A couple of ‘what ifs’ on day 1 for me with Accidental Agent winning at 33/1 in the opener. I had said he would run on for a place and was a solid each way play. Unfortunately, I didn’t have a penny on him. Without Parole did win for me though whilst we may have also seen the rising of a superstar in Calyx who looked magnificent in the parade ring, brilliant in the race and superb afterwards. He looks special. On to day two now and my NAP of the meeting runs in Chelsea Cloisters. Trackside scenes if she wins…
2:30 – Queen Mary (Group 2)
Day two kicks off with a bang for me as my biggest bet of the week goes in the race for two year old fillies. CHELSEA CLOISTERS (NAP @ 11/4) goes for Wesley Ward and America as the trainer hunts for his third win in four years in the race. The comments about her being as ‘good as any Queen Mary filly we’ve brought over’ is both eye-opening and extraordinary. Ward’s two recent winners in this were both top class and in leagues of their own. If Chelsea Cloisters is as good as those two, it will take a good one to beat her. The use of Lasix on American juveniles is rumoured to be why they develop quicker than European youngsters but it is legal and should be used to our betting advantage. Her debut win looked very impressive on the eye and Ward will have her laid out for this race. . I am on at 5/1 and am very hopeful of a big performance. Shades Of Blue is likely the biggest danger as she’s beaten several of these over course and distance with a blistering turn of foot and could be smart. So Perfect represents a top yard but has to overturn form with Servalan which isn’t a given. The unknown filly that has come into the race completely under the radar is the unbeaten Forever In Dreams. She has been brought over from France for this which would’ve been because connections have confidence that she could pick up some prize money. She’s an interesting contender in a lively opener for day two.
3:05 – Queen’s Vase (Group 2)
Stradivarius won this last year before going onto bigger things and is expected to run a huge race in Thursday’s Gold Cup. Effectively, it is a trial for the St Leger with so many an unknown over this trip. Stream In Stars broke his maiden here last month with a good performance but will need to improve again against some hardy group level performers for Aiden O’Brien. His battalion of Nelson, Southern France and KEW GARDENS (11/4) is going to prove tough to beat with the former showing top class form at his best. Southern France clearly has more to come after a couple of comfortable wins but his lack of experience is against him for a gruelling race of this nature. O’Brien has stated his concerns in that department and stable jockey Ryan Moore clearly agrees as he’s chosen Kew Gardens. The current market leader ran his best race when getting good ground and a decent gallop which he will get here and the dour stayer of the race could grind them down here. It’s a very hard race to call but I will side with the experienced, but somewhat paceless, type to get the win in this group two contest. I have also had an each way play here on ALMOGHARED (16/1 e/w 4 places) who finished his race off in tremendous style last time. He has a similar profile to both Southern France and Stream of Stars and yet is four times the price. With Skybet paying four places, I made him a value each way bet. After what happened with Accidental Agent yesterday, I will definitely be following my own advice this time.
3:40 – Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2)
HYDRANGEA (7/4) is a very big price here in my opinion. I had no bet antepost on the race but when I saw the market earlier this week and she was confirmed for this, I expected her to be just about odds on. She’s a group 1 winner at this track and also won a hot race at the same level over today’s trip back in Ireland last season. She will be spot on for her reappearance when only managing second and has the strongest form by a distance over this field. If turning up, she should win this comfortably and I’ve had a decent bet at her current price of 7/4. Wilamina won for me at Epsom recently when stealing a march on her rivals but this will be tougher whilst Tomyris is inconsistent but talented. Arabian Hope will need to be spot on for the race on her seasonal reappearance but has shown glimpses of magic at her best. Urban Fox won a decent handicap over course and distance last month but will have to improve again to trouble the favourite. I honestly believe that if the favourite runs to her form, she won’t be troubled here and can comfortably overcome her 5lb penalty she concedes in the race.
4:20 – Prince Of Wales’ Stakes (Group 1)
It’s Cracksman time! The best colt on the planet takes centre stage here as he looks to replicate his astonishing demolition job over course and distance on Champions Day last year on soft ground. Could he be vulnerable here? With the ground firm and the drop back in distance from his last run, I won’t be one of many lumping on him here. He apparently bumped his head on the stalls at Epsom and once again struggled on the descent round Tattenham Corner and this more conventional track will suit him far better. However, he needed every yard of that race and the drop in trip back to 1m 2f, on this ground, worries me a tad. If coping with the ground, he will surely win. For that basis, he’s in my daily multiples across the card. As a single bet on the race, I’ve played CLIFFS OF MOHER (12/1) to cause an upset at big odds. The O’Brien colt was just outstayed by his stablemate in the Derby over 1m 4f last season when nabbed on the line and this is probably his optimum distance. Lancaster Bomber got the run of the race in the Tattersalls Gold Cup to beat the selection but my horse ran with credit that day and he will enjoy this track and trip. If Cracksman doesn’t pick up quickly again like at Epsom, could Cliffs of Moher have already flown? I fully expect Cracksman to be in full stride at the line but I am hopeful the O’Brien inmate will have already gone far enough clear by that point for it to matter. Hawkbill ran terribly in the aforementioned Coronation Cup behind Cracksman and it’s hard to back him to overturn that form with any confidence. Eminent’s run at Chester was even worse and I’ve never been a fan of his anyway. In all honestly, I wouldn’t back Martyn Meade’s charge for this with counterfeit. Poet’s Word is a three time runner up at the top level and is respected but is probably too short. Desert Encounter and Royal Julius will need a miracle to beat this field.
5:00 – Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap)
This 32 runner cavalry charge up the straight mile at Ascot is an equine sight to behold. One of the best and richest handicaps of the season looks as difficult as ever with plenty in with obvious chances. The Queen’s horse Seniority goes in search of a hat-trick this season and has snuck in at the bottom of the weights. Since his participation was confirmed, he’s been all the rage with punters and is the current market leader. Afaak did me a turn last time at York and likes these fast ground big field handicaps whilst Saltonstall could be the proverbial group horse in a handicap – though the ground is a slight concern. KEYZER SOZE (12/1) ran a truly awful race at this meeting last year in a similar contest but has improved markedly since then. He’s very talented on his day but is still prone to the occasional mental blip as seen when he fluffed the start last time before flying home in taking fashion over 7f here. The step back up to a mile is sure to suit and if keeping calm in the prelims and at the start, looks the one to beat. Zhui Feng won this last year off the front and nearly held them off again last time in the Victoria Cup – expect a repeat of those tactics again here. Master Merion has Ryan Moore on board but the US raider is an unknown quantity in British water. GABRIAL (25/1 e/w 7 places) is as consistent a horse as you will find and I’m baffled that Skybet, going 7 places on this race, would have him at that price. He was runners up in a group three last time which shows he’s still going strong aged 9 and must go close here off 9st 5lb.
5:35 – Jersey Stakes (Group 3)
A wide open finale to end day two with only two of the 24 runners at single digit figures in the betting – Emaraaty and Could It Be Love. The former cost a whopping 2.6 million Guineas but has had his troubles. There clearly is some talent there though and he could just be too good if finally living up to his potential. The latter has the best form of this field with a brilliant second in the Irish 1000 Guineas when so nearly stealing the race off the front before being pegged back late. Expert Eye is seriously talented but is impossible to back with any confidence with his tendancy to pull too keenly and losing all chance in the first half mile of his races. Headway was a close second in last year’s Coventry at this meeting and won on the all-weather when finishing strongly over this trip. He was then outclassed in the 2000 Guineas but could go close here. James Garfield is solid but will likely find something improving past him. Society Power will finish fast under Jamie Spencer but only narrowly beat Emaraaty last time when receiving 10lbs and they run off levels today which makes it far harder. Purser is a 7f specialist with four wins from five attempts at this distance and has a touch of class whilst Tabdeed and Walk In The Sun are thrown in at the deep end on just his third start – which is still one more than Arabian Coast who frankly could be anything based on his scintillating debut success. Brother Bear is a tad overpriced back on his favoured ground and Hemp Hemp Hooray runs for the USA. Instead the speculative nod goes to GLORIOUS JOURNEY (33/1 e/w 5 places) at a massive price and five places with Paddy Power. He won both starts in his two year old campaign – including a group 3 – before running a stinker on his seasonal reappearance. He looked far sharper when third in his final start to date when behind the subsequent French Derby runner up and fourth. That form puts him bang in this and the stiff mile on his favoured ground makes him set t run a massive race.
Bets:
2:30 – CHELSEA CLOISTERS (NAP) @ 5/1 (antepost) & 11/4
3:05 – KEW GARDENS (11/4) & ALMOGHARED @ 16/1 (e/w 4 places)
3:40 – HYDRANGEA @ 7/4
4:20 – CLIFFS OF MOHER @ 12/1 (& Cracksman in multiples @ 4/6)
5:00 – KEYZER SOZE @ 12/1 & GABRIAL @ 25/1 (e/w 7 places)
5:35 – GLORIOUS JOURNEY @ 33/1 (e/w 5 places)