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Related Bets (ideas)

Benjy23 said:
Potentially a lazy one this but was Sir Gerhard running in the Ballymore all that different? CPS didn't have a runner in the Supreme... I guess jockey wise they don't have a retained rider but Townend would still want to ride both, if IEP looked to have a real shot (he'd still get the choice on M&S owned Mullins trained as far as I'm aware).
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I'd say that situation was different yes, Sir Gerhard wasn't a clear fav for the Supreme - he was always shorter for the Ballymore from early on .... and that again assumes Paul Townend has as big a say as Ruby used to, which I don't believe.

After watching IEP, you couldn't say he's a standout either...


The way I see it, very clearly, is Facile Vega goes Supreme and others will slot in around that.

I won't be debating it any more or hedging on FV in the Ballymore myself..... if I'm wrong, I'll live with it - won't be the first time and I don't think there are any really obvious angles to profit from a switcharoo anyway
 
Kevloaf said:
I'm a bit surprised anyone thinks Facile Vega will go anywhere but the Supreme.

The problem with IEP being 'the' replacement is that he does have a retained jockey too, so they could easily both run in the Supreme.

therefore they're not related enough to make it appealing for me .... but low risk high reward so best of luck
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Willie will run two or three in the Supreme and in the Ballymore.
I don’t think I’ve backed another trainers horse in those two races.

He could have a 1-2-3 in one of them, and a 1-2 in the other,

Not sure anyone knows which goes where, yet, he most likely hasn’t decided. 100-percent yet.

I’d guess FV Supreme, and Impaire Supreme too - they’re running and winning the races that his Supreme horses normally run in, and he doesn’t have a Constitution Hill this year to worry about - like when he sent Sir G to the Ballymore for an easier chance.

Ballymore yet to sort itself out for Willie, and the other trainers don’t seem to have much that can run above 150 RPR.

Gaelic Warrior hopefully runs this midweek, maybe Thursday over 2M4F, they’d learn more now, re his stamina and breeding suggesting that’s an obvious route to try.

……Now they know Impaire can travel and skip over the jumps at 2M, time to try Gaelic over the mid trip.

Indiana Dream also needs another outing at the mid trip, he could come into it, or maybe the A.Bartlett.

Loads of options for Willie.
 
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We are all thinking of course that FV wins comfortably over 2 at DRF. That may not happen and then what ? There are plenty of so called experts out there that are yet to be convinced by Vega based on his two runs so far. All still to be decided.
 
Lobos said:
We are all thinking of course that FV wins comfortably over 2 at DRF. That may not happen and then what ? There are plenty of so called experts out there that are yet to be convinced by Vega based on his two runs so far. All still to be decided.
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It definitely isn't done and dusted with Facile Vega - Supreme, thats for sure.

If Vega wins convincingly at the DRF then you'd like to think that will swing it towards the supreme, but we won't know for certain until the Sunday before :watermelon:

FWIW - at the start of the season, the owners had 1 race in mind for FV, and Willie had the other in mind for him. :teapot:
 
FWIW - at the start of the season, the owners had 1 race in mind for FV, and Willie had the other in mind for him.
...... very interesting.
 
Lobos said:
FWIW - at the start of the season, the owners had 1 race in mind for FV, and Willie had the other in mind for him.
...... very interesting.
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Be surprised now if connections of FV would want him shifting to Ballymore now to make way in the Supreme. It’s shoot for the moon stuff they way the connections go on and I think IEP is bit too nice to be 2nd string to FV at 2m.

IEP had a lovely run in France over a mile and half, travel handily and showed a good proper turn of foot which would give a nod to that shorter distance. On his Irish runs he looks to travel at speed really well again, and you’d suspect siting behind a few more over a longer gallop for the Ballymore would be no problem at all either.

Trying to plot Mullins novice hurdlers over the 3 races is still a mind field, would split them on quality over distance below

2m - 2m5f
Tier 1: Facile Vega, Impaire Ent Passe, Champ Kiely
Tier 2: Gaelic Warrior, Dark Raven, Il Etait Temps
Tier 3: Hunters Yarn, Parmenion, Mercurey

2m5f+ - 3m
Tier 2: Spanish Harlem, GCW
Tier 3: Quais De Paris, Indiana Dream


Could possible see 1 more of those in the Tier 2 group at 2m - 2m5f to take a step forward. Same with Spanish Harlem he’s had 1 run quite early on shortly after coming to the yard could see him being a Tier 1 horse at the greater distance a division where at the moment Willie is lacking compared to the other category, QDP too has also alot more to give.

Probably missing a few obvious or dark ones but he has at least 4 maybe 5 prospect what I’d consider in Tier 1 to place.
 
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darlojim said:
FWIW - at the start of the season, the owners had 1 race in mind for FV, and Willie had the other in mind for him. :teapot:
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Yup. I heard that too. Owners said he was being aimed for the Ballymore in November.
 
Exar Essay said:
Yup. I heard that too. Owners said he was being aimed for the Ballymore in November.
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Im sure someone on here who connections with the owners said they had been told the aim was the Ballymore but can't remember who but defo read it on here.
 
HesTheOne said:
Trying to plot Mullins novice hurdlers over the 3 races is still a mind field, would split them on quality over distance below

2m - 2m5f
Tier 1: Facile Vega, Impaire Ent Passe, Champ Kiely
Tier 2: Gaelic Warrior, Dark Raven, Il Etait Temps
Tier 3: Hunters Yarn, Parmenion, Mercurey

2m5f+ - 3m
Tier 2: Spanish Harlem, GCW
Tier 3: Quais De Paris, Indiana Dream
.
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This is what I think...

Tier 1: Facile Vega, Dark Raven
Tier 2: Impaire Ent Passe, Champ Kiely
________________________________

Tier 3: Gaelic Warrior, Il Etait Temps
Tier 4: Pointless taking about them

Impaire Ent Passe is a decent horse, and has scope to improve, but I still believe Mullins runs his best horses at the DRF. Sir Gerhard was DRF, and I had him above Dysart in terms of having proven form, and appears to be a easier race horse to get one with.

FV is tier 1, and then we have Dark Raven who's declared for the same 2 miler at the DRF. I take that as "thats Mullin's 1 and 2". Mullin's entered El Fab with Sir G for the DRF, didnt turn out. Now, some will argue that DD is/was better than El Fab... but my point is, El Fab went onto run a huge race at Aintree. which points towards Mullins aiming his better ones to the DRF

What better way to decide where his better ones run at the fez, by running what may be his best two horses in the same race at the DRF
No different when it comes to the Arkle, Willie has used the DRF to work out who's his best one. Throw all of the top hopefuls into the same race, the winner is Paul's number one for the fez

Mullins Bingo at its best..
 
opatcho said:
This is what I think...

Tier 1: Facile Vega, Dark Raven
Tier 2: Impaire Ent Passe, Champ Kiely
________________________________

Tier 3: Gaelic Warrior, Il Etait Temps
Tier 4: Pointless taking about them

Impaire Ent Passe is a decent horse, and has scope to improve, but I still believe Mullins runs his best horses at the DRF. Sir Gerhard was DRF, and I had him above Dysart in terms of having proven form, and appears to be a easier race horse to get one with.

FV is tier 1, and then we have Dark Raven who's declared for the same 2 miler at the DRF.
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None of them have been declared yet and he has 8 entered in the race, so are they all tier 1 based on them being entered?
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
None of them have been declared yet and he has 8 entered in the race, so are they all tier 1 based on them being entered?
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I'll dig this post back up when they are declare....
The point doesnt change, spend a long time and posted a fair bit of detail in my diary about the likes of IEB and Dark Raven. Declared or not, as it stands, that how I tier them
 
opatcho said:
I'll dig this post back up when they are declare....
The point doesnt change, spend a long time and posted a fair bit of detail in my diary about the likes of IEB and Dark Raven. Declared or not, as it stands, that how I tier them
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That wasn't my point though. As it stands he has 8 entered, not just FV & Dark Raven. FWIW I think both FV & Dark Raven will be declared, among others.

I think it's likely he declares 3, maybe 4 for the race.
​I'd Imagine Impaire Et Passe won't be one of them though.

Also, I read your diary post, and can see you put in a fair bit of time and effort into it and respect your opinion :encouragement:
 
opatcho said:
I'll dig this post back up when they are declare....
The point doesnt change, spend a long time and posted a fair bit of detail in my diary about the likes of IEB and Dark Raven. Declared or not, as it stands, that how I tier them
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There's an article on the Sporting Life website about Mullins novice hurdlers - Dark Raven doesn't get a mention and some of his shit ones do.
 
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DenmanSacre said:
There's an article on the Sporting Life website about Mullins novice hurdlers - Dark Raven doesn't get a mention and some of his shit ones do.
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To be fair though, that’s just someone rolling off Willie’s novices and expressing where they think they might go. No interviews or ITK stuff, and doesn’t come across as anymore more informed or better thought out than a lot of posts on here.
 
opatcho said:
LOL... so, you saying Dark Raven is worse than shit tier. Is shit tier higher or lower than the Hunters Chase, because thats proper shite
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I've said multiple times on here I'm a big fan of Dark Raven.
Just highlighting the article as he's going under the radar while QDP, Hunters Yarn and Indiana Dream get a mention.

For me, FV would be tier 1 on his own, and tier 2 would be Dark Raven, IEP, Champ Kiely and Gaelic Warrior and I'd re-analyse them after the DRF. The tier 2 horses for me could run in the Supreme or Ballymore and not be surprised winners of either race.
 
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Exar Essay said:
To be fair though, that’s just someone rolling off Willie’s novices and expressing where they think they might go. No interviews or ITK stuff, and doesn’t come across as anymore more informed or better thought out than a lot of posts on here.
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Just highlighting it to show he's fairly under the radar for a lot of people, despite winning a good maiden. Others mentioned on it have won worse maidens.
 
If it’s logical to assume they’d be kept apart, provided Dark Raven proved good enough to run at the festivalI id have him being the much more likely to go out in distance then IEP. I was surprised he didn’t at least get a entry in the longer race at the DRF given his breeding
 
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