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Related Bets (ideas)

Love my Chelt doubles......been super profitable over past couple of years.....so loading on again

One theme am doing lots of this year is stables.....given they tend to be in or out form.....we probably under-estimate this for some stables.

So added Mcfabulous today with some Nicholls ones.....Prolitologue, Pic Dorhy, etc at v long prices

Don't normally do stables multiples much outside festival, but did all Nicholls ones today in combinations at Chepstow.......and was so gutted in last....mind, could of kissed Bryony in race earlier, so still got lots of nice stake vouchers for Chelt :)
 
TigerRolllllll said:
Here'a long-priced one on HDB day 1

Minella Melody staying hurdling and obvious target is Mares.....so, if looking good they could switch Honeysuckle to CH, which Henry is still saying an option

Double is a very large price for a small stake
Click to expand...

Definitely like this idea Tiger, mentioned it in the stable tours thread after rewarding HDB’s tour.

Small play e/w the way to go I think.
 
285/1

The Big Getaway (NH Chase)
Monkfish (RSA)


As the 'stable tours' have mentioned that Monkfish is the most likely RSA horse, and in the RP they've actually said '4 miles' and Patrick seems a big fan, a speculative each way related double on these two looks a potential shortener?


Best price with (365)
 
Kevloaf said:
285/1

The Big Getaway (NH Chase)
Monkfish (RSA)


As the 'stable tours' have mentioned that Monkfish is the most likely RSA horse, and in the RP they've actually said '4 miles' and Patrick seems a big fan, a speculative each way related double on these two looks a potential shortener?


Best price with (365)
Click to expand...

Yeah with you on this

Related double - Monkfish RSA and The Big Getaway NHC 286/1

Monkfish was the best of them over hurdles and Patrick would love it if he kept that up and was going off fav for the RSA by the comments recently. Patrick seems to love TBG and would be delighted if he could split them up and ride TBG in the NHC. Patrick has got his wish the last 2 years with Carefully Selected and Ballyward only entered in the NHC and not in both. They certainly wont be leaving it so late to get horses qualified this year. In an ideal world thats the way I have it at the moment but TBG could easily improve past Monkfish and run in the RSA
 
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Yeah there is no doubt at all TBG could end up in the RSA.

It does sound like they're aware of the ground too for him with bim being the biggest horse they've ever had in the yard (apparently).
 
Kevloaf said:
Yeah there is no doubt at all TBG could end up in the RSA.

It does sound like they're aware of the ground too for him with bim being the biggest horse they've ever had in the yard (apparently).
Click to expand...

Not sure if you saw it or not.
But Lieutenant Rocco is apperantly with Mullins now.
 
Does Willie have previous of running more than one in the NH Chase? From recent memory he only seems to send one for it and have multiple runners in the other novice chases.
 
Quevega said:
Not sure if you saw it or not.
But Lieutenant Rocco is apperantly with Mullins now.
Click to expand...

The Tizzard horse?

Hadn't seen that, no.




To be fair there will be loads of combinations of these for the time being..

My personal feeling is that Monkfish and The Big Getaway are the best of them..... but opinions like that are pretty pointlessgiven that we're about to start the season and I'd just chance my mind!
 
Kevloaf said:
The Tizzard horse?

Hadn't seen that, no.




To be fair there will be loads of combinations of these for the time being..

My personal feeling is that Monkfish and The Big Getaway are the best of them..... but opinions like that are pretty pointlessgiven that we're about to start the season and I'd just chance my mind!
Click to expand...

*cough* *cough* Five O’clock...
 
Just thinking about Benie Des Dieux.

As most of you probably know, I've been backing her with free bets for the Mares Chase. This is clearly very speculative and I've not been able to justify any 'real money' bets.

Reading the comments from the stable, whilst they definitely haven't ruled out going chasing, in fact they have even teased it, history and the patterns that provides, as well as the literal comments, suggest the Mares Hurdle is where she goes.



Despite thinking Salsaretta is one of the worst priced horses of all time at 6/1, part of my thinking for that is because I feel I know they have a better horse in the same ownership in the same stable... however....if I take a step back, is there a possible related double?


Benie Des Dieux (Mares Hurdle), Salsaretta (Mares Chase)... as much as I hate to admit it, if they consider Benie Des Dieux beating Honeysuckle EASIER than whatever Salsaretta might be facing, then there may be something in that?

Would they get it so wrong, that Benie loses against Honeysuckle AND Salsaretta isn't their best chance in the Mares Chase?

People are tipping up novices all over the shop for this, or handicappers. Of couse Salsaretta is only rated 148 where even the likes of Happy Diva are 153, so part of the thinking about the related double is flawed as Salsaretta in my opinion is still bad value.



All in all, I haven't managed to convince myself yet that the 47/1 is a good bet each way..... but interested to know what people think?
 
Kevloaf said:
Just thinking about Benie Des Dieux.

As most of you probably know, I've been backing her with free bets for the Mares Chase. This is clearly very speculative and I've not been able to justify any 'real money' bets.

Reading the comments from the stable, whilst they definitely haven't ruled out going chasing, in fact they have even teased it, history and the patterns that provides, as well as the literal comments, suggest the Mares Hurdle is where she goes.



Despite thinking Salsaretta is one of the worst priced horses of all time at 6/1, part of my thinking for that is because I feel I know they have a better horse in the same ownership in the same stable... however....if I take a step back, is there a possible related double?


Benie Des Dieux (Mares Hurdle), Salsaretta (Mares Chase)... as much as I hate to admit it, if they consider Benie Des Dieux beating Honeysuckle EASIER than whatever Salsaretta might be facing, then there may be something in that?

Would they get it so wrong, that Benie loses against Honeysuckle AND Salsaretta isn't their best chance in the Mares Chase?

People are tipping up novices all over the shop for this, or handicappers. Of couse Salsaretta is only rated 148 where even the likes of Happy Diva are 153, so part of the thinking about the related double is flawed as Salsaretta in my opinion is still bad value.



All in all, I haven't managed to convince myself yet that the 47/1 is a good bet each way..... but interested to know what people think?
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No, no, no Kev. Can't believe you would do that. Salsaretta!!!??? Stick with your head, don't be swayed........she really ain't good enough.

I don't even think Benie (should go Stayers/Mares chase) will win the Mares Hurdle even without Honeysuckle in it so it's a big NO from me.
 
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Lobos said:
No, no, no Kev. Can't believe you would do that. Salsaretta!!!??? Stick with your head, don't be swayed........she really ain't good enough.

I don't even think Benie (should go Stayers/Mares chase) will win the Mares Hurdle even without Honeysuckle in it so it's a big NO from me.
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:highly_amused: I respect archie's opinion enough to at least go back and challenge my own thoughts though Lobos!

As I said, I haven't convinced myself to do it, but nothing wrong with talking it through :)





I do disagree that Benie wouldn't win the Mares Hurdle without Honeysuckle though. Horses like Burning Victory, Minella Melody and Concertista have a way to go to reach their level IMO
 
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Dunno with Benie. 4th time at the race, found one too good this year, arguably better away from Cheltenham, imo better at 3 miles now. I do think Concertista would give her something to think about and also Dame De Compagnie if she stays over hurdles as she loves Cheltenham and 2 1/2 miles is her absolute optimum trip. I've only backed Benie for the Mares Chase but would be all over her in a Stayers. Mares Hurdle though.......not for me. I really do think she'd get done again. Hopefully Mullins will think the same.
 
Lobos said:
Dunno with Benie. 4th time at the race, found one too good this year, arguably better away from Cheltenham, imo better at 3 miles now. I do think Concertista would give her something to think about and also Dame De Compagnie if she stays over hurdles as she loves Cheltenham and 2 1/2 miles is her absolute optimum trip. I've only backed Benie for the Mares Chase but would be all over her in a Stayers. Mares Hurdle though.......not for me. I really do think she'd get done again. Hopefully Mullins will think the same.
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Well as you know, I'm still hoping she goes chasing!

4th time at the race on the one hand makes me think WHY are they doing it when they've only won 1 of the 3! (although the F could be marked up) - but then I just think, they've gone for that race for 3 years, what would be different for a 10 year old.

The answer is hopefully, the inaugral winning of the Mares Chase...




It'd be bad for me financially at this stage, but I'd love to see her in the Stayers Hurdle if she doesn't go chasing....but I don't give a fuck about who the best 'Mare over the intermediate trip is' and I never, ever will. Fucking pointless division.
 
Backed EA (Marsh) & Shishkin (Arkle) 30/1 just after the festival - threw a couple of points at that. Happy so far!
 
Kevloaf said:
Well as you know, I'm still hoping she goes chasing!

4th time at the race on the one hand makes me think WHY are they doing it when they've only won 1 of the 3! (although the F could be marked up) - but then I just think, they've gone for that race for 3 years, what would be different for a 10 year old.

The answer is hopefully, the inaugral winning of the Mares Chase...




It'd be bad for me financially at this stage, but I'd love to see her in the Stayers Hurdle if she doesn't go chasing....but I don't give a fuck about who the best 'Mare over the intermediate trip is' and I never, ever will. Fucking pointless division.
Click to expand...

Think Willie should join this forum. I reckon we'd change his mind re sending her down the Mares Hurdle again !!!
 
Topofthegame2021 said:
Backed EA (Marsh) & Shishkin (Arkle) 30/1 just after the festival - threw a couple of points at that. Happy so far!
Click to expand...

As chairman of the "I did that first" brigade for this bet, I put that up on here 14th March 2020 :p At 41/1 too ..... it was a lovely piece (even if I say so myself) making a lovely parallel between Shishkin and Envoi Allen, and Altior and Yorkhill.


Of course you only joined in Sept, so you couldn't know this... :highly_amused:



I completely agree though, I'm also really happy....but that might be a bit silly as neither have actually been seen since that date, we need to make sure they can jump over fences before getting too carried away. :dejection:
 
Lobos said:
Think Willie should join this forum. I reckon we'd change his mind re sending her down the Mares Hurdle again !!!
Click to expand...

He might believe Salsaretta can win it though....and in that case the Benie Des Douvan/Salsarubbish double becomes a good 'ting!
 
For Ricci:

Chacun Pour Soi - 5/1 QMCC
Min - 10/1 Ryanair



65/1 double.... targets are confirmed which is rare for a Mullins duo! :highly_amused:


Can you name 3 horses in front on each?


I think they're a solid each way bet.
 
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