Related Bets (ideas)

[Exar Essay]

Henry has reiterated that he doesn't think he lacks pace, but that's it, and I've made the assumption based on the other two being around also.

It's a weak argument and probably a silly thing to do, but he was ahead of Three Stripe Life when he fell in the Ballymore and TSL was very much a firm favourite on here for the Turners and then the BANC. Journey With Me ran his race in the Ballymore and went from the front after the fourth, and indeed increased the tempo of the race, so I do think he has it in him to run a decent race in the Turners, over slightly shorter than the Ballymore trip and maybe be even better on better ground if we actually get it.

I've just watched the Ballymore back. I must say, JWM faired far better than I recall. I had him beaten all ends up by the front two, but watching it back, I don't think it beyond the realms that he would've finished second (although it was a tired fall). Although TSL passes him, he then stay with him before falling.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I've just watched the Ballymore back. I must say, JWM faired far better than I recall. I had him beaten all ends up by the front two, but watching it back, I don't think it beyond the realms that he would've finished second (although it was a tired fall). Although TSL passes him, he then stay with him before falling.

Remember it well EE, and had exactly the same opinion at the time, which is why I backed him for the BANC, but I spent most of last season backing him for the A Bartlett and I could easily get his 2023 target wrong.
Another thing about the fall, I was up close to that and it appeared his front right leg slid on landing which at the time is what I thought created the fall.
He's always looked a stayer to me, sadly HDB has always thought different !

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I've just watched the Ballymore back. I must say, JWM faired far better than I recall. I had him beaten all ends up by the front two, but watching it back, I don't think it beyond the realms that he would've finished second (although it was a tired fall). Although TSL passes him, he then stay with him before falling.

Yeah, and to think that was on fairly dire ground as well. He had a tired fall on chase debut on heavy ground as well. I feel like he tries doing too much too early, so hopefully he can learn as the season progresses. He won well last time out though, given the pace they seemed to go.

 

[riccirich]

Henry has reiterated that he doesn't think he lacks pace, but that's it, and I've made the assumption based on the other two being around also.

It's a weak argument and probably a silly thing to do, but he was ahead of Three Stripe Life when he fell in the Ballymore and TSL was very much a firm favourite on here for the Turners and then the BANC. Journey With Me ran his race in the Ballymore and went from the front after the fourth, and indeed increased the tempo of the race, so I do think he has it in him to run a decent race in the Turners, over slightly shorter than the Ballymore trip and maybe be even better on better ground if we actually get it.

Yeah I heard those quotes but was just wondering if something more definite had been said.

I think they've always said he handles soft ground very well and were actually worried about running him on better ground, so I would have thought 2m 5f in the ballymore on soft/heavy would be more up his street than 2m 3f on what chances are will be good to soft, yet he was still being comprehensively brushed aside by sir g who was doing everything wrong himself. You could argue that fences will narrow the gap but while he was good lto, he doesnt look to have turned into sprinter sacre over them.

I think theyd be realistically hoping for a lot of luck on the day to win the turners, all things being equal I think whatever mullins sends and probably mighty potter too will just be too quick for him, the banc looks like his race 100% so hopefully robcour just run two against each other.

 

[CJW]

Please talk me out of a related double with Facile Vega in the ballymore..

I can't be the only one looking at his odds for that race and wondering if the switcharoo will happen :cower:

 

[Benjy23]

Please talk me out of a related double with Facile Vega in the ballymore..

I can't be the only one looking at his odds for that race and wondering if the switcharoo will happen :cower:

I'm fairly certain he runs in (and wins) the Supreme. So it's not for me...

But the 12/1 for the Ballymore with Sky is them taking a very bold antepost position, and way out of line with most. Rate that from them, which I don't say often! I was going to say you'd be better playing on the exchanges but if you've got access to Sky then doubling one or two in the Supreme probably is your play.

 

[Lobos]

Please talk me out of a related double with Facile Vega in the ballymore..

I can't be the only one looking at his odds for that race and wondering if the switcharoo will happen :cower:

The only way he switches would be if he gets beat for pace at the DRF. He could still go straight there in which case he's only going to go Supreme.

 

[HesTheOne]

Please talk me out of a related double with Facile Vega in the ballymore..

I can't be the only one looking at his odds for that race and wondering if the switcharoo will happen :cower:

I’ve had a couple of these in my basket so to speak but haven’t pulled the trigger :biggrin-new:

he looks nailed on 100% for the supreme but how much has to go ‘not to plan’ for that to change..? Maybe not as much as we may suspect at the minute.

the lads who play the exchange on here got some fancy prices when he got his first big push out, pretty sure 20s and 30s was secured by some of the snipers

 

[CJW]

Have him in the book for any race and supreme but having flashbacks discussing Moscow flyer entries at length last year.

I'm confident its still undecided as to where he goes, probably because it's still fresh in the memory from last year of how wrong I was with Sir Gerhard and Dysart dynamo...

i just keep looking at his odds for the Ballymore... and one related double would have to IEP, as he has the entry..

Running out of time lol:dejection:

 

[Exar Essay]

Have him in the book for any race and supreme but having flashbacks discussing Moscow flyer entries at length last year.

I'm confident its still undecided as to where he goes, probably because it's still fresh in the memory from last year of how wrong I was with Sir Gerhard and Dysart dynamo...

i just keep looking at his odds for the Ballymore... and one related double would have to IEP, as he has the entry..

Running out of time lol:dejection:

I know it’s traditionally a Supreme trial for Mullins, but given the date of IEP’s debut (20 Dec) is there another graded novice race he could even feasibly run in? Bar Dublin which is probably too late.

 

[Many Clouds]

Please talk me out of a related double with Facile Vega in the ballymore..

I can't be the only one looking at his odds for that race and wondering if the switcharoo will happen :cower:

Bought my entry ticket to the Mullins bingo last night, done the Impaire Et Passe (S) Facile Vega (B) double, 142/1 on skybet on 109/1 on the sports book with a chance to cash out with any news, doesn't cost a lot at them odds for a bit of piece of mind and to potentially be well ahead of the game.
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95% sure it's going to be a waste but for the 5% chance they do the old switcheroo if IEP smashes it tomorrow its worth a small stab. The only reason they switch is if IEP is so good over 2 miles and they think FV can win either race and in that scenario the double probably goes off at anywhere between 5 to 8/1 maybe shorter.

I have definitely wasted points on much more terrible bets in the past so I'm not too fussed to lose this couple of points on something which could potentially pay off handsomely and make me look a real smarty pants.

 

[Stormez]

Bought my entry ticket to the Mullins bingo last night, done the Impaire Et Passe (S) Facile Vega (B) double, 142/1 on skybet on 109/1 on the sports book with a chance to cash out with any news, doesn't cost a lot at them odds for a bit of piece of mind and to potentially be well ahead of the game.
​​​​​​
95% sure it's going to be a waste but for the 5% chance they do the old switcheroo if IEP smashes it tomorrow its worth a small stab. The only reason they switch is if IEP is so good over 2 miles and they think FV can win either race and in that scenario the double probably goes off at anywhere between 5 to 8/1 maybe shorter.

I have definitely wasted points on much more terrible bets in the past so I'm not too fussed to lose this couple of points on something which could potentially pay off handsomely and make me look a real smarty pants.

I agree it’s worth a point or so to find, think I’ll join you. Stranger things have happened!

 

[CJW]

Please talk me out of a related double with Facile Vega in the ballymore..

I can't be the only one looking at his odds for that race and wondering if the switcharoo will happen :cower:

I just did it and I feel dirty...

 

[Benjy23]

I'm fairly certain he runs in (and wins) the Supreme. So it's not for me...

But the 12/1 for the Ballymore with Sky is them taking a very bold antepost position, and way out of line with most. Rate that from them, which I don't say often! I was going to say you'd be better playing on the exchanges but if you've got access to Sky then doubling one or two in the Supreme probably is your play.

I see Sky cut FV into 10s earlier.. Enough to put me off again :welcoming:

 

[Kevloaf]

I'm a bit surprised anyone thinks Facile Vega will go anywhere but the Supreme.

The problem with IEP being 'the' replacement is that he does have a retained jockey too, so they could easily both run in the Supreme.

therefore they're not related enough to make it appealing for me .... but low risk high reward so best of luck

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I just did it and I feel dirty...

The market suggested the decision to go Supreme was made some time ago, personally I always thought FV would be better over further but the stupid short Supreme prices seemed to confirm I was once again wrong.
However, since then they seem keen on taking Gaelic Warrior to the Betfair Hurdle and if if he wins that it will presumably put him firmly in the Supreme picture which could easily push FV to the Ballymore, Mullins doesn't shy away from having multiple darts at a race so it's not impossible they both head to the Supreme but I guess much of that depends on how close they think Champ Kiely will go in a Ballymore.
Right now no-one knows, but your bet is not without hope...

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm a bit surprised anyone thinks Facile Vega will go anywhere but the Supreme.

The problem with IEP being 'the' replacement is that he does have a retained jockey too, so they could easily both run in the Supreme.

therefore they're not related enough to make it appealing for me .... but low risk high reward so best of luck

I think Dark Raven will play the Blue Lord roll in the Supreme for the double green tbh. Leaving IEP for the Ballymore. The only reason I say this is because Dark Raven only has the 2m entry at the DRF.

However, during the week I did play the IEP (Supreme)/Facile (Ballymore) double but only NRNB.

Willie splits his best two up, pretty much every time, doesn't he?

I'm obviously making the assumption IEP is up there as one of his top two, based on what I've watched/listened to, and of course his debut performance. Could be that Gaelic Warrior is the number two, but the Moscow Flyer declaration for IEP was also significant for me.

 

[Benjy23]

I'm a bit surprised anyone thinks Facile Vega will go anywhere but the Supreme.

The problem with IEP being 'the' replacement is that he does have a retained jockey too, so they could easily both run in the Supreme.

therefore they're not related enough to make it appealing for me .... but low risk high reward so best of luck

Potentially a lazy one this but was Sir Gerhard running in the Ballymore all that different? CPS didn't have a runner in the Supreme... I guess jockey wise they don't have a retained rider but Townend would still want to ride both, if IEP looked to have a real shot (he'd still get the choice on M&S owned Mullins trained as far as I'm aware).

 

[Lobos]

Can't believe we are back onto the Vega Ballymore possibility again but can see why with the IEP Moscow Flyer run and assumptions that both he and Vega are Willie's top two. No getting away from fact that over the years he has religiously split his best two and that his Moscow Flyer winners have mostly turned up in the Supreme. I also think that looking at the current potential Supreme crop that most are hold up horses with a telling finish so I don't see where the pace is coming from so Vega might have to make his own pace and take it on. He's well capable of that but it's still not ideal. Looking at the potential Ballymore runners there's no end of horses that are likely to want to be up there so Vega could get a tow into the race at a decent pace which may suit his style of running and indeed help his jumping. If IEP is super impressive in the MF and shows a proper turn of foot again will PT have a big say in wanting to ride them both as well? Vega's performance at the DRF may also have a significant bearing on where he ends up. If he wins comfortably over 2 there then surely he stays at 2. If he wins and looks as though a step up may be extra beneficial then the Ballymore must be a big option. If he gets beat.............

All super interesting. I don't envy Willie at all . Let it all unfold!

 

[Stormez]

Can't believe we are back onto the Vega Ballymore possibility again but can see why with the IEP Moscow Flyer run and assumptions that both he and Vega are Willie's top two. No getting away from fact that over the years he has religiously split his best two and that his Moscow Flyer winners have mostly turned up in the Supreme. I also think that looking at the current potential Supreme crop that most are hold up horses with a telling finish so I don't see where the pace is coming from so Vega might have to make his own pace and take it on. He's well capable of that but it's still not ideal. Looking at the potential Ballymore runners there's no end of horses that are likely to want to be up there so Vega could get a tow into the race at a decent pace which may suit his style of running and indeed help his jumping. If IEP is super impressive in the MF and shows a proper turn of foot again will PT have a big say in wanting to ride them both as well? Vega's performance at the DRF may also have a significant bearing on where he ends up. If he wins comfortably over 2 there then surely he stays at 2. If he wins and looks as though a step up may be extra beneficial then the Ballymore must be a big option. If he gets beat.............

All super interesting. I don't envy Willie at all . Let it all unfold!

I do! I’d through the missus under the first passing bus to be in his position :biggrin-new: