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National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase

charlie said:
I hate them hype Jockeys like Patrick Mullins, Derek O’Conner and Jamie Codd. All hype no substance, other than having won 6 of the last 9 runnings of the race :witless:

Make no mistake Early Doors is a proper contender here. At Punchestown he was hampered at the perfect part of the race IMO because if he emptied after having been badly hampered you may have reservations over him staying further and question what was left in the tank at 3m. To his credit, he pulled himself together and ran on really well. His debut at Galway was littered with small novice like mistakes and then as the race became a race he really started to jump well. At Punchestown he made far fewer mistakes and jumped brilliantly after having been hampered. Again, showing solid jumping at the business end of a race and galloping on well. I think he'd have no issues over an extra 4/5 furlongs. He's a winner at Cheltenham, he will probably secure a top amateur Jockey, he has run well albeit in defeat over fences so far, he has qualified, he is trained by JOB, owned by JP and probably now no 1 for the race - I'd say all these points collectively lean towards a valid general shortening
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The two at the front of the market hold serious claims, one qualified and one not yet. However, i still think there's a case to be made for Early Door's one of the best antepost bets currently if you want a shortener.
Course form, Irish, JP, probably DOC or another crack jockey.
 
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Alot on here have sniffed it out "Early Doors" and I think all it's going to take now is one of those fancy tipsters to mention it and The Sea of Blue will appear!
 
jack1092 said:
Personally don't think he should be coming here either- he's showing great zest over the shorter trip. However, while i know some are on at fancy prices for this, it might still be worth hovering over the HRI site come 10.30am on Friday in case he's dec'd as to drop to this class of race is a surefire poiinter. Doubt it'll happen and it will probably be all things go for the Flogas in which they'll find out if it's the Marsh or RSA. It'll be a proper race whereas beating Samcro and his inhaler might not be anymore unfortunately.
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Be better for Faugheen to aim to win a Grade 1 at the Festival than this Grade 2.
 
Lobos said:
Hope you are right. Took the 33's yesterday to go with CS and CC. Might add Danny Whizbang and that'll be it for me.
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Yes on all 4 at big prices , all that’s gneedscto happen now is one of them wins :-))
 
jack1092 said:
Personally don't think he should be coming here either- he's showing great zest over the shorter trip. However, while i know some are on at fancy prices for this, it might still be worth hovering over the HRI site come 10.30am on Friday in case he's dec'd as to drop to this class of race is a surefire poiinter. Doubt it'll happen and it will probably be all things go for the Flogas in which they'll find out if it's the Marsh or RSA. It'll be a proper race whereas beating Samcro and his inhaler might not be anymore unfortunately.
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Willie likes to have options so I suspect they will run him over 3m at Naas to qualify for this, then make a call at a later date as to where he goes at Cheltenham. Don't see much point in sending him over the grade 1 at Leopardstown when he can go to an easier race over slightly further, spread his options and then drop back should Willie deem it to be the best option.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
Be better for Faugheen to aim to win a Grade 1 at the Festival than this Grade 2.
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Repeat after me - Willie Mullins goes for the easiest race. Willie Mullins goes for the easiest race. :witless:
 
charlie said:
Willie likes to have options so I suspect they will run him over 3m at Naas to qualify for this, then make a call at a later date as to where he goes at Cheltenham. Don't see much point in sending him over the grade 1 at Leopardstown when he can go to an easier race over slightly further, spread his options and then drop back should Willie deem it to be the best option.
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The ground at Leopardstown could have a big say in where he preps. He'll not be risked on anything with the word Good in it.
 
charlie said:
Willie likes to have options so I suspect they will run him over 3m at Naas to qualify for this, then make a call at a later date as to where he goes at Cheltenham. Don't see much point in sending him over the grade 1 at Leopardstown when he can go to an easier race over slightly further, spread his options and then drop back should Willie deem it to be the best option.
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Don't want to sound Lobos certain, but i'd be pretty confident Faugheen won't run on Sunday. What you are saying does make sense all the same.
 
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jack1092 said:
Don't want to sound Lobos confident, but i'd be pretty confident Faugheen won't run on Sunday. What you are saying does make sense all the same.
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I'd be quietly confident Willie will want to keep as many options open as possible and I expect him to go Sunday and for them to say as much pre -race. One of us is going to be wrong and you are more likely to be right, but we'll see. There's a part of me that wants him to go Leopardstown purely on the basis that if he goes Naas, qualifies, and then ends up in the JLT/RSA i'll be a bit gutted.What are the positives of going Flogas vs Naas?
 
charlie said:
I'd be quietly confident Willie will want to keep as many options open as possible and I expect him to go Sunday and for them to say as much pre -race. One of us is going to be wrong and you are more likely to be right, but we'll see. There's a part of me that wants him to go Leopardstown purely on the basis that if he goes Naas, qualifies, and then ends up in the JLT/RSA i'll be a bit gutted.What are the positives of going Flogas vs Naas?
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Think Naas could be fav due to ground conditions. The last thing they want is to have to pull him if Leopardstown is too fast .
 
you'll have a clue tomorrow when novice chase entries are in.
exchanges are suspended.
But Nothing backed with other bookies.

Paddy's biggest price and boylesports pushed it out
 
charlie said:
I'd be quietly confident Willie will want to keep as many options open as possible and I expect him to go Sunday and for them to say as much pre -race. One of us is going to be wrong and you are more likely to be right, but we'll see. There's a part of me that wants him to go Leopardstown purely on the basis that if he goes Naas, qualifies, and then ends up in the JLT/RSA i'll be a bit gutted.What are the positives of going Flogas vs Naas?
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See i'm not actually vindicating either, given his age + previous history (has run at xmas then straight to chelt) i wouldn't be against him going straight there. Naas is a grade 3 and the only reason i see them running in it is to get qualified as you say. Other than that it's a pointless race to run a 12 yo in at all (obviously). Flogas would follow the natural progression given his last run and i'd have it as a more likely route at this stage. The ground as Lobos has said is important. He is not soft ground dependant and while he's been fragile, "safe" ground will be fine for him which i would hope Leopardstown are pushing for this year after last years calamity.
He surely will use this for one of his NHC contenders, i do think his main one now sadly is Carefully Selected. He'd be backing up quickly though. However, Mullins has been on the record as sayng he thinks the ten up is generally to close to Chelt. I presume CS will end up there though.
 
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Little bits of blue appearing for Early Doors in the last few days.
 
Lobos said:
Early Doors cut into 25's from 33's with Hills.
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33/1 still available with 4 major bookies :rolleyes:

charlie said:
Kev will love that one :applause:
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:dejection:



Time to add more on though...... can't remember who highlighted it first but this horse has the potential to collapse still..... won't get any bigger in my ever so humble opinion :devilish:
 
Kevloaf said:
33/1 still available with 4 major bookies :rolleyes:




:dejection:



Time to add more on though...... can't remember who highlighted it first but this horse has the potential to collapse still..... won't get any bigger in my ever so humble opinion :devilish:
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Agreed. Think i'll go again too. Drops in price a lotttttt.

I stuck him up with Deal D'estruval in October, but that was just looking at the very early markets. Deal D'estruval won't be out till February according to Chambers, so doubt he's coming here sadly. He was a proper long shot pick. :(
 
jack1092 said:
Agreed. Think i'll go again too. Drops in price a lotttttt.

I stuck him up with Deal D'estruval in October, but that was just looking at the very early markets. Deal D'estruval won't be out till February according to Chambers, so doubt he's coming here sadly. He was a proper long shot pick. :(
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Could be dropping in price sooner rather than later should the horse that beat him LTO win the Thyestes tomos... 305/1 for the double with 365.
 
So far taken Carefully Selected at 25s, Early Doors at 33s and Faugheen at 40s. Fairly happy, tempted to have another bash on ED.
 
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