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RSA Chase 2018

I can't have any Alan King horse at the festival in a grade 1 to be honest.

I was massively impressed with Yanworth on trials day during his novice season, he disappointed at the festival.

Last year he was workman like but we kept hearing how Cheltenham was going to bring huge improvement, not the case again.

King has 5 winners at the festival in the last 9 years, 1 grade 1 winner, Uxizandre, which was a fantastic ride by A.P.

His horses in general seem very inconsistent the last few years.

The stayers thread is full of people stating Supasundae isn't a great stayer yet, he was only a neck behind Yanworth at Aintree. Couple this with the fact that 3m at Cheltenham and Aintree are very different things and Yanworth's jumping so far and he's a big negative for me.
 
Folski said:
I can't have any Alan King horse at the festival in a grade 1 to be honest.

I was massively impressed with Yanworth on trials day during his novice season, he disappointed at the festival.

Last year he was workman like but we kept hearing how Cheltenham was going to bring huge improvement, not the case again.

King has 5 winners at the festival in the last 9 years, 1 grade 1 winner, Uxizandre, which was a fantastic ride by A.P.

His horses in general seem very inconsistent the last few years.

The stayers thread is full of people stating Supasundae isn't a great stayer yet, he was only a neck behind Yanworth at Aintree. Couple this with the fact that 3m at Cheltenham and Aintree are very different things and Yanworth's jumping so far and he's a big negative for me.
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I see it completely differently. Yanworth never does much in front but is as hardy as they come, if played late enough in a truly run race over 3 miles I think he'll see it out better than most. He was better value than for his 1 length win over Supasundae at Aintree imo as he was sent to the front far too early. His form last time out at cheltenham has been underplayed if anything, yes he was in receipt of 5lb from Willoughby Court but he beat him comfortably enough
 
The more I look at this race the sweeter I am on Fountains Windfall.

Jumping is a concern with both falls in the the John Francome Novices' Chase and Kauto Star Novices' Chase coming in quick succession, but having watched those races back both are clumsy mistakes on landing and coming away from the fence, as opposed to jumping the fence poorly. I am convinced that he had them beat in the Kauto Star Novices' Chase four out, and was travelling so well before coming down.

Anthony Honeyball is having a brilliant season and I think with a good round of jumping FW will be hard to beat.
 
I feel the most overpriced horse in the race now is Shattered Love, given the trainer has confirmed this as her target race only this weekend just gone, and even if you feel it's a risk to back her on the back of her trainers comments you can still get 12/1 NRNB, for a horse whose form is stacking up very well, oh and also has the beating of the current race favourite already this season, which makes no sense to me, given the price difference :very_drunk:

I feel she has slipped under the radar quite a bit, given the amount of talk about other Giggs/Elliott horses.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I feel the most overpriced horse in the race now is Shattered Love, given the trainer has confirmed this as her target race only this weekend just gone, and even if you feel it's a risk to back her on the back of her trainers comments you can still get 12/1 NRNB, for a horse whose form is stacking up very well, oh and also has the beating of the current race favourite already this season, which makes no sense to me, given the price difference :very_drunk:

I feel she has slipped under the radar quite a bit, given the amount of talk about other Giggs/Elliott horses.
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Negatives would be her run at Cheltenham last season and I don't agree her form is stacking up well

12/15 in the Neptune last year, so would have a slight concern she didn't like the track?

Her form isn't that good? She's won 2 mares chases that aren't worth anything, then got beaten by Jury Duty (who's been beaten since) and then won another mares chase... before reversing the form with Jury Duty. Jury Duty wouldn't be close in an RSA for me, so although I don't think it is a bad bet, at the price, I can see why people could over look it?
 
Kevloaf said:
Negatives would be her run at Cheltenham last season and I don't agree her form is stacking up well

12/15 in the Neptune last year, so would have a slight concern she didn't like the track?

Her form isn't that good? She's won 2 mares chases that aren't worth anything, then got beaten by Jury Duty (who's been beaten since) and then won another mares chase... before reversing the form with Jury Duty. Jury Duty wouldn't be close in an RSA for me, so although I don't think it is a bad bet, at the price, I can see why people could over look it?
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In comparison to the PP price she is by far and away the bet for me, she has finished 12 lengths ahead of him this season already and wouldn't put it past her doing it again.

Agree, her Cheltenham form was not great, but going into that race she had never gone beyond 2m 2f anyway, let alone at a tough track like Cheltenham, think it would be unfair to judge her course form on that one particular run, and the fact she has now won over 3m, for me, means the distance is not an issue. She seems to act on all 'Going's' too which won't hinder her.
 
Is Monalee an intended runner in the flogas does anyone know?
 
Folski said:
I can't have any Alan King horse at the festival in a grade 1 to be honest.
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THIS!

Every year, his horse fail to deliver. I've had enough after I was waiting for a sizable return on Yanworth for the Neptune. Remember seeing a trend for King horses, thought Yanworth would break it... obviously not!

Yanworth can't jump, I hope money comes in for him for this or the JLT... gives us more value elsewhere
 
charlie said:
The more I look at this race the sweeter I am on Fountains Windfall.

Jumping is a concern with both falls in the the John Francome Novices' Chase and Kauto Star Novices' Chase coming in quick succession, but having watched those races back both are clumsy mistakes on landing and coming away from the fence, as opposed to jumping the fence poorly. I am convinced that he had them beat in the Kauto Star Novices' Chase four out, and was travelling so well before coming down.

Anthony Honeyball is having a brilliant season and I think with a good round of jumping FW will be hard to beat.
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Entered in the Scilly's Chase, which is a horrendous race for RSA bound horses.
Classy horse, but as you mention, jumping is a concern especially around cheltenham and at the festival where they will be going at a clip and putting him under pressure. I wouldnt be backing it
 
charlie said:
The more I look at this race the sweeter I am on Fountains Windfall.

Jumping is a concern with both falls in the the John Francome Novices' Chase and Kauto Star Novices' Chase coming in quick succession, but having watched those races back both are clumsy mistakes on landing and coming away from the fence, as opposed to jumping the fence poorly. I am convinced that he had them beat in the Kauto Star Novices' Chase four out, and was travelling so well before coming down.

Anthony Honeyball is having a brilliant season and I think with a good round of jumping FW will be hard to beat.
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I was just watching FW races back again yesterday and his jumping doesn't really concern me. He has a big engine and is a very uncompleted ride. I think he'll give PP plenty to think about.
 
opatcho said:
Entered in the Scilly's Chase, which is a horrendous race for RSA bound horses.
Classy horse, but as you mention, jumping is a concern especially around cheltenham and at the festival where they will be going at a clip and putting him under pressure. I wouldnt be backing it
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Three horses have gone Scilly's Chase to RSA (Punchestowns, Silverburn and Patricksnineteenth) and not won, so I don't think there is much we can draw from that.
 
IO drifting badly for this race on Betfair. I'm officially worried :(
 
Can't Catch Me said:
IO drifting badly for this race on Betfair. I'm officially worried :(
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I just still haven't covered him to go the JLT route.

I saw he was priced up at bigger than Al Boum for the Flogas too, maybe he isn't a runner in that?
 
Monalee


He’s entered in the Flogas Novice Chase at Leopardstown on Sunday and the intention is to run. He got a horrible fall and then a good kicking at Leopardstown last time, but he’s seems OK now, so hopefully he’ll acquit himself well.
 
Scooby91 said:
Monalee


He’s entered in the Flogas Novice Chase at Leopardstown on Sunday and the intention is to run. He got a horrible fall and then a good kicking at Leopardstown last time, but he’s seems OK now, so hopefully he’ll acquit himself well.
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Here is hoping
 
Scooby91 said:
Monalee


He’s entered in the Flogas Novice Chase at Leopardstown on Sunday and the intention is to run. He got a horrible fall and then a good kicking at Leopardstown last time, but he’s seems OK now, so hopefully he’ll acquit himself well.
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The Flogas looks a hot little race if the current market favourites go to post. Think 7/2 about Monalee is decent value. Hopefully they go a good gallop and it will be a informative contest.
 
SeanRock said:
The Flogas looks a hot little race if the current market favourites go to post. Think 7/2 about Monalee is decent value. Hopefully they go a good gallop and it will be a informative contest.
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It's a good race
I wouldnt be suprised at all if the jlt and rsa winners are currently entered. If anyone covers them nrnb bog you won't go far wrong.
 
Covers which horses? There are 11 horses entered, surely your not suggesting to place 22 bets on the Flogas runners in the hope that they win at Cheltenham?
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Covers which horses? There are 11 horses entered, surely your not suggesting to place 22 bets on the Flogas runners in the hope that they win at Cheltenham?
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Theres obvious ones that aren't going to run. And some that have little chance


Monalee.
Sutton place
The story teller
Alboum photo.

If anyone had enough budget to back with 365 nrnb bog
All ew
The storyteller
Monalee
Alboum photo
Sutton place
I'd expect to come out of the race in a very strong position.
 
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