’m going to Newbury specifically to watch him today so perhaps il come back mind changed. He’s in the book now so I hope he does well and I have lump doubled him with Floressa in the mares race because she’s a good thing as well. I hope Beakstown gets his jumping together and gives him something to think about

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I'm sure your steaming in today at 4/6 then ? If it's all that easy a race.


Battleoverdoyen was pretty workmanlike, against absolutely nothing. His only opposition at all, fell. And cut to 12s 14s. And was deemed a brilliant run on here..

How would you deem champs race compared to battleoverdoyen's ? Before it goes off.

As I posted at the time Scooby, I wasnt tempted enough by the 25/1 on BOD initally, so I certainly couldnt back him at anything lower on the basis of that run. I agree his price afterwards was daft. I know there were excuses for him at the Festival last year, but it was bad enough to put me off for now.

Purely because Galvin fell, Id say today's race has more depth to it than BOD's. But Id fancy Galvin to be better than anything Champ is facing today.