Now this RSA thread is up and running....personally, I'm in the minority that think Samcro will end up in this race.
To my mind, Gigginstown are working backwards from the Gold Cup 2020. (I think thats fair to say and don't think anyone disagrees?) If he stayed over hurdles then obviously I'm a million miles off, but I can't see it!
After Cheltenhan I thought the RSA was by far and away the most likely target, and do have to admit that ending up in the Arkle or the JLT is not as unlikely as I thought it was.
However, he's shortest for the JLT and that just doesn't sit right with me. Part of the reason he's shortest for the JLPT, is because the JLT is always likely to be the weakest of the novice chases at Cheltenham. It doesn't hold the prestige of an Arkle or RSA. That might sound stupid but I don't think it can be discounted - you only need to look at Colin Tizzard's campaigning of Finian's Oscar to see where the novice chases stack up in terms of importance to people in the game. To use a possbily more relevant example, Don Poli was put in the RSA over the NH Chase because Gigginstown don't care about the NH Chase. Now that race is 4th in the pecking order of prestige, with the RSA and Arkle ahead, and then the JLT.
Now Samcro is shortest for the JLT of all 4 of the novice events (and we'll class it as 3 events from now on as there is zero percent change he would run in the NH Chase) and that doesn't quite sit right with me. The best horse to ever win the JLT was without a doubt Vautour. He went on to win a Ryanair over course and distance. He got outstayed in a King George but was obviously a magnificent horse. Yorkhill and Black Hercules turned to mush after the race (perhaps the trends fans will start saying that the JLT bottoms horses with enough time to pass). Sir Des Champs won the race when Gigginstown were still with Mullins and he was a very good horse too. That year though, they had First Liutenant who came 2nd to Bobs Worth in the RSA (Bob's worth funnily enough the horse to beat Sir Des Champs in the Gold Cup the year after). Now time may have shown Sir Des Champs to be a better horse than First Liuetenant - however going IN to Cheltenham 2012 First Liutenant was rated 6lbs superior to Sir Des Champs backing up my theory that their BEST HORSE runs in the RSA. Another example would be the public switching of Don Poli to the RSA when the trainer wanted to run him in the 4 miler. WInning over the Ballymore trip seems to be the 'lazy' guide to where he'll run in my opinion. For some horses and operations I'd go along with it, but 4/1 for Gigginstown, absolutely not for me!
I also have to acknowledge they won the race with Shattered Love this year, however, she's a mare... and O'Leary is quite outspoken with his views on mares and I don't think her winning the race makes a difference to how they'll campaign their most exciting horse in years.
I can't rule out the Arkle. I want to, I just can't. They've had a Gold Cup winner (War of Attrition) run in the Arkle, although he did come 7th which isn't as strong a trend as I've seen made out in the racing media as a solid reason as to why they'd go that route with Samcro. However, they've said "he's got the pace for 2m" so many times that you can't ignore it - because of the prestige of the race it is definitely a consideration. We do know Mengli Khan is going chasing and will be going over 2 miles, and although I know they weren't moving Samcro to avoid Menglhi Khan, MK still placed in the Supreme on ground that didn't suit and was a G1 novice hurdle winner. As opposed to the other potential Gigginstown chasers, for all that I like Delta Work and Blow By Blow, they were HANDICAP winners, not novice hurdle festival winners, and we'd be foolish to over-rate them. If we're UPGRADING the potential RSA Gigginstown horses because they're going chasing, surely we allow the same for Samcro, and nobody at all would think BBB or DW was a better hurdler than Samcro, and therefore, they aren't better horses...so whether they're suited to the RSA or not, Samcro is different class.
The way Samcro is able to look like he's not in top gear yet still be travelling at such pace is special and until I know he's not going for this race, I don't want to be getting TOO excited about anything else. I think Samcro will take to fences incredibly with his P2P background and he wasn't exactly 'slick' over his hurdles. He doesn't hurdle like a Champion Hurdler at this stage so there is genuine reason to believe he'd be BETTER over fences. If he is better over fences than he is over hurdles, then he'd win at any trip and the 3 mile 'test' won't look like a test for him. The way he cruises, I can't see a horse taking him out of his comfort zone, even though I am very excited about Santini and Topofthegame, they'd need to improve some way to leap ahead of SAmcro in terms of ability.
All of this is before we see Samcro jump a fence, and for that reason you'd be brave and foolish to go to wild on him in any of these races.... but a double figure price about the race I feel is most likely for connections is tempting all the same!
