Related Bets (ideas)

[Kevloaf]

Don't think he'd switch whoever was missing from the Supreme. He's more suited to Ballymore distance. It just seems like a bet for bettings sake to me regardless of NRNB. Why tie your money up ? Don't get it.

His 2nd to Ferny Hollow, is better 2m form that literally anything bar say, Metier and Ballyadam (and Appreciate It) have done.


If he ran in the Supreme, he'd be 3rd fav at absolute worst.... which is similar to the Ballymore.



It's not that hard to get :cheerful: - NRNB bets like this aren't for everyone, but they're worthwhile as literally no risk.

 

[Lobos]

His 2nd to Ferny Hollow, is better 2m form that literally anything bar say, Metier and Ballyadam (and Appreciate It) have done.


If he ran in the Supreme, he'd be 3rd fav at absolute worst.... which is similar to the Ballymore.



It's not that hard to get :cheerful: - NRNB bets like this aren't for everyone, but they're worthwhile as literally no risk.

But he still got beat and looked like the step up would suit, which it did. Dropping back to 2 miles against speedier types would not make sense at all.

 

[Kevloaf]

But he still got beat and looked like the step up would suit, which it did. Dropping back to 2 miles against speedier types would not make sense at all.

He got beat by Ferny Hollow, the only horse fast enough to beat Appreciate It...

It's hardly mental on that alone to think Bob O, who wasn't beaten far, might be able to beat AI at 2m....


I would argue very strongly that Appreciate It is better suited to the Ballymore.... I think he'd be an actual racing certainy! He'd freaking destroy Bob Olinger, Gaillard Du Mensil and Bravemansgame...

 

[TigerRolllllll]

I understand why many people may not want to do these type of bets as they usually seem unlikely scenarios, etc......but as someone fairly new to ante-post, want to pass on to other newbies just how profitable these can be.....easily the best thread for me over past 2 seasons.

You can do tiny bets and drive amazing value with form and scenario links

Example of ones that might pay this time for me....

when Appr It was entered for 2m second time, there had to be chance if he won, they would switch....and he was 14s I think.....plus if he switched the obvious 2 favs at time Bob Ol and Brave would shorten.....couple tiny bets risks nothing ....and can protect other parts of ur book. This is better value than just backing Appr It alone (tho thankfully did that too)

I also have all the combinations of Spuds form from last year in RSA / Stayers, plus few others....so Monkfish / Thyme Hill now looks good and even Fury Road not dead

Obviously I have lots dead rubbish too :drunk:.....but last couple years has taught me to do lots of tiny ones and it seems to pay well ....and as I said de-risk sometimes too

Have seen Kev and others put some amazing ideas up here.....Altior QM , but lose to Cyrname last year was a brilliant one that could so easily have landed

Really encourage people to share ideas.....I will prob do quite a lot of them for one :lemo:

 

[The King Pimm]

There’s got to be a twist in the Supreme market, there is so little depth or competition after AI that someone is going to sense that weakness and move in. With AI winning again today and beating so many supremes candidates again, Third Time Lucki losing and Metier expected to contest the Betfair Hurdle the Supreme has to be one of the weakest races of the festival on paper besides the Pertemps and Cross Country. If I was HDB even with his poor novice hurdles record I would be considering the Supreme for Bob Olinger at this stage. I definitely hope he stays in the Ballymore but I think he has a better chance in the Supreme.

 

[Kevloaf]

Have seen Kev and others put some amazing ideas up here.....Altior QM , but lose to Cyrname last year was a brilliant one that could so easily have landed

Haha, that one was actually properly clever.... like they Honeysuckle ICH / Concertsita and BDD ones in my ever so humble opinion :unconscious:

 

[TigerRolllllll]

Haha, that one was actually properly clever.... like they Honeysuckle ICH / Concertsita and BDD ones in my ever so humble opinion :unconscious:

Forgot those.....yes Honey doubles and Trebles now look super yummy

i only do tiny bets as for fun, but reckon bigger stakes people could clean up if she lands CH

 

[Lobos]

Mares Bingo


Just chatting with Lobos in the Mares Hurdle thread, mentioned this so will have to post it up....

2551/1

Honeysuckle (Champion Hurdle)
Concertista (Mares Hurdle)
Benie Des Dieux (Mares Chase)



As much as I don't think Honeysuckle will run, I can't deny they'll weight it up and Henry De Bromhead is pretty game, he may not just automatically take in the easier race IF (Benie Des Dieux) does end up chasing. BDD would only end up chasing IF Mullins has what he considers a penalty kick in the Mares Hurdles, and Concertista does look the most likely, given her festival record? (Compared to Stormy Ireland, or Burning Victory?)


So whilst I don't actually love this bet, the small stakes trixie may well be worth a min stakes dabble...

This one looks crap !

 

[Kevloaf]

This one looks crap !

Haha, until finals declarations, I agree ositive:

 

[Lobos]

Haha, until finals declarations, I agree ositive:

I took your advice though and did two of the doubles. :encouragement:

 

[robith]

I understand why many people may not want to do these type of bets as they usually seem unlikely scenarios, etc......but as someone fairly new to ante-post, want to pass on to other newbies just how profitable these can be.....easily the best thread for me over past 2 seasons.

You can do tiny bets and drive amazing value with form and scenario links

Example of ones that might pay this time for me....

when Appr It was entered for 2m second time, there had to be chance if he won, they would switch....and he was 14s I think.....plus if he switched the obvious 2 favs at time Bob Ol and Brave would shorten.....couple tiny bets risks nothing ....and can protect other parts of ur book. This is better value than just backing Appr It alone (tho thankfully did that too)

I also have all the combinations of Spuds form from last year in RSA / Stayers, plus few others....so Monkfish / Thyme Hill now looks good and even Fury Road not dead

Obviously I have lots dead rubbish too :drunk:.....but last couple years has taught me to do lots of tiny ones and it seems to pay well ....and as I said de-risk sometimes too

Have seen Kev and others put some amazing ideas up here.....Altior QM , but lose to Cyrname last year was a brilliant one that could so easily have landed

Really encourage people to share ideas.....I will prob do quite a lot of them for one :lemo:

Simply the Betts/Imperial Aura was a very profitable one for the forum last year

 

[The King Pimm]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers won.....the TBB double is on!!!

 

[Kevloaf]

Just put this up as a joke, but then backed it because I had exactly 3 pts in WH from a NR today and an a Lucky 15/1 fits into 3 pts nicely.


The Paul Nolan is-scared-of-and-wants-a-winner Lucky 31

Envoi Allen (Marsh) - Too scared to take him on
Monkfish (RSA) - Now puts him up there with Envoi Allen in terms of ability. Beaten by him 3 times.
Royal Pagaille (Gold Cup) - Won't run in the NH Chase if RP wins because he's rated too high so 'no point'
Latest Exhibition (NH Chase) - Given it's odds on RP does go for the GC, LE has Galvin to beat.



A stupid bet of course, but 319/1 - it is related, and he'd be the first leg, and if he won, it'll be justified, and then Monkfish would be running.... and then the banker of the meeting.....

and then the last leg will be a handicapper in the Gold Cup, which will be fun to watch flop.

 

[The King Pimm]

Just put this up as a joke, but then backed it because I had exactly 3 pts in WH from a NR today and an a Lucky 15/1 fits into 3 pts nicely.


The Paul Nolan is-scared-of-and-wants-a-winner Lucky 31

Envoi Allen (Marsh) - Too scared to take him on
Monkfish (RSA) - Now puts him up there with Envoi Allen in terms of ability. Beaten by him 3 times.
Royal Pagaille (Gold Cup) - Won't run in the NH Chase if RP wins because he's rated too high so 'no point'
Latest Exhibition (NH Chase) - Given it's odds on RP does go for the GC, LE has Galvin to beat.



A stupid bet of course, but 319/1 - it is related, and he'd be the first leg, and if he won, it'll be justified, and then Monkfish would be running.... and then the banker of the meeting.....

and then the last leg will be a handicapper in the Gold Cup, which will be fun to watch flop.

Very good Kev, that made me chuckle :congratulatory:

I was thinking of doing something on similar lines called ‘The Bridesmaid’ which was a ‘Lucky’ multiple of potential festival horses that have seen the backside of festival bankers this year as an alternative decent paying place pot. The risk is that they give up trying like Paul Nolan’s exhibition and don’t go to the festival but I suppose the NRNB is the safe option.

I was thinking Ballyadam, Abracadabras, Latest Exhibition, Melon, Run Wild Fred and Santini

 

[Kevloaf]

Been mulling over Fakir D'Oudaries (who has made an appearance in this thread with PTKO a long way back....

He ran so well behind Chacun Pour Soi, and last year, the horse that did that, Min, was one I was very strong on to then go to the Ryanair and win.

At 14/1, or 12/1 NRNB I thought that was a little bit tight as a single, but then, given Chacun Pour Soi looks imperious, and if he won, it certaintly wouldn't knock Fakir D'oudaries chances....

I think it's a nice looking double?


A few options....

NRNB (PP/BFSB) 19/1
Cashout (365) 26.45/1
Only QMCC NRNB 26/1


Personally, I think the NRNB is the way to go, but interested to hear people's thoughts?

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Been mulling over Fakir D'Oudaries (who has made an appearance in this thread with PTKO a long way back....

He ran so well behind Chacun Pour Soi, and last year, the horse that did that, Min, was one I was very strong on to then go to the Ryanair and win.

At 14/1, or 12/1 NRNB I thought that was a little bit tight as a single, but then, given Chacun Pour Soi looks imperious

I think there’s every chance FD ends up taking Chacun on again in the Queen Mother.
With Defi confirmed out JP will I’m sure want a runner in the race...

 

[Kevloaf]

I think there’s every chance FD ends up taking Chacun on again in the Queen Mother.
With Defi confirmed out JP will I’m sure want a runner in the race...

How sure are you about that?

QMCC.....last 10 years.... JP runners

2011 - Captain Cee Bee
2012 - No runner
2013 - No runner
2014 - Kid Cassidy
2015 - Mr Mole
2016 - No runner
2017 - No runner
2018 - No runner
2019 - Hell's Kitchen
2020 - Defi Du Seuil


Ryanair...last 10 years ..... JP runners

2011 - No runner
2012 - No runner
2013 - No runner
2014 - No runner
2015 - Uxizandre (1st)
2016 - Gilgamboa
2017 - Uxizandre
2018 - No runner
2019 - Coney Island
2020 - No runner



Doesn't look like a pattern to me, just runs one in the race they're best suited to?

NRNB anyway is the way I've played it, I know you've backed and fancy Fakir D'Oudaries in the QMCC, but in terms of the angle I'm putting forwards, I would fancy Fakir D'Oudaries MORE than I did, if CPS wins, so I like the NRNB double.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Doesn't look like a pattern to me, just runs one in the race they're best suited to?

NRNB anyway is the way I've played it, I know you've backed and fancy Fakir D'Oudaries in the QMCC

Certainly no pattern, but they were adamant Defi went there last year when plenty thought the Ryanair was a more suitable option.

As for FD I was all over him in March but the form of JOBs horses has been dire and he said back in the Autumn he would be stepping the horse up so I’d given up on those vouchers, he then reverted back to 2m and proved himself well last week and although Chacun looks a certainty everyone has to assume the track will suit and if it doesn’t he’s as well placed as any of them to take advantage, and the Ryanair looks a hot contest...

 

[opatcho]

I have a strong opinion on Fakir, and he needs to go into the Ryanair
Remember backing Uxizandre at a big price for the QM and then didnt touch him for the Ryanair. Sicking

However, Fakir appears to have really good pace, not tactical pace, but pace that got him around an Arkle, with front runners, on the sharper old course. He's displayed the ability to carry that pace onto the end, staying on the PTKO who is also considered by some needing a step up.

He's a horse you just want to set off and allow him to find his rhythm and stay on. Better chance of this in the Ryanair over the new course, than the old course in the in the QM

There arent many 2 and a half mile grade 1 races, otherwise he would have been in them. Instead, Fakir has been campaigned over 2 and 3 miles this season.

I recommend anyone, if they have 5 mins, to watch how Fakir travelled and jumped in his only chase run over middle distance. He was class that day.

He's been heavily tried over 2 miles, hurdles and chase. I dont see why they would continue this trend and go for the QM when they have the Ryanair, a distance which is he still unexposed over, and a race which doesnt have a potential superstar in it (unlike the QM with CPS).

Luckily for me, I decided to back Fakir a few months back for any race. Finally I did something half decent for once lol

If I had to back him in one race now... I would back him for the Ryanair - I really fancy him for that now, after his last run which makes me think he's back in form.

 

[Kevloaf]

Certainly no pattern, but they were adamant Defi went there last year when plenty thought the Ryanair was a more suitable option.

As for FD I was all over him in March but the form of JOBs horses has been dire and he said back in the Autumn he would be stepping the horse up so I’d given up on those vouchers, he then reverted back to 2m and proved himself well last week and although Chacun looks a certainty everyone has to assume the track will suit and if it doesn’t he’s as well placed as any of them to take advantage, and the Ryanair looks a hot contest...

Defi had won 2m G1's along the way though.

I'd say Ryanair looks easier to win.... no standout horse.