The one for Royal Ascot that I’m most interested in is
Passenger (Prince of Wales)
Already close to good enough to win the race (3.5lb off the Average race winning RPRs in the last decade) on his 4yo seasonal debut at Chester.
That was a lifetime best by 8lbs from his curtailed 3yo career of 4 lifetime starts, including an “unfortunate” close 3rd in the Dante on his 2nd run, unplaced in the Derby and a final run in a Windsor Group 3 race win, beating a horse who went on to lose by a head, in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2 months later) - to the eventual Melbourne Cup winner.
So an unfulfilled potential season, for Passenger, like his sire Ulysses, who incidentally
* also ran unplaced in the Derby,
* and was 2nd in that Windsor Group 3 race,
* for the same trainer, Sir Michael Stoute,
* before blossoming as a 4yo,
into a horse that
* won his prep for the Prince of Wales,
* before coming 3rd in it,
* winning the Eclipse and Juddmonte International at the trip, and
* placed in the King George and Arc, at his two goes at 1M4F
in a wonderfully consistent run through the whole season.
Im hoping that Passenger can have such a sparking season as his sire, and his 4yo debut already has a higher lifetime RPR than his sire started out with in the POW, so he’s ahead of the curve a.t.m.
The other one Ive had an interest in, but is probably less likely to make the start, unless he won well under a penalty at York on Friday is
Tower of London (Ascot Gold Cup)
Another 4yo improving already from a decent 3yo career, by winning highly valuable and competitive Grade 3 and Grade 2 races, and banking gbp 1.6M along the way.
In my opinion AOB has had a nightmare start to Group 1 races and classics this season, and the plan to go one-handed into Newmarkets 1000 and 2000 Guineas, and to not prep horses before it, proved to be an unwise one.
Hes spoken since of potentially going with TOL and Kyprios to the Ascot Gold Cup, which makes much more sense to me if they both win this week.
Kyprios had a star 4yo stating season, but when winning the Ascot Gold Cup it wasn’t by much, (1/2L from Mojo Star, with Burning Victory only 1L back in 4th).
He earned his big figure at the end of that season on very Soft Ground on Arc Day, which was much bigger than he’s done elsewhere, before or since, so he could be underpriced, and may be vulnerable to a younger upcoming horse.
Thats why a win at York under a penalty, should mean, all things being equal, TOL becomes a live chance
That York race he’s giving 3lbs to Vauban, Gregory, Hamish, Al Qareem and Giovelotto, and if he could do that then it would, in my view, match or most likely beat, what Kyprios did in his Ascot Gold Cup win 2 years ago, with his 120 RPR that day - when he was an improving 4yo.
