Related Bets (ideas)

[The King Pimm]

Throw in Captain Guinness and a nice little multiple building :eagerness:

Oh yeah, I forgot about the good Captain, that’s the e/w Trixie .....start playing Heartbreaker by Led Zeppelin or Kick Start My Heart by Motley Crue (shit song but great title)

 

[Kevloaf]

Soaring Glory beat Bravemansgame first time out this season by 0.5L

70.5/1 for the Supreme/Ballymore double for them.


I've had 0.4 pts e/w on it just to remind me to back it with enhanced places closer to the time (and cash this one out, probably)

 

[Lobos]

Galvin and The Bosses Oscar. The two biggest plot horses so far for this year. I'm having that double.

 

[Kevloaf]

After giving Mister Whitaker a mention for the Plate I must clarify before I make this next case that I have no particular allegiance to Mick Channon!! It is purely coincidental that I like the chances of these two, although he does have a fair track record when targeting the Festival.

Hold The Note
Ran an excellent race in the Novice Hcap at last year's festival when 3rd behind none other than Imperial Aura and Galvin in what, on reflection, was an impossible task trying to give them 2lb and 3lb respectively. Before this he had gone down by just 1/2L to Two For Gold off level weights over 3miles at Warwick - that horse is now rated 154. 13L back was Whatmore who is now off 145 and many fancied for here.
Hold The Note is a 2nd season novice and for whatever reason had a tough time of it in the first half of this season, not disgraced, but never really landing a blow in 4 races. He had a wind op over Christmas and it was much more like it last time going down fighting to Enrilo over 2m 7 1/2f at Newbury. That was off 7lb lower than the Cheltenham performance (145>138) and he might go up a couple for it but if back on form that is no issue. As a relatively unexposed 7yo there is every reason to think there could be more to come. He showed no signs of stopping at Newbury and, coupled with the Warwick performance last Jan, I don't doubt that he's a 3miler - in fact RP comments after his 4th in the John Francome suggested he could be one for the NH Chase! 33/1 NRNB is appealing in a race that may lack depth.

1155/1 for the Viking Flagship Mick Channon lovin' double

I've had 0.25 pts e/w on without NRNB :indecisiveness:


Annoyingly, Eclair is not best priced with these....

Best price on the VF trixie is 30055/1 with 365 :wink-new:

 

[Viking Flagship]

1155/1 for the Viking Flagship Mick Channon lovin' double

I've had 0.25 pts e/w on without NRNB :indecisiveness:


Annoyingly, Eclair is not best priced with these....

Best price on the VF trixie is 30055/1 with 365 :wink-new:

:highly_amused::highly_amused::highly_amused:

This made me chuckle. Hadn't even contemplated it but I suppose I have to get involved now don't I?!

Just a warning they could go to the KM with Hold The Note but there's no juice in his price there. I was going to mention this in my post but I thought there was no way anyone would back without NRNB since he's 33s pretty much across the board.

 

[opatcho]

I think last seasons Arkle 1 and 2 could place

Question is, which races. Sounds like PTKO could go QMCC, I really cant see her winning that but I can certainly see her placing
I really like Fakir for the Ryanair, win bet covered but is another one I can see placing. Can't see Fakir winning the QMCC, he need to go further

Will have a look around, but may Request a bet if I cant anything posted up

 

[Attaglance]

I always look at the horses finishing down the field in the Martin Pipe, normally a few winners for the following years festival.

The below horses all ran in the Martin Pipe last year:

• Great White Shark - 3rd - fancy to go well in the Mares Hurdle - could be like in 2015 dare I mention that race when the Mullins 2nd string picked up the pieces.
• Happygolucky- 4th - Spectre is leading the change with this one in the Ultima.
• TheBosses Oscar - 5th - All set up for the Pertemps. Will be hard to beat with a decent claimer on board.
• Umbridago - 11th - entered in the Grand Annual & PP Plate, looking like the PP Plate going by betting. Form figures of 2211 this season.
• Front View - 12th - well backed fav at 4/1 last year, entered again after a few races chasing, interesting if runs here, currently 33/1. J O’B has history with repeat horses - Early Doors as an example.
• Escaria Ten - 15th - looking like NHC, but maybe Ultima. Was a fun day when everyone shot the load early with him for the Kim Muir, myself included. :biggrin-new:
• Anything will do - 16th - Pertemps, expecting a decent run, was on E/W at big odds (50/1) when sky pushed the price out in the William Fry Handicap at DRF, went off at 28/1 that day. Currently 50/1 again this time with Bet 365, only 4 places, would like that 5 / maybe 6 places if bookies are feeling generous.

Possible at least 1 winning related double in there somewhere. Could be the making of a great Yankee. :beguiled:

Below would be my E/W Yankee pick - WH - 1/5 odds 5 places in Handicaps - Antepost,

• Great White Shark - Mares Hurdle - 20/1
• Happygolucky - Ultima - 14/1
• The Bosses Oscar - Pertemps - 6/1
• Front View - Martin Pipe - 33/1

Dream land Yankee (Mayo Millions) - bet365 - 1/4 odds 4 places - Antepost

• Front View - Martin Pipe - 25/1
• Anything Will Do - Pertemps - 50/1
• Umbridago - PP Plate - 16/1
• Escaria Ten - NHC - 14/1

 

[Kevloaf]

I always look at the horses finishing down the field in the Martin Pipe, normally a few winners for the following years festival.

The below horses all ran in the Martin Pipe last year:

• Great White Shark - 3rd - fancy to go well in the Mares Hurdle - could be like in 2015 dare I mention that race when the Mullins 2nd string picked up the pieces.
• Happygolucky- 4th - Spectre is leading the change with this one in the Ultima.
• TheBosses Oscar - 5th - All set up for the Pertemps. Will be hard to beat with a decent claimer on board.
• Umbridago - 11th - entered in the Grand Annual & PP Plate, looking like the PP Plate going by betting. Form figures of 2211 this season.
• Front View - 12th - well backed fav at 4/1 last year, entered again after a few races chasing, interesting if runs here, currently 33/1. J O’B has history with repeat horses - Early Doors as an example.
• Escaria Ten - 15th - looking like NHC, but maybe Ultima. Was a fun day when everyone shot the load early with him for the Kim Muir, myself included. :biggrin-new:
• Anything will do - 16th - Pertemps, expecting a decent run, was on E/W at big odds (50/1) when sky pushed the price out in the William Fry Handicap at DRF, went off at 28/1 that day. Currently 50/1 again this time with Bet 365, only 4 places, would like that 5 / maybe 6 places if bookies are feeling generous.

Possible at least 1 winning related double in there somewhere. Could be the making of a great Yankee. :beguiled:

Below would be my E/W Yankee pick - WH - 1/5 odds 5 places in Handicaps - Antepost,

• Great White Shark - Mares Hurdle - 20/1
• Happygolucky - Ultima - 14/1
• The Bosses Oscar - Pertemps - 6/1
• Front View - Martin Pipe - 33/1

Dream land Yankee (Mayo Millions) - bet365 - 1/4 odds 4 places - Antepost

• Front View - Martin Pipe - 25/1
• Anything Will Do - Pertemps - 50/1
• Umbridago - PP Plate - 16/1
• Escaria Ten - NHC - 14/1

Excellent post.


If cherry picked, I wonder if this angle would have landed in previous years? Gut feeling is it would've!

 

[charlie]

Excellent post.


If cherry picked, I wonder if this angle would have landed in previous years? Gut feeling is it would've!

I second that, top post Ataglance

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Attaglance Great work there.

I remember the buzz around Front View last year, if you go back and watch a few previews he is talked about as the handicap certainty of the week so clearly people have him down as a better horse that this.
JOBs dire form this season means he gets another chance at this level, but you would like to see some yard form...

 

[Old Vic]

I always look at the horses finishing down the field in the Martin Pipe, normally a few winners for the following years festival.

The below horses all ran in the Martin Pipe last year:

• Great White Shark - 3rd - fancy to go well in the Mares Hurdle - could be like in 2015 dare I mention that race when the Mullins 2nd string picked up the pieces.
• Happygolucky- 4th - Spectre is leading the change with this one in the Ultima.
• TheBosses Oscar - 5th - All set up for the Pertemps. Will be hard to beat with a decent claimer on board.
• Umbridago - 11th - entered in the Grand Annual & PP Plate, looking like the PP Plate going by betting. Form figures of 2211 this season.
• Front View - 12th - well backed fav at 4/1 last year, entered again after a few races chasing, interesting if runs here, currently 33/1. J O’B has history with repeat horses - Early Doors as an example.
• Escaria Ten - 15th - looking like NHC, but maybe Ultima. Was a fun day when everyone shot the load early with him for the Kim Muir, myself included. :biggrin-new:
• Anything will do - 16th - Pertemps, expecting a decent run, was on E/W at big odds (50/1) when sky pushed the price out in the William Fry Handicap at DRF, went off at 28/1 that day. Currently 50/1 again this time with Bet 365, only 4 places, would like that 5 / maybe 6 places if bookies are feeling generous.

Possible at least 1 winning related double in there somewhere. Could be the making of a great Yankee. :beguiled:

Below would be my E/W Yankee pick - WH - 1/5 odds 5 places in Handicaps - Antepost,

• Great White Shark - Mares Hurdle - 20/1
• Happygolucky - Ultima - 14/1
• The Bosses Oscar - Pertemps - 6/1
• Front View - Martin Pipe - 33/1

Dream land Yankee (Mayo Millions) - bet365 - 1/4 odds 4 places - Antepost

• Front View - Martin Pipe - 25/1
• Anything Will Do - Pertemps - 50/1
• Umbridago - PP Plate - 16/1
• Escaria Ten - NHC - 14/1

Like this a lot. Some of these could end up In Coral Cup but too early to call.

Skybet seem to have stopped me doing any multiples ? Anyone else had this ?

 

[Attaglance]

Excellent post.


If cherry picked, I wonder if this angle would have landed in previous years? Gut feeling is it would've!

I have looked into this further going back to the 2015 race and below is the findings;


2019 Martin Pipe we had 4 horses returning for 2020;

• Champagne Court - 4th in 2019 - ran in Novice Handicap Chase - 8th - SP 18/1
• Burrows Park - 9th in 2019 - ran in Pertemps - PU - SP 66/1
• Pym - 11th in 2019 - ran in RSA - PU- SP 33/1
• Le Musee - 13th in 2019 - ran in Kim Muir - 13th - SP 100/1

Certainly not a vintage year, but then the SP odds for the 2020 races tell you all you need to know about the 4 returning horses chances.


We did have Early Doors - 1st 2019, didn’t go to Cheltenham last year and has won the Galway Plate Chase this summer, unfortunately OFS.

Dallas Des Pictons - 2nd in 2019, didn’t go to Cheltenham last year, could run a massive race in the Pertemps if gets qualified ok at Punchestown.

Defi Bleu - 3rd in 2019, had a 571 day break since and could take his chance in the PP plate this year. I think Quevaga is quite sweet on him.

Not That Fuisse - Fell in 2019, didn’t get into the Grand Annual last year, hopefully Skelton has learned and he should get into the Grand Annual this year all being well with a decent chance of being in the mix at the end.


So certainly no related doubles from the 2019 addition in 2020, but maybe a chance this year with Dallas Des Pictons & Not That Fuisse.


2018 Martin Pipe we had 5 horses returning for 2019;

• Discorama - 2nd in 2018 - ran in the NHC - 2nd beaten by 1/2 length - SP 9/2. Went on then to finish 3rd in 2020 in the Ultima - SP 11/2.
• Early Doors - 3rd in 2018 - ran in Martin Pipe again - 1st - SP 5/1
• Sire Du Berlais - 4th in 2018 - ran in Pertemps - 1st - SP 4/1. Then again won the Pertemps last year - SP 10/1 & Gordon is bullish about his chances in the Stayers this year and why wouldn’t he with 2 festival wins to his name.
• Lough Derg Spirit - 6th in 2018 - ran in Novice Handicap Chase - PU - SP 12/1.
• Brenan D’As - 17th in 2018 - ran in Grand Annual - 3rd - SP 8/1.

Not much else to say as the results say it all, interesting to note each winner & placed horses were lower than 10/1 at the off.


2017 Martin Pipe we had 9 horses returning for 2018;

• Coo Star Sivola - 4th in 2017 - ran in Ultima - 1st - SP 5/1.
• Thomas Campbell - 5th in 2017 - ran in Pertemps- 14th - SP 20/1
• Born Survivor- 6th in 2017 - ran in Grand Annual - 8th - SP 25/1
• No Comment - 7th in 2017 - ran in NHC - 6th - SP 9/1
• Dadsintrouble - 9th in 2017 - ran in Pertemps- 22nd - SP 40/1
• Remiluc - 15th in 2017 - ran in county Hurdle - 2nd - SP 50/1
• Dell Arca - 18th in 2017 - ran in Pertemps- 18th - SP 50/1
• Ballyhill - 19th in 2017 - ran in Novice Handicap Chase - 9th - SP 25/1
• Rather Be - UR at 2nd fence in 2017 - ran in Novice Handicap Chase- 2nd - SP 12/1

Again it pays to follow the fancied horses in Handicaps with Coo Star Sivola winning and Rather Be in 2nd. Remiluc out running his odds in the County with a 2nd.


2016 Martin Pipe we had 6 horses returning for 2017;

• Ibis Du Rheu - 1st in 2016 - ran in Ultima- PU - 12/1
• Flying Angel - 2nd in 2016 - ran in JLT Novice Chase - 6th - SP 9/1
• Tully East - 4th in 2016 - ran in Novice Chase - 1st - SP 8/1
• Sqouateur - 7th in 2016 - ran in Kim Muir - UR 3 out while still in the mix - SP 5/1. Went on the following year to finish 3rd in the Kim Muir again at 5/1.
• Label Des Obeaux - 12th in 2016 - ran in the Ultima- 11th - SP 16/1
• Mr Mix - Fell in 2016 - ran in Pertemps - 24th - SP 50/1

Again highlighting to follow single figure horses in Handicaps the following year with Tully East winning in 2017 & Sqouateur going well before UR 3 out, only to come back the next year and of course go off below 10/1 and place.


2015 Martin Pipe we had 7 horses returning for 2016;

• Noble Endeavour - 2nd in 2015 - ran in NHC - fell - SP 15/2. Came back in 2017 to finish 3rd in the Ultima and yes you have guessed it he went off below 10/1 - SP 15/2.
• Roi Des Francs - 3rd in 2015 - ran in RSA Chase - 6th - SP 10/1.
• Le Mercury - 7th in 2015 - ran in RSA - 8th - SP 33/1.
• Full Shift - 8th in 2015 - ran in the Handicap plate (PP plate) - 4th - SP 7/1.
• Vieux Lion Rouge - 10th in 2015 - ran in NHC - 6th - SP 25/1.
• McKinley - 11th in 2015 - ran in Novice Handicap Chase - UR at 6th - SP 14/1.
• On Tour - 12th in 2015 - ran in Novice Handicap Chase- 8th - SP 22/1.

Surprise surprise again any runners in Handicaps under 10/1 have placed (Full shift) all be it Noble Endeavour did it after 2 years from running in the Martin Pipe.


I know only 5 years of information here, but it points very clearly to pay attention to horses that run in Handicaps the following year with a SP below 10/1.


Getting back to the point of the thread the related double this points very clearly to The Bosses Oscar and Happygolucky (the way Spectre is driving down the price, Happygolucky will surely go off below 10/1....:welcoming:


Hopefully this has been useful and highlights a few winners / placed horses for us all, I have went big (for me) with 4pts E/W on the above Double and also put in Front View for the treble for another 1pt E/W. So 10 pts total outlay for me and hoping we get results like the 2018 vintage produced.

Good luck all. :greedy_dollars:

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Attaglance love it, some great work here.
I’ve got the suggested double several times but as I’m greedy they’re all part of a bigger jackpot patent.
I may even do the same again and throw Front View in for another patent...

 

[Attaglance]

Attaglance love it, some great work here.
I’ve got the suggested double several times but as I’m greedy they’re all part of a bigger jackpot patent.
I may even do the same again and throw Front View in for another patent...

Not a problem at all, I enjoyed the research this evening.

Yeah I imagine most people are already on both horses at bigger prices and I suppose this is further back up that we are all on the correct track.

I agree with your comment that J O’Brien stable has been in terrible form this season, though a decent showing at the DRF hopefully is a sign of the yard improving in time for Cheltenham.

I like Druids Altar in the Boodles & Entoucs in the Grand Annual for Joesph, hoping for big runs from both.

 

[Attaglance]

Like this a lot. Some of these could end up In Coral Cup but too early to call.

Skybet seem to have stopped me doing any multiples ? Anyone else had this ?

Thanks Old Vic, yeah a few could turn up in the Coral as you say, the key is will they go off below 10/1.

I have been able to place multiples with Sky ok today, hope all sorted for you now.

 

[Old Vic]

https://www.racingpost.com/results/193/navan/2020-12-05/772576

the obvious two plus Low Sun ?

 

[TigerRolllllll]

Hate suggesting this......but we prob need to face possibilitiy that Elliott will be banned and some of his horses won’t make it (or switch stable and not ideal)

My understanding is he can appeal a ban and get 2 weeks delay, but that still might hit end of Chelt (all very tbc)

Don’t want to make changes much to my book to guess what might happen.....but if there is a plan then a few doubles might work

Focus on races no Elliott most impacts and doubles obviously multiply off low stakes

Races prob could impact most - NHC, Bumper, Marsh, Triumph, Spuds.....Triumph looks most key to look at

 

[Kevloaf]

Now that Henry De Bromhead has Ballyadam and Bob Olinger, both 2nd favs for their respective races.

Both NRNB prices....

31/1 Ballyadam (4 places) Bob Olinger (3 places) for Supreme/Ballymore
168/1 Bob Olinger (4 places) Ballyadam (3 places) for Supreme/Ballymore



I have added both... the latter unlikely but certainly wasn't 'ruled out' so nothing to lose really at this late stage.


The first one I give a really good chance to placing, and you never know.

 

[Hardy Eustace]

Happygolucky comfortably beat Paint the dream at Stratford first time out.

Given the popularity of Happygolucky - COME ON SON! it maybe worth a wee double on him to win the ultima and paint the dream to win the plate. NRNB 146/1.

 

[Kevloaf]

Allaho (Ryanair) and Elimay (Mares Chase)

55/1 with Sky - that's alright isn't it

Tony Mullins just called this "the race of the year" referring to when they met :highly_amused:
Said they'll both win.
...after saying Allaho is the bet of the meeting...

Hope you're right Tony :triumphant: