RSA Chase 2020

[Captain Chris]

I'll be interested to follow champ's price for the GC next year as there is a chance it'll drift out, like delta work this year.

Reason for thinking this is where will he run?? He jumps left handed and has been kept to left handed tracks for a fair while now.

I could see him in the Charlie Hall, but not sure if that's a bit early in the season for Hendo to get a big gun out. He seems to like the graduation chases, but Carlisle and Sandown are RH.

Can't see champ wanting a slog in the haydock mud so that would rule out the betfair chase. Maybe the Hennessy? But I'm not sure that a big field handicap would see his jumping in best light. King George is RH and Hendo doesn't seem keen to send anything to Ireland, where he'd be up against most of the best GC horses (kemboy, MI, Allaho, delta work etc.)

It's a long wait for the cotswold / denman chase.

What route do you guys see him taking?

 

[Kevloaf]

Loving these right ups Kev and at the prices of the front 3 I'd be with Minella Indo for the Gold Cup next year. Think the mistake at the last cost him and he got going again when Champ went past. I wouldn't rule Champ out but I don't think he could win a Gold Cup jumping as scruffily as he did this season. Agree 100% on Allaho he's my idea of the Ryanair winner right now.

Thanks, quite enjoying doing them. It is the first time I've watched them back and it's been enjoyable. Done for today though, too sunny to carry on haha.

His jumping did cost him more than it did the others.... I see people have suggested he'll be having intensive schooling with Henrietta Knight, so very interesting to see if that gets confirmed and works?!

Minella and Allaho got racing far too early and that ultimately cost them both imo. With a more conservative ride I think MI would have won and won well.

It's a great race to watch back and still pains me, even though I had the envoi /champ ante post double.

That was my gut feeling at the time. Having watched it back though I think Allaho just didn't stay. There clearly isn't a lot between Champ and Minella Indo whichever way you cut it down. Minella Indo has beaten Allaho 3 from 3 now, so if they ever met again I wouldn't expect a change in result either...

I have to say, I like Minella Indo and Champ for next year now... not enough to back either yet but I like them more than I did straight after the race!

 

[Kevloaf]

I'll be interested to follow champ's price for the GC next year as there is a chance it'll drift out, like delta work this year.

Reason for thinking this is where will he run?? He jumps left handed and has been kept to left handed tracks for a fair while now.

I could see him in the Charlie Hall, but not sure if that's a bit early in the season for Hendo to get a big gun out. He seems to like the graduation chases, but Carlisle and Sandown are RH.

Can't see champ wanting a slog in the haydock mud so that would rule out the betfair chase. Maybe the Hennessy? But I'm not sure that a big field handicap would see his jumping in best light. King George is RH and Hendo doesn't seem keen to send anything to Ireland, where he'd be up against most of the best GC horses (kemboy, MI, Allaho, delta work etc.)

It's a long wait for the cotswold / denman chase.

What route do you guys see him taking?

Very optimistic to hope he drifts, I hope you're right, but I doubt it! Too high profile now for the bookies to give an inch. He was only ever as big as 12/1 for the RSA wasn't he?

I don't think Henderson will be pitching him in deep water, so wouldn't expect the Hennessy to be on the agenda. I don't think he'll send him to Haydock, but not because it's a slog... it'll be because of the experience with Might Bite. For a horse with jumping issues, those stiff fences would blow his mind... Henderson would bleat on about that for months too.

Right handed wouldn't/isn't an issue is it? He's run at Kempton and Ascot before, 2nd both times, then won right handed on his next start? I don't think they see going right handed as an issue enough to mean they have to wait until 2021 to get a run into him.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

The Colin Parker Memorial at Carlisle would be a good starting point. Yes it's right handed but Carlisle is (statistically) easiest track to jump round and always a small field.

 

[Outlaw]

Right handed wouldn't/isn't an issue is it? He's run at Kempton and Ascot before, 2nd both times, then won right handed on his next start? I don't think they see going right handed as an issue enough to mean they have to wait until 2021 to get a run into him.

They can send him RH but would be a bit of an issue given he has jumped left in all his Chase starts to date. Its an easy trap to see a horse has won at a course and to say as if it's a positive imo.Kempton run was a bumper,no chance to show those tendencies & the RH win at 1/14 he was 30lbs clear of those lot. His class gets him through most things but at the top table it's very tough to rely on engine alone. Fascinating to see where he goes and what Henerietta can iron out.

 

[Kevloaf]

They can send him RH but would be a bit of an issue given he has jumped left in all his Chase starts to date. Its an easy trap to see a horse has won at a course and to say as if it's a positive imo.Kempton run was a bumper,no chance to show those tendencies & the RH win at 1/14 he was 30lbs clear of those lot. His class gets him through most things but at the top table it's very tough to rely on engine alone. Fascinating to see where he goes and what Henerietta can iron out.

According the the link you sent me, he jumped left at 3 of 19 fences.

Has Henderson mentioned ever he thinks he needs to go one way round over the other?

The notion he won't be tried right handed is not based on any facts, or any opinions from anyone involved with the horse?


Altior jumps slightly to the left doesn't he? He's won plenty of races at Ascot and Sandown. Looking for problems that don't exist.

I'd have put him odds on to run at Haydock if they've 'softened' the fences enough for Nicky to be happy :highly_amused:

 

[Outlaw]

I think you mean right handed
The link i passed on you was merely for you to breakdown the run in time you wanted an angle on,look at all his chase starts to date and there is evidence of the left handed bias, i didn't say he jumps left at every fence!
I'm not saying he can't go Rh, just it would appear it's not his optimum configuration based on what he has done to date chasing.

Mentioning Altior who tends to be clear all his rivals he faces seems an illogical comparison, he could race on a different track to most of his rivals and with one of us fat jockeys on and still win.Unless you feel Champ is potentially well clear of the horses he faces next season and his engine continues to get him through.

Tell you where else has very difficult fences these days is Wetherby, went up to watch Sam spinner both times there this season and even thou he was clumsy they are very stiff and unforgiving. Previously had seen Gino trial produce an exemplary round of jumping few winters ago and admire the ever green old boy even more.

 

[Kevloaf]

You are suggesting though that he may avoid going right handed because of the bias?

Every horse would have a prefence to one track/course over another? Champ has just won an RSA, which is the best piece of 3 mile chase form we've seen from a novice this season. It's not illogical to suggest he's good enough to win going right handed based on that.

I don't think he needs to be 'well clear' to win right handed.


Do you believe if the RSA had been run at Kempton or Ascot he'd have lost?

It's definitely possible... but hardly bad form and I don't think you could make a strong case for it.


Until Henderson says they're scared to go right handed I feel it's a waste if time pondering.


Not been to Wetherby, should have gone to watch Cue Card

 

[Captain Chris]

Fair points, Kev. I think you're right in that he probably isn't going to drift at all due to the name/connections no matter what happens.

I don't think that he'll avoid going right handed, but, in my mind, he won't be as effective that way round. Maybe I'm reading too much into him being kept to left handed tracks since going chasing, but I first noticed the left jumping tendency at Newbury. Possibly my memories of the Dipper/RSA are selective to confirm my initial thoughts.

I can definitely see FM's suggestion of going to Carlisle and then possibly on to the King George. I'll definitely be taking him on there if that's the case. I think the left handed jumping around a speed track like Kempton will not see him perform anywhere near his best. I'd also say, in answer to your question, that I don't think he'd have won the RSA if it had been at either Ascot or Kempton (not that we'll ever find out).

If he were mine (and I'm sure that I'd have completely ruined him by now!), I'd like to see him go for the Lexus chase -or whatever name it is now.

Thanks for all the replies though. It's giving us something to do in these sparse times! Very much enjoying the write ups too, Kev. I rewatched all the festival races a couple of weeks back, but I think it was still too soon for some of them. That Friday was particularly brutal.

 

[The King Pimm]

I think some of you are underestimating the improvement Henrietta Knights team will bring to Champs jumping and confidence. I think it’s a very smart move of Henderson to send Champ to her with no obvious target set and lots of time to practice. I think Champ will come on again next season. Henderson is such a brilliant trainer, look at the improvement in Santini during the second half of this season. I think Champ will have 2-3 races before a crack at the Gold Cup but they’ll school him a lot during the season. I’m not backing him at his current prices but a horse I’ll be covering when the time is right, he is the kind of horse that does need it all to click but when it does he’ll be hard to beat coming up the Cheltenham Hill.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran in the King George at Kempton. The field tends be small these days which will suit champ, 6-8 runners, lots of space. It’s right handed but a galloping track so his tendency to jump to the left wont be a major issue if Barry keeps him wide and out of danger until they get around the final bend to let him go.

 

[Kevloaf]

Fair points, Kev. I think you're right in that he probably isn't going to drift at all due to the name/connections no matter what happens.

I don't think that he'll avoid going right handed, but, in my mind, he won't be as effective that way round. Maybe I'm reading too much into him being kept to left handed tracks since going chasing, but I first noticed the left jumping tendency at Newbury. Possibly my memories of the Dipper/RSA are selective to confirm my initial thoughts.

I can definitely see FM's suggestion of going to Carlisle and then possibly on to the King George. I'll definitely be taking him on there if that's the case. I think the left handed jumping around a speed track like Kempton will not see him perform anywhere near his best. I'd also say, in answer to your question, that I don't think he'd have won the RSA if it had been at either Ascot or Kempton (not that we'll ever find out).

If he were mine (and I'm sure that I'd have completely ruined him by now!), I'd like to see him go for the Lexus chase -or whatever name it is now.

Thanks for all the replies though. It's giving us something to do in these sparse times! Very much enjoying the write ups too, Kev. I rewatched all the festival races a couple of weeks back, but I think it was still too soon for some of them. That Friday was particularly brutal.

Hendo did run Bob's Worth at Leopardstown a couple of times didn't he, so maybe that'll be where he ends up.

He hasn't training Champ in the same way as any of his previous successful 3 mile chasers (running in the Dipper and not tried over 3m over fences before the RSA isn't something he's done before) so perhaps looking at previous patterns isn't going to help us with Champ!

I don't think he'd have won at Ascot or Kempton either FWIW but that may be a rose-tinted view that Minella Indo and Allaho are better, which I thought beforehand but can't really cling onto now.

:encouragement: About to re-watch Thursday. iI haven't been mentioning how the races panned out for me personally as I'll do that elsewhere so it doesn't clog it up with irrelevant nonsense but I can't say I'm looking forward to the back end of Friday too much :highly_amused:

 

[Outlaw]

You are suggesting though that he may avoid going right handed because of the bias?

Every horse would have a prefence to one track/course over another? Champ has just won an RSA, which is the best piece of 3 mile chase form we've seen from a novice this season. It's not illogical to suggest he's good enough to win going right handed based on that.

I don't think he needs to be 'well clear' to win right handed.


Do you believe if the RSA had been run at Kempton or Ascot he'd have lost?

It's definitely possible... but hardly bad form and I don't think you could make a strong case for it.


Until Henderson says they're scared to go right handed I feel it's a waste if time pondering.


Not been to Wetherby, should have gone to watch Cue Card

No more the fact i would be taking him on Rh depending on the opponents obviously, do i think he would have won if it had been at Kempton no i don't and i will take him on if he goes for a King George no doubt. Ascot i wouldn't of either thou would have more of a chance there than Kempton if pushed, similar to what Chris has eluded too and yourself i feel we all have meet middle ground at last:highly_amused:
I think waiting for a trainer to state a preference (yes he clearly knows the horse better than me) gains v.little thou as it will reflect in the price going forward. Similar to when a trainer nominates a target for a horse the price changes but doesn't stop plenty of us guessing/forming an opinion before the trainer says anything.

Thursday kicks off with a treat the finish of the week so will be pleasant viewing:encouragement:

 

[Kevloaf]

I definitely wouldn't be against Champ in the King George just based on the way round it is, but that depends on how they price it.

Just checked and 11/2 Clan Des Obeaux, Champ is 2nd fav at 10/1.


If I knew Champ was running I'd chance 10/1 but purely because I'm adamanet he'd be shorter.

If I had to have a win bet it'd be Clan Des Obeaux despite being 'alf price.