• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Pertemps Network Final 2019

Ball Mark said:
2 of last 22 had won a Qualifier. One was Fingal Bay, can't recall the other.
Click to expand...

Quite a few have won their last race before winning this so the stat is bullshit use anyway.
 
quevega said:
Quite a few have won their last race before winning this so the stat is bullshit use anyway.
Click to expand...

Yes - Presenting Percy won his prep for one. But was given less attacking rides in 2 qualifier's for the Final
 
quevega said:
Quite a few have won their last race before winning this so the stat is bullshit use anyway.
Click to expand...

I'm not bothered about LTO winners for the race, just winners of the qualifiers.
 
quevega said:
what's the logic then cod ?
amaze me ?
Click to expand...

I don't need to amaze you. I'm just happy passing up the 9% of winners (2 from the last 22 running's as Ball Mark has said) that win a qualifier and go on to win the actual race. If I lose because of it then so be it. Which is why I questioned the stat in the first place.
 
Ball Mark said:
Yes - Presenting Percy won his prep for one. But was given less attacking rides in 2 qualifier's for the Final
Click to expand...

13/23 won prior,
which means they're not all minding their mark and some will have improvement
think gault stats mentions the last time out winners have outperformed their actual numbers also.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I don't need to amaze you. I'm just happy passing up the 9% of winners (2 from the last 22 running's as Ball Mark has said) that win a qualifier and go on to win the actual race. If I lose because of it then so be it. Which is why I questioned the stat in the first place.
Click to expand...

Don't worry you haven't.
Is that your logic ?
"If I lose then so be it "
sounds like a t-shirt :highly_amused:
 
quevega said:
Don't worry you haven't.
Is that your logic ?
"If I lose then so be it "
sounds like a t-shirt :highly_amused:
Click to expand...

Yeah my logic to everything.....buy me a t-shirt with your Pertemps winnings then, cheers Q.
 
It's barking to have any kind of firm opinion before the entries, never mind the weights, are published.

As a by the by, the handicapper is quite capable of giving an Irish horse a low enough mark to ensure that it doesn't get in the race.
 
Stats never worry me with a bet - always odds to chance based - but the Irish have a very impressive record in this race recently.

Their runners to success rate is huge compared to UK based runners. But this is a massive problem in all handicap hurdles as our UK handicapper continually fails to get a firm grip on amending Irish marks to ensure the playing field is level.

In 2018 the Irish ran 5 of 24 in the Final. They finished 1st & 2nd - were unlucky with A Great View not to be 3rd or better as he was badly impeded. He won at Punchestown to show his mark was decent

In 2017 the Irish ran 5 from 24 in the Final. The only Irish horse to finish out the top 4 was a Willie Mullins 10yo who was allowed to win the Punchestown qualifier off 120 but ran off 139 at Cheltenham.

In 2016 the Irish had 3 of the top 6 home but*had just*6*of the 24 who contested the Final.
 
So by combining Ball Marks follow the Irish we have(only including those high enough to get in)

Not Many Left
Cuneo
Walk To Freedom
Thermocles(don't think will get in actually, this one goes too i think)
Sire Du Berlais
Cap York
La Toi Phil

So a maximum of 6/7 runners. Makes the race a bit easier eh?

Then add COD system opposing those who won qualifiers.

We are left with

Walk to Freedom
Sire Du Berlais
La Toi Phil.

There you go.

Easy
 
Vodkatini said:
So by combining Ball Marks follow the Irish we have(only including those high enough to get in)

Not Many Left
Cuneo
Walk To Freedom
Thermocles(don't think will get in actually, this one goes too i think)
Sire Du Berlais
Cap York
La Toi Phil

So a maximum of 6/7 runners. Makes the race a bit easier eh?

Then add COD system opposing those who won qualifiers.

We are left with

Walk to Freedom
Sire Du Berlais
La Toi Phil.

There you go.

Easy
Click to expand...

....I think a strong stat consideration is winning form over 3m or further.
 
I can't see A Toi Phil going. Fingers very crossed that Thermistocles gets in.
 
Vodkatini said:
So by combining Ball Marks follow the Irish we have(only including those high enough to get in)

Not Many Left
Cuneo
Walk To Freedom
Thermocles(don't think will get in actually, this one goes too i think)
Sire Du Berlais
Cap York
La Toi Phil

So a maximum of 6/7 runners. Makes the race a bit easier eh?

Then add COD system opposing those who won qualifiers.

We are left with

Walk to Freedom
Sire Du Berlais
La Toi Phil.

There you go.

Easy
Click to expand...

Done!

Although must be room for a few Irish to get in that are currently a bit below the requirement as the UK handicapper doesn't mind a fair rise for the Irish lot.

It's All Guesswork being one, for instance. Probably unlikely but could manage to get in.
 
Not Many Left won very easily & is still very much unexposed at the trip and/or six career runs.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
I doubt I’ll stray from Notwhatiam and First Assignment.

Notwhatiam has been hanging out the back of handicaps all season and was never put into the race when he qualified at Warwick. His mark could be borderline at 135 but this looks the target as they’ve run in two qualifiers (fell in the first try).

First Assignment has good C&D form and has been progressive this season. Has form behind Paisley Park and was then placed in the Warwick qualifier as well. He’s now rated 142 which will get him a run and certainly stays the trip well.
Click to expand...

I’ve still not changed my opinion yet. First Assignment even got another form boost since I posted it.
 
If a horse is too low to get in, you don't lose your money do you? Even without NRNB?

So for example, if It's all Guesswork doesn't get a high enough mark, if he effectively 'balloted out'? Or is it a Non Runner?
 
Kevloaf said:
If a horse is too low to get in, you don't lose your money do you? Even without NRNB?

So for example, if It's all Guesswork doesn't get a high enough mark, if he effectively 'balloted out'? Or is it a Non Runner?
Click to expand...

Non runner and you’d lose your money surely?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom