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RSA Chase 2020

charlie said:
The right odds for a couple of free bets. That could be said for any ante post bet tbf.
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Normally you’re just trying to guess one target. In this case you’re trying to predict that Champ will also take in a particular trial too without any form of indication from the trainer. Although Champ only has one (maybe 2 targets) at Cheltenham, he has a vast number of potential prep races en route.
 
charlie said:
Skybet have Champ @ 40/1 for Kauto Star/RSA double in case anyone is interested. I want to get him in the book this seems the ideal opportunity to do so with a couple of free bets and 1pt staked.
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I like Champ a lot and I think there is every chance Hendo will use the Kauto Star as a prep, so have taken some of the 40s BUT, it’s a horrible stat to overcome... Feltham / KS winners just don’t go on to win the RSA.
 
Morley Street said:
I like Champ a lot and I think there is every chance Hendo will use the Kauto Star as a prep, so have taken some of the 40s BUT, it’s a horrible stat to overcome... Feltham / KS winners just don’t go on to win the RSA.
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They don't, but the likes of Long Run and Coneygree have won the race so I would take some comfort that top class staying types can gain 3m wins around a flat Kempton....
 
Morley Street said:
I like Champ a lot and I think there is every chance Hendo will use the Kauto Star as a prep, so have taken some of the 40s BUT, it’s a horrible stat to overcome... Feltham / KS winners just don’t go on to win the RSA.
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So if a horse wins the Feltham/KS are we to rule out and if so on what basis?

Might Bite would have bolted up when he fell at the last went on to win the RSA.
Coneygree won the Feltham and went on to win the Gold cup.

Blindly ruling out horses for winning the race seems a very quick way to the poor house.
 
billymag said:
So if a horse wins the Feltham/KS are we to rule out and if so on what basis?

Might Bite would have bolted up when he fell at the last went on to win the RSA.
Coneygree won the Feltham and went on to win the Gold cup.

Blindly ruling out horses for winning the race seems a very quick way to the poor house.
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As I said Billy, I have put money on it so clearly I have not ruled it out. I am also not a big stats player in any case, just saying it is one of the strongest festival ones that I know of to overcome :highly_amused:
 
lol but its nonsense and just an anomaly. Your bet on Champ looks a decent bet, I wouldnt let that "stat" put you off pal. Good luck
 
Stats/trends are crucial in many, not all, events, trends create a profile of what it takes to win a particular race but that’s not to say you can simply dismiss everything that doesn’t fit that profile as trends are broken all the time.
5yo never win champion hurdles but Espoir D’Allen bust that last year, whether that was because he was an exceptional horse or whether it was a poor renewal or whether Buveur D’Air falling and the issues his fall created is open for debate, but there’s no doubt trends are useful component to consider when betting.

Red Rum was probably the best staying chaser of modern times, but he would never win a Gold Cup, Grand National, Scottish National and Whitbread in the space of 6 weeks, so opposing horses who are unfortunate enough to have connections stupid enough to ever consider this is sound....
 
Istabraq said:
Stats/trends are crucial in many, not all, events, trends create a profile of what it takes to win a particular race but that’s not to say you can simply dismiss everything that doesn’t fit that profile as trends are broken all the time.
5yo never win champion hurdles but Espoir D’Allen bust that last year, whether that was because he was an exceptional horse or whether it was a poor renewal or whether Buveur D’Air falling and the issues his fall created is open for debate, but there’s no doubt trends are useful component to consider when betting.

Red Rum was probably the best staying chaser of modern times, but he would never win a Gold Cup, Grand National, Scottish National and Whitbread in the space of 6 weeks, so opposing horses who are unfortunate enough to have connections stupid enough to ever consider this is sound....
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Don’t disagree Ista but 5 year olds do occasionally win the CHurdle... Katchit, See You Then? But Feltham winners never win the RSA, just saying :highly_amused::highly_amused:
 
Morley Street said:
Don’t disagree Ista but 5 year olds do occasionally win the CHurdle... Katchit, See You Then? But Feltham winners never win the RSA, just saying :highly_amused::highly_amused:
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Trabolgan was a nostril off winning the Feltham and then won the RSA. Had he won the Feltham by a nose are you honestly saying he couldn't have won that seasons RSA.

Might Bite another good example.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Trabolgan was a nostril off winning the Feltham and then won the RSA. Had he won the Feltham by a nose are you honestly saying he couldn't have won that seasons RSA.

Might Bite another good example.
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Think you misunderstand me... if I honesty thought that the double couldn’t be done then I wouldn’t have placed the bet on Champ. All I am saying is that it has never been done and there’s a lot of very decent animals and short priced RSA favs who have come up short over the years.
 
Theres no 12/1 or even 10/1 on champ left any more. Will e interesting to see if vision des flos is declared, as hes absolutely no mug, imo he's tizzards 1st string for the RSA . So champ has it all to do tomorrow, a victory would seemingly see champ no bigger than 11/2. Vision des flos himself would tumble to around 12s 14s. Both maybe a little fresh and keen 1sf time up this season.
 
Vision Des Flo is 50/1 with Unibet and 25/1 with 365 for anyone interested
Not for me as don’t see VDF a Cheltenham horse but could be decent ew punt at 50/1
 
Humble Pie said:
Vision Des Flo is 50/1 with Unibet and 25/1 with 365 for anyone interested
Not for me as don’t see VDF a Cheltenham horse but could be decent ew punt at 50/1
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I think the 50s is way too big. He may be a little gassy tomorrow, same with champ. But more pace on, in a proper race and I personally think VDF is a very good horse now hes learned how to settle, (when running at a championship pace)

Imo he'd have won the punchestown stayers if he hadn't have clattered the last. Even if VDF doesn't win tomorrow, I deffinately wouldnt rule him out, i think he'll get better as he goes along.
 
Scooby91 said:
I think the 50s is way too big. He may be a little gassy tomorrow, same with champ. But more pace on, in a proper race and I personally think VDF is a very good horse now hes learned how to settle, (when running at a championship pace)

Imo he'd have won the punchestown stayers if he hadn't have clattered the last. Even if VDF doesn't win tomorrow, I deffinately wouldnt rule him out, i think he'll get better as he goes along.
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I'd have a serious question mark about his course form though scooby. Performed badly every time he has turned up at Cheltenham and would be enough to put me off him in what looks like it will be a very strong renewal.
 
I like VDF but see him as more of a JLT type personally don't think he'd stay 3 miles round Cheltenham.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
I'd have a serious question mark about his course form though scooby. Performed badly every time he has turned up at Cheltenham and would be enough to put me off him in what looks like it will be a very strong renewal.
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I deffinately would agree. It's well factored into his price though, hes a 50/1 shot.

I'm thinking he wont run at chelt beforehand, can take a big scalp on the way. They're obviously going to throw him in the race at chelt in that scenario. And then is the time to worry about that.

Obviously can debate all this, he clatters a few fences and goes back over hurdles. But it's just one iv had in mind for a good while. And just so happens to be likely taking on my main fancy tomorrow. On the off chance, he could beat him.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
I'd have a serious question mark about his course form though scooby. Performed badly every time he has turned up at Cheltenham and would be enough to put me off him in what looks like it will be a very strong renewal.
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Totally agree. Course form around Cheltenham especially is an absolute must. In 4 attempts there he has only beaten 20 horses out of 53. Stick that line through him and have another pick would be my advice.
 
Lobos said:
Totally agree. Course form around Cheltenham especially is an absolute must. In 4 attempts there he has only beaten 20 horses out of 53. Stick that line through him and have another pick would be my advice.
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Happy backing my own judgement.

I never tip or reccomend anyone else to back anything, that I have.
VDF is just one im personally willing to take a chance on at 50s.
 
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